...and then we had to self isolate.

[SupplyChainHusband]

Having 20 years experience in supply chain I'm thus very aware of what a disaster Dover will be in January (whether we get a deal or not) I've been building up a large stockpile for several months now. It also makes sense because my wife is 5 months pregnant and the last thing I want to do around Xmas is run around flapping about food and baby prep when she's that pregnant.

Self isolation hadn't occurred to me as being a threat but last weekend we hosted MIL and her friend Sarah. I had to work in an Amazon warehouse all weekend so saw very little of them but they thoroughly enjoyed a Sunday lunch in the pub whilst I toiled away.

Fast forward to last Thursday morning and Sarah texted at 7am announcing 1) she felt rough 2) she had overnight got an email announcing she's positive for Covid19. That got followed up within hours by MIL confirming she felt rough plus SIL and her fiance (who had been staying with MIL all week) saying the same. Then my wife's NHS covid app pinged saying she needed to self isolate immediately - but mine hasn't.

We are lucky work wise; having proved it by forwarding the NHS email to Amazon they'll pay me in full for the next two weeks to stay at home - if I go to the warehouse it's an automatic disciplinary - and my wife is a PA so will carry on working from home (she's done this for months already).

But we can't go out. We can't even walk our dog. Thank heavens for several months of food! Yesterday I made some muttar paneer (the recipe in Dishoom book is a lot of prep but incredible), some cauliflower cheese soup from frozen cauliflower and frozen cheese, tonight it'll be a chicken pasta bake (all from frozen or canned ingredients). I made some apple and berry compote to add to porridge made with some of the 15 litres of Oatly milk; we can easily sustain this because of the prepping we have done.

Damn it's boring though being stuck at home...

@SupplyChainHusband, With your experience of supply chain, how long are you prepping for post-Brexit?

4 months

hmm... four months you say... (not that surprised actually) it took quite a while for macaroni to come back into stock. (ds's favourite pasta) and often i am still not able to get various things.

staying at home is shit. and boring. we did it in March. ds has jsut done it for two weeks. have you got a garden or are you stuck indoors? suddenly the treats became really important.

I think I may have four months of spaghetti. (its comparatively small and fits in tight spaces) I have four decades of dried beans... but only because I use a mixture of different sorts when I do use them, and have lots of differents sorts and I have been too ill to use them in the last year.

we live in a flat so we can not store much. I can't wait until I can have my space back.

SupplyChainHusband thank you for saying you are prepping for 4 months.
Do you think milk supplies will be okay? I only have a small amount of Long life milk. I would probably be okay for pasta, rice, coffee and tinned tomatoes. I have a good supply of tinned meat that we eat anyway. Lots of pulses as we eat lots of soup made with that.
It is interesting that you work in the supply chain and think it won’t be robust enough for Brexit. Lots of people seem to think it won’t make any difference.

with milk: dd drinks soya as milk makes her feel ill. I have plenty of soya.

ds drinks milk as his choice of drink. or lemonade. I have lots of lemonade and some of the squash he will occasionally drink and tins of pop. (rather he drink pop than not drink at all.)

I have powdered milk so that I can give him any milk that I can source.

we produce enough milk to drink but not enough for chese and other products possibly? hence storing cheese, powdered milk, rice pudding and custard.

@Kitkatandcoffee and @BlackeyedSusan The reason I went for 4 months is because I read either all of the customs systems will come online by April at the earliest - or a hobbled together with string version will - but not before.

If it's really bad with widespread food supply chain disruption (both raw materials such as fruit, veg and flour but also processed foods such as cakes, biscuits and pies) them the UK electorate's patience will have run out by then and potentially there'll be widespread unrest plus maybe the government will have folded and called an emergency election. There's also the small matter of the 15-20% average household bill increase for groceries.

Examples of why I think there will be major problems:

1. Any animal food exports to the EU will now need vet clearance upon arrival before it can travel to its final destination. That's not just live animals but also dead ones in the form of ham, bacon, frozen burgers. Food manufacture (a lobby group for the industry pointed this out a few years ago). Overnight our vets will no longer have EU recognised qualifications nor will we have EU approved locations to certify the safety of our food meets the demanding EU regulations. See www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2017/04/05/UK-food-exports-to-the-EU-face-border-delays-and-rising-costs. That will cause delays for imports in French ports and it's only a matter of time before the backlog hits Calais, grinds it to a halt and ferries stop being allowed to dock because there's nowhere for the trucks to go due to a traffic jam waiting for import clearances. 60 hour queues on the Bulgarian / Turkish border are not uncommon for this reason.

