If schools don't predict a level 3 at KS1 do they think a level 5 unlikely at KS2?

[NorhamGardens]

I've heard from friends that sometimes if a child doesn't get a level 3 at KS1 targets can be set inflexibly going forward?

In other words less than a level 3 at KS1 may translate to a level 4 at KS2? The middle group being taught to lower NC targets than the higher group. Therefore unless you're plugging the gaps at home a level 5 at KS2 will be nigh on impossible to achieve?

I've seen how some lessons are differentiated and there is plenty of scope for the top group to pull further and further away from the others in terms of ground covered. It may be that some in the middle don't have a chance to prove their potential?

OP, I don't know if anyone else has said this (haven't read every post, sorry) but the point of SATs isn't supposed to show how clever or otherwise a child is - it's to show how well the school has taught a child & brought them on.

If a child gets a low result in Y2 (& in any case Y2 results aren't published any more??? so this is only for internal/parents' use) all it signifies is that if they get an equivalent result in Y6 the school has just kept them going along the same average line - but if they go on to get a better result than average in Y6, then the school has done a brilliant job (bells & whistles all round )

The average child is expected to move up 2/3 of a level each year. So if a child is 4C at the beginning of Y6, they would be expected to reach a 4A by the end.

Same for both maths and literacy.

A 2A or 3 at KS1 would result in a target of level 5 for KS2 SATs. These are felxible though, as in a child who gets lower than an 2a could be brought on to get a level 5. However, this is the standard target for children who do well in their KS1 SATs.

In 2009 4% of children acheiving a 2c in maths at KS1 went on to get a level 5 at KS2, for those obtaining a 2b and 2a the figures are 15% and 43% respectivly. The figures for English ( reading and writing combined) are 2c>5= 4%, 2b>5=12% and 2a>5=33%

"The average child is expected to move up 2/3 of a level each year. So if a child is 4C at the beginning of Y6, they would be expected to reach a 4A by the end."

Two sublevels isn't expected progress, it's good progress. Most schools, however, aim for good progress.

Expected progress is one and a half sublevels a year. E.g.

Y2 - 2b
Y3 - Halfway between a 2a and a 3c
Y4 - 3b
Y5 - Halfway between 3a and 4c
Y6 - 4b

It's easier to see when using APS points instead of sublevels - it's 3 points for expected progress and 4 for good progress.

Apologies - I have even bored myself now.

What's your source on that, spanieleyes - I was trying to find a link for it a while ago, and couldn't.

"It's the same when they come into Y3 with L3s. They are certainly not secure L3s and if they were immediately tested on a Y3 paper, they wouldn't actually reach a L3 at all. All it really means is that they are above L2 and starting to touch on what is required for L3."

I take issue with this particular piece of misinformation - Y2 assessment is based on many, many sources of sound information, not just the test.

Also, in our LEA we aren't allowed to enter children as a level 3 unless they are a solid level 3 - a 3c does not exist ofr us.

Your comments on level 5/level 6 are also similarly outdated - much more evidence is requires to award a level 5/6 than simply scraping a level in the test. We frequently have children who don't get any questions wrong at all in the tests, but a 5B/5A/6C requires much more evidence than this.

It's on the National Strategies site but, as usual, is almost impossible to find!
nationalstrategies.standards.dcsf.gov.uk/node/439223 should do it!

Thanks, spanieleyes

I agree with you, Feenie. Both my DDs did level 3 papers in Yr 2 and flew through them. DD1 is now in Yr 5 and expected to hit 5b in reading and writing and 5a in maths by the end of the year. She is no Einstein, but she has had some very good teachers who have brought out both enjoyment and achievement in the groups they are working with. DD2 is in Yr3, and is predicted a 4c in Maths and reading and a 4c in writing.

I'm also glad to hear that the KS2 SATs require more than perfect scores for the higher levels as I trust my DCs' teachers to get this right.

In 2009 4% of children acheiving a 2c in maths at KS1 went on to get a level 5 at KS2, for those obtaining a 2b and 2a the figures are 15% and 43% respectivly. The figures for English ( reading and writing combined) are 2c>5= 4%, 2b>5=12% and 2a>5=33%

So statistically a child that starts ahead stays ahead.

Level 2 English is huge (each sub level has the content of some full levels) so it is a bigger leap for a child on 2C compared to a child on 2B or 2A but far from impossible.

Cortina - So statistically a child that starts ahead stays ahead.

No - Only 68.8% of level 3 kids made a level 5. The other 30.9% only achieved a level 2. ( and 0.3% stayed a level 2!)

In fact you were most likely to make poor progress (1 sublevel instead of 2 ) if you achieved a level 3 at KS1

And most likely to make good progress (97.5% chance) if you achieved a level 2a in KS1 :)

Sorry

The other 30.9% only achieved a level 2 4

( and 0.3% stayed a level 2! 3 )

Again I would point to the Added Value aspect of Ofsted and have known of a teacher being persuaded to downgrade kids to 2 a the end of KS1 to get 5s in KS2 and this increases the added value for the school. My DS1 was 2c in writing and is now top set in Year 6 and currently a good 4a with the possibility of a 5. His maths is the same although he was a 2a a the end of KS1 so his English has improved more than his Maths during this period. He is also a summer baby.

Thanks for pointing that out, stats not a strength :) I thought that it was rather disappointing that only 4% of those with a 2C in maths went on to get a level 5 in KS2 (although appreciate these are only the stats for one year).

The kids who achieved a level 1 at KS1 are the group most likely to make 3 or more levels of progress. (38.7% of them)

And the kids who achieved a level 3 at KS1 are the group most likely to make only 1 level of progress (30.9%)

Indigobell - have to go to bed now, but can I ask why? regarding the stats that you posted on Friday at 15:59? thanks

Secondary schools round our way ignore our SATS (inaccurate term by the way) and use their own CATS scores to set. We all know who is "good" at what if we are good at our jobs. And it changes, somewhat over the years, owing to late development/early pushing/ whatever. But I think teachers do know, if they are any good, what individual kids can do at individual stages.

loveCheese - I can't tell you why. I can only tell you what the results were.....

Are you still around, OP?

Very interesting reading all the stats. thanks.

Does anyone know how all these KS1 and KS2 results reflect in GCSE's?

I'm hoping to get some info on my daughters levels at parents evening. She has some gaps due to missing school over here and I would be happy with 2b or 2a for her so hopefully she can do well over the coming years in the UK system. The improvements so far have been wonderful. She seems to be switched on to learning now and has a wonderful teacher. I'm hoping that because she won't get levels 3's it won't hold her back.

Thanks again to all the experienced posters.

I've been thrilled with parent's evening tonight. Her teacher was really happy with her progress and the best news for me was that she is working in a way that has helped her gain a huge improvement in her work and heading in the right direction. Her work books look absolutely nothing like the scribble writing she does at home and like she did when she became disheartened in her year 1 class abroad. It also made me think less about the levels because I could see how quickly things could change.

Her teacher had a lovely way of explaining things. I have total faith that she is giving my DD the best chance she can to develop and do well. Hope for a good teacher next year :)