Birth rate

[kitkat1000]

Hi Just trying to second guess the number of kids starting school next year - bit OTT i know but worried about 2012 intake already! - does anyone know where i can find out information on local birth rate per year in a particular area? or the number of baptisms performed in a particular year - anything really which may give insight into whether the number of kids will increase/ decrease for 2012 intake. Please note where i live we don't see the movement many people do in big towns and cities. I live in a relatively small town and the school i'm interested in is the only catholic one.

Tried National Statistics and spent hours getting nowhere!

Many thanks for any ideas!

It's not OTT! If you're most/only interested in the Catholic one, go and arrange a visit. Look up your council's school application procedure - you will probably need something filled out by the local Catholic priest, whether it's a form or a letter or both, and as they can get busy with Easter/Christmas/baptisms/weddings/funerals, it is worth asking him how it works and get the paperwork out in advance.

The birth rate or list of 4 year olds starting school at the same time as your child is less relevant if you only want the Catholic school I would have thought. Our local Catholic school is quite popular and the priest told us the paperwork to apply would have to be done much earlier than for the usual state schools.

Also, the birth rate is misleading when you have families with older children (eg 2 or 3 year olds) born elsewhere moving in later who start school at the same time as your child. I was even thinking of GP registrations but these are confidential unless you are a public health official, and it really isn't against the law not to register your child with a GP (if you are rich enough to afford a private paediatrician each time your child is ill, you might not bother to register - just as a plausible but of course rare instance) and some people don't and just use A& E until the vaccination program catches up with them.......

The birthrate will actually not tell you the real story for any one year. The birth rate is on an annualised basis, which I think is Jan to Dec, but the figures that you need for school purposes are those that run Sept to Sept to fit with the school year and the admission arrangements. That is further compounded by the fact that people move and that you are looking for data for catholics born.
I would agree with southofthethames, go and talk to the priest about the general level of births and ask about the admission arrangements for the school. There could well be a faith determining admission criteria, such as regular attendance. I would also suggest that having talked tot he priest you check what has been said on the 2011-12 admission booklet for the LA. Priests have ben known to be a bit vague on the detail of admissions and the detail is all important.

The parish office should be able to tell you, although it will usually be for a particular calendar year (Jan to Jan). Also need a support form signed by local parish priest.. Hope this helps.

I would have thought your LEA could tell you if there was a birth rate bump in your area.

Many thanks for your comments - i forgot about the whole jan-jan period- bit daft of me! I will start with the priest and see generally if he has observed any increase in numbers at his services etc. Thanks again!

Schools themselves predict what their intake will be in future years (I've seen these from two separate schools)...they must get their info from somewhere. But where?

Just phone & ask the local school, our previous HT used to mention in passing if anticipated intake was high or low. Why wouldn't they tell you what their source was?

Near us it was a very low birth rate so lots of places at some schools available.

talk to preschool management, they will have an idea about how under/ over subscribed their sessions are with that cohort.

Try your local authority.

They will have a school planning officer (or someone with a similar title), who has the job of planning for future intakes, i.e. having to work out whether a new school (or two!) may be needed in the future.

Most authorities have a research team who provided data on birth rates for the school planning officer.

I say this as someone who is related to a school planning officer.

the 2008 national rate was a 36 year high, so it's not unreasonable to worry.

I've been looking at the trends in local catchments. They are all getting smaller year by year (by half in many cases this year) so it's a bit of a worry what will happen in 2012. I'm in London though.

You can't predict migration, though, many children go to school somewhere far from where they were born.
I bet it's higher only in some places.
2009 detailed Data.
I am still hunting thru this table but not sure it's broken down by district council.

Also, I've known head say "If you are not in catchment, you won't be offered a place" and "all baptised and children living within roughly 1/4 mile will be offered a place. So it may be easiest just to ask the head directly.

I have read about population growth in specific areas being so and so which also includes people moving into that catchment/ward/parish call it however you want. If you live in an area with affordable housing the population growth might be higher.

You can look at the child benefit statistics, showing how many people are claiming at 31st Aug each year (so fits with school years), but it only gives broad age groups, 0-5, 6-11 etc. Bit of a guide though and very local.

www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/child_benefit/smallareadata.htm

Thanks again for all your ideas! I will have a good look at some of these links- stressful times!