2. We are dangerously dependent as a country on the Netherlands and Spain for fruit and veg and also on the Calais Dover route. The report reveals that 83% of the lettuces we import come via Dover, along with 67% of tomatoes and 77% of strawberries. A study by York university on our food vulnerability (www.york.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/2020/research/vulnerability-uk-food-supply-covid/) is worth reading, it ended up in the Sunday Times and Nature magazine.

3. The Daily Mail suggested queues of trucks could be 7000 long due to checks that will have to be applied in France (as they would for imports from any other non EU country). In a single line that would stretch from the channel tunnel to Thorpe Park (assuming they're all the max 16.5 metres and there's a 2 metre gap between each). It'll create permanent queues in Dover which will hamper trucks coming in who simply want to head out on their journey. Problem is, with such long queues few EU truckers will want to come into the UK because it'll take them several days to get back out afterwards (and if trucks aren't moving they aren't earning money); again it'll make it harder for food to be brought in.

4. On the subject of trucks, ref Kent permits (Kermits as I call them) for trucks to enter Kent - only issuable once all customs paperwork is complete - this is purely an attempt to avoid TV pictures of those insane queues. Bad news is that the IT system to issue them won't be available until April 2021 (www.theregister.com/AMP/2020/09/25/brexit_travel_permits_software_beta/).

5. Supply disruption to medicines are also very likely. Back before Covid last year, a government document was leaked that estimated in a worst case scenario throughput for medicines could drop to just 40 of current capacity (www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/news-in-brief/leaked-government-document-warns-of-severe-delays-to-medicines-supply-after-no-deal-brexit/20206967.article?firstPass=false) and that that situation could last for six months.

Interesting to me that the Brexit timetable of having these systems ready by next April coincides with having their health passport systems up and running by then too.

I wonder if the big red button on cash will be pushed as well during this time.

I do think it's going to be rough for people if they are still being furloughed on less pay than they would get working or have lost their jobs and then Brexit comes along on top of dealing with all that.

Do you have a garden? If so I suppose at least you could get out into that for fresh air. Any diy jobs needing done? If you have the equipment and skills and don't feel rough then maybe you could find time to do some. Probably a good thing to do is set a routine for every day that you are stuck at home, so exercise at a certain time every day and so on. Or just enjoy the paid break.

Personally I think April is optimistic on the grounds that I've never seen any large scale IT project be delivered on time

We have a 100 foot garden so our dog is getting plenty of exercise running up and down chasing balls; fortunately we have got a dog walker in next week to exercise him because he's understandably climbing the walls.

As for DIY there's a lot to be done but we rent. The primary concern is the mould on the wall of the nursery to be but we won't use it until probably September next year give or take so there's time to fix it although I suspect the whole of the outside wall (runs down the length of the house) needs re-rendering and that's not quick or cheap.

Given its not our house to maintain (not allowed), I've been hammering the cooking by raiding our brexit stash. I have made cauli cheese soup, apple and berry crumble, apple pie, deliciously Ella five ingredients breakfast cookies, today will be Mary berry chocolate brownies and potato and leek soup and maybe for the hell of it a slow cooker bean stew (Tupperware permitting).

Yes I know what you mean about IT.

Looks like you've plenty to keep you busy today then!

We started growing food in our garden this year, so we have sprouts, carrots, potatoes, squash etc for over winter. Keeps us busy at times too. Probably plant some garlic today.

It's rubbish you can't even walk your dog. Can't imagine if you lived in a flat with a dog and had to self isolate.

Did you have to take a test? Are you feeling unwell yourself? And how are the rest of the family who are affected? Hopefully they are all doing as well as can be expected.

Imagine living in a flat with an autistic tween who is self isolating and not allowed outdoors for two weeks....

Oops no I don't have to.

I hope they would have sorted something by April because the population will not tolerate it that long. We are a "civilised" country and all that, but casting a quick glance over history...other countries have had a rapid decent into chaos.

