Are the "Average" KS1 SATs scores likely to go up?

[lovecheese]

What I mean is, whilst wondering in an idle moment, if A* has been introduced recently at GCSE? A-level?, can't remember which, is the "average" of a 2B at present likely to be 2A in future? It seems that lots of mumsnetters report that their children are above average (me included ), if so will the goalposts be moved? Similarly will an average of 4B at KS2 become 4A??

The people who talk about results are a self selecting bunch. So I don't think you can draw any conclusions from the MNers. They are more likely to talk about results when their dcs are doing well, but are often not so keen to share when their dcs are average or below.

I think its unlikely that children have got significantly smarter over the years, though schools may have got better at "teaching to the test". So its not likely that the average/expected level will be changed.

The fact that the MNers who choose to mention their child's results tend to be above average is not a statistically-valid sample. For one thing, MNers may be likely to be the kind of parents who encourage their children at school, help with homework etc. For another, the MNers whose children are getting below the average score are probably less likely to post on a thread about it!

David Blunkett had changed it slightly -
2b and 3b became the 'expected' level, instead of the average, which I suppose means it's unlikely to be changed for the reasons you describe, lovecheese.

BTW, the comment about mumsnetters children being above average was meant to be tongue in cheek

The published figures for KS1 results do not seem to change much over time. The percentage of children achieving 2c 2b 2a etc stays broadly the same year on year and even the M/F breakdown shows little variation. Local Authorities push schools to try hard to raise the number of children achieving level 4 at KS2 but again, little changes.

The higher or above average results are frequently achieved by children whose parents take an interest in the childs progress - but was that not always so?
The 'average child' achieves an average of 6 points in their Rec year, achieves level 2b in Y2 and 4b in Y6. (By the time the children get to Y6 though the data returns are flat levels only so there is no differentiation between 4b / 4a)

It must therefore be the amazing transformation in the quality of teaching in our secondary schools which has led to the meteoric rise in the numbers of pupils achieving A/A* at GCSE!!!