The odds game - nuchal scan

[Nimme]

I had 12 week scan today which included a nuchal scan. All looked fine - TG.

My question is this

I am 33 (DH is 51). Our odds for having a down's syndrome baby were put at 1:1134. The woman who scanned us was not particularly helpful as to the good/bad of this number - although I know it isn't too bad. I just seem to remember when having DD (5 years ago) the odds (based on a blood test) came back at 1:10000.

Is there any point in having a blood test as well - or any other tests??

Any advice please??

Nimme -I would have thought that was a very low risk - I've heard of other women with much 'higher' risks and everything was still fine. I'd be pleased with that result, but it's such a personal thing and you've got to consider what you'll do with any additional information once you've got it. Bunny recently started a thread about risk factors on these scans, have you had a read through that?
hana

I think that given your age, those odds seem pretty favourable - they are age adjusted. But you have to remember, that with a 1 in 10,000 risk, you could still be that one. I would second what hana said - you need to decide what you would do if you discovered you were having a baby with Downs. The risk given is only a probability. I don't think the non-invasive procedures can ever give a definite yes/no.

Hope the pregnancy goes well.

Btw, didn't mean to imply you are old!!!! (Takes foot out of mouth) - simply that you are 5 years on from last time.

Message withdrawn

I'd be delighted wiht that one Nimme. I think a high risk is categorised as 1:300 or 1:250, still pretty good odds. My nuchal scan result came back in 1:44 which upset me alot (still does) but I declined an amnio as even a 1:44 gives a 97% chance all is ok. I was advised against blood tests as they often contradict the nchal scan result and that becomes confusing, the other tests carry a high risk of miscarriage so with your odds I'd definately resuse them. Pls do try not to worry, your odds are very good. The other thread hana mentions is the Amniocentesis fears one, I'll find it for you.

here it is

Yes, though odds are fairly good, though as the others have said, no guarantee. The Harris Birthright Centre suggests further tests if the nuchal comes out at 1:300 or lower. Bear in mind any invasive risks have a risk of miscarriage of at least 1:300 (usually quoted around 1:100).

I think you got it spot on with the title of this thread! They can never give us a yes/no answer, just a number and in a lot of cases (inc. my own) sod all information on what sort of odds that really represents.

Your odds sound v good Nimme, what they call "screen negative" i.e. don't worry. There are so many things we can worry about and the medics are only there to look for problems - that's what every single one of the appointments is about after all!

Congrats on getting to the 12 week milestone, that's fab!

Thank you for all your replies. I'm sure I went through the same worries first time round but have suppressed them.....

Bunny2 - I must seem like a complete whinger to you. Thank you for finding link for me.

The problem is now there is time to have more tests etc and therefore have to make decisions - want someone to make for me!

And one more thing - is it genetic? My uncle has down's (still going strong at 52).

There are rarer cases of Down's which are caused by translocations; if you are a carrier of a translocation (basically one bit of a chromosome being wrongly attached to another one) then it can be genetic in that if you have one child with DS your chances of a subsequent child having DS are much higher than the general population. Your uncle's parents might know if they were carriers, but if not I would rest assured that it's incredibly unlikely that you are at increased risk just because your uncle has DS. You could in theory get your blood tested to see if you're a translocation carrier and then decide whether to have an amnio, but I doubt whether it's worth it. 1/1134 sounds pretty good to me