Finding it difficult to believe it could happen to us, yet preparing as the government looks completely unprepared for what is about to hit. It is like nodding along to other posters saying treats will be important and sticking some in the stash but not really understanding how important they will be until I was in a two week lock down not able to go outside at all with two autistic children in a flat. Normalcy bias? It is difficult to contemplate that it could actually happen to us. But looking at government lack of planning, what trade associations have been saying for years, and what happens every time there is snow, and supermarkets around lockdown

Needless to say, I am working on the stashing, nagging ex to get his freezer. Going to venture out to an actual shop to get food this week too.

Thank you @SupplyChainHusband. I need to go and re-check my spreadsheets now.

Thank you SupplyChainHusband all your information was really helpful, bit worried about my meds though. :(

@BlackeyedSusan yes I moved out of a flat last year. Very lucky. I have 5 children so having the garden during lockdown has been a godsend.

Yes it seems all the decisions were thought out by the very fortunate who could not even imagine what life for those stuck in tower blocks etc could possibly be like during what was basically medical martial law.

And yes I think you are spot on about the treats and activities to keep going during these times, it can make all the difference.

So..has anyone got four months worth yet? ( Apart from dried beans, I am always over optimistic on how organised I will be soaking and cooking them)

I am starting to near it. My landlords washing machine has died so I suggested we install ours. If we can and then get rid of his that'll create a nice freezer sized hole in the shed and you'd better believe I'm going to stick a 3rd freezer full of frozen veg in there.

@BlackeyedSusan I don’t.
I Worked out I have 6 weeks The only thing I would need would be milk. I have got long life but not keen on the taste unless it’s in homemade rice pudding, custard or macaroni cheese. I have a good selection of food but I did notice I need more tinned veg. I have lots of rice and pasta. Which we will eat over time. If Brexit doesn’t affect food supply I will have a while of cheap shopping.

@BlackeyedSusan try Oatly. If you like it you can get it in bulk at Costco or via Amazon to beat the supermarket price a wee bit.

two of us are sorted for long life milk. that will allow Ds to have what fresh I can get hold of. Also stocking up on other stuff he will drink. (Fizzy pop mainly)

Hearing the news that BJ is saying openly prepare for no deal makes things feel more visibly urgent. Not expected anything else but it being more openly talked of feels like it is more real.

I have lost count of what we do have. There are bits here, there and everywhere. Nearly every nook and cranny is filled. I can't guarantee that everything is at the same level. Definitely have enough dried beans and spaghetti. We use a lot of tinned tomatoes. There just is not enough room to store them. Would like to add more but where to put them. Having said that I have quite a bit of passata

Not anywhere near on frozen veggies. Injured myself and still have one freezer turned off somewhere inconvenient. Need to get it moved and fill it. Ex is promising to buy his tonight. He doesn't have one at all.

Baked beans are sorted. Loo cleaner sorted. Loo roll sorted though I need to buy a pack to replace what we are using.

Now I am buying stuff to fit the last available spaces.

These are fascinating insights thank you. Hope you and your family are OK OP

I have many multiples more than we had at the beginning of the year but def not 4 months worth, maybe one for some things (meat, fish, chips, veg, fruit), two for others (Heinz, pasta, tins, bread flour, tea, coffee), three for toiletries and cleaning stuff.

when I think of what we buy and consume in a week it seems impossible and literally only weeks to go. I am grateful that we are in a better position than most though

Oh drat. I thought we were over this. Better start getting an extra bag of beans here and there.

Place marking. We moved a lot of our supplies today. I need to properly get my head around it. Before DDs left for Uni the “helpfully organised” the cupboards 🤦‍♀️

OP in your position I suggest you order from a supermarket.

I’ve taken to growing veg this year. Thankfully I’ve been able to find space in the garden. I was so annoyed with myself this week as I had thrown a few bags of shopping into the back room and meant to unpack them, but was busy. Just realised that I forgot I’d bought some packets of pitta bread and forgotten about them, they’re off now. I hate wasting what little money I have.

Kermits

Ugh.

I was here for the COVID prepping from January and now I am back for this shitshow.

I'm not even a prepper...and yet here I am for the second time in one year!

DH & I haven't been employed since Feb though due to COVID so very little we can do now apart from get an extra couple of things each week.

On the upside I bought so much rice for COVID we are still less than half way through 🤣

Is there a general ongoing thread for Brexit preps or is this the start of one following the shitty state of negotiations this week?