I had a third degree tear last time and I'm also due to give birth just after a year from my last.
I have spoken at length with the consultant midwife and she said I won't necessarily tear again, and there's especially no guarantee of tearing to the same degree.
She was more focused on how I've recovered, that seems to have been the guiding factor in how she advised me.
I recovered very well and I am still seeing my women's physio now.
So for me it's the chance of a tear (that I've experienced before so know what I'm dealing with) versus the obvious guarantee of quite major surgery which of course can come with its own complications.
I have an additional factor in my decision making which is that I hate, hate, hate hospital.
I had an amazing home birth last time but I had to go in afterwards to be sewn up, and I'm very keen to avoid hospital completely this time - which obviously wouldn't be possible with a C-section unless they want to come and do it in my living room in!
So, the questions to ask yourself are,
How well did you recover?
Do you have any longer lasting issues from the tear?
Have you spoken to someone about your previous birth to find out if there were factors involved in why your tore?
Can those things be avoided this time?
Did you have a very quick labour with the induction?
Do you have the support for C-section recovery?
Would highly recommend talking to the consultant midwife at your hospital as well as the Obstetric consultant, they may well have different viewpoints to consider.
Saying all that, I'm still not 100% decided and going round in circles as like you I have a lingering worry about further damage but then I think about having a C-section and feel in my bones that I don't want one. I loved giving birth last time and this will be my last time to experience it.
Sorry not sure if that's been helpful in the slightest - just rambling!