Probability of birth on a particular day

[JonCassidy]

When my wife was pregnant, I wondered always if this would be "the day".

So I found some NHS statistics (of 640,000 births), and worked out some probabilities.

The result is at www.jcassidy.f2s.com/DueDate.html . You put in your due date, and any other date, and it tells you the probability of the baby arriving then.

It's also an iPhone app ("Baby Today Free"). I hope it's amusing for some people.

Sorry Jon, I think you're stats are rather out!
It suggests that my most likely date is tomorrow (38+4) and decreasing after that. Not true for caucasion women who are more likely to give birth at 41 weeks. I think you've maybe worked out population statistics, so less babies will be born, once some have already been born, but this doesn't give individual probabilities.

Fun idea though, liked its concept!

It's not a formula system - it's based on the actual birth week of 640,000 babies in the UK. There are (small) inaccuracies in the calculation, but the stats say that week 40 is the most likely in the UK.

The oddest thing is how unlikely the actual due date is.

Jon, you have to pay to advertise. And really, it's a baby, not a maths equation