Falling prep school numbers

[abitgreen]

What level of pupil attrition would worry you in this economic climate?

Recently, one of the schools where friends of ours live suddenly folded. The main reason given for the financial failure of the school was low pupil numbers due to the economic climate (%). We are in a different area, but should I worry that the school I chose for DD only has seen its pupil numbers drop to only 66% over the past few years? I have checked the finances online and they are still turning a small profit.

Should I be worried that the school may fail if numbers may fall further, or take the view that they are currently managing and will be even better off if numbers increase?

I would be interested in what the school are doing to slow this fall. DD's school saw and initial fall in the recession it upped the anti on it's advertising and now numbers are stronger than ever. This included having a stand at the county show, an additional open day each year and new improved website.
If they are doing nothing I would worry that they are just hoping everything will be okay - to be frank it won't. All good businesses should be doing this.

I fully expect a number of Prep schols to fail in the next few years. Falling house prices and falling or static wages and unemployment all take their toll.

A school that is only 66% full is on the edge financially because they have high fixed costs and even a small further drop in pupil numbers will tip them over.

Our DSs Prep school is suported financially by its senior school but if it were stand alone it would have failed by now. Numbers have dropped by around 30% in the last few years.

I think it very much depends on the area. Prep schools, particularly the academically very selective ones in and around London have seen record number of applicants this year.

I agree SofaQueen. We left prep school 1 last year and both places were filled immediately - in fact the class size for both was increased from the promised maximum of 20 to 21 to accommodate a sibling in each case. Autumn last year both our boys joined prep school 2 having been on the waiting list for two terms.

Both are in Herts, both nice schools but not academically very selective in either case - it depends very much on the area. 66% would bother me to be honest.

I don't have direct experience but my father has been a governor of several prep school and with financial background advises on this. He warned me years ago that private prep schools find it very difficult to maintain their edge re: quality teachers, better resources and small classes over the medium term if they have less than 250 children - unless the fees are particularly high due to their reputation and prestige. Might be worth considering

Thank you for your replies.

This is a non-selective prep for pupils aged 3-11. Locally, the non-selevtive preps, that aren't attached to senior schools, aren't usually over-suscribed. I had thought that around 90% occupancy was typical. We are in a grammar school area, so many parents who may not otherwise have gone down the independent route, stretch financially to meet fees for prep school.

Numbers in this particular school have dropped by 30% (100 pupils) over the past few years (i'm sure this is purely due to the recession). They have recently increased the number of open days and have re-vamped their website (as have many local schools), so they don't seem to have given up.

Apparently, the school that closed had a break even point of 75% occupancy and had to close when numbers dropped to 56%. Is 75% occupancy a typical break even point, for small schools? Would it be better to see if there are any places left at another school that still has over 90% occupancy, even if I end up losing a terms fees, to avoid disrupting DD later on?

Sorry for all the questions.

Pinktele - local options, unless we commit to independent through to 18, are all small preps of around 160 pupils apart from our chosen school which used to run at around 300 pupils, until recently.