Travel to Antigua in Feb and scared of zika virus

[Campo123]

Hello,
I am 13 wks pregnant with my fourth. Last week, with my husband's blessing/encouragement, I did something very spontaneous the other day and booked a trip to Antigua with my 8 year old daughter for Feb half term. Paid everything up front. Literally right after I booked my sister sent an article re cdc advising pregnant women to avoid travel to certain Caribbean/South American countries due to the zika virus, which causes foetal abnormalities and for which there is no cure or treatment. Antigua is not currently on the list of the countries to avoid, but it does appear that mosquitoes are a problem there, and I happen to be a magnet for them.
Saw my OB today who was ambivalent. On one hand, he said it was more of a south/Latin American virus; on the other, he said that he would be happy to write a letter.
I feel deep down that the odds of my contacting this virus in a zone not previously affected are probably slim to none. I also know that I will, even if I take the most vigilant precautions (repellent, long sleeves, etc), be bitten as I always am, and I fear that the stress of worrying about the baby's wellbeing may well outweigh the enjoyment of a Caribbean holiday.
My other fear is that, if I cancel, I will not be reimbursed! Was going to get travel insurance tomorrow but is it too late at this point?
So sorry for the long post am new to this! and many thanks in advance for any advice/experiences you can share.

"Almost half of the 4000 suspected cases in Brazil have also been discovered to just be babies with naturally smaller heads."

This is not the case (though I understand from another thread yesterday there was a terribly badly worded piece on a US news website).

In looking at zika in affected children, figures yesterday/day before were 270 cases confirmed, 3448 still under investigation.

None (as yet) ruled out.

"The figures point to the irregulated mandatory vaccine Brazilian women were given that seems to be the main contender for the deformities."

If it were the case, the cases would not be clustered in a specific region, they would be spread across the country. And there would have been no outbreak in French Polynesia.

I can assure you my sources are not from vaccine phobic propaganda. I have been researching every article, every statistic, all updated government information and the numbers do not add up.
The outbreak in French Polynesia can not be confirmed as linked to Zika and they have speculated that this must be the cause because of the numbers from Brazil which are not accurate, if they were able to show concrete proof that Zika was caused by no these babies to have deformations they would have officially announced it, which they haven't.
All I am saying is don't believe the scaremongering media hype, when making your decision. In 59 years since the Zika virus made its presence known it has never been recorded to cause this outcome and it is very coincidental that the epidemic strictly in Brazil at this time were administered with the vaccine.

All I am saying is don't believe the scaremongering media hype, when making your decision

Let's hope for your unborn child's sake that you are right then.

I've never been to Antigua and not been bitten though, despite lots of precautions.

I am pregnant with twins, conceived with one ovary which I was told by Drs was a miracle..... To then find out it happens all the time. Human nature is to exaggerate and make up what we don't know!!

The media are the worst for it and have possibly caused countries that rely on tourism to keep afloat a massive problem with their misinformation.

Of course zika hasn't previously been found to cause microcephaly- it's been in its original host community where people catch it as children, have a generally mild illness And are then immune.
Now it's spread to an immunologically naive population. Adults of child bearing age are arching it.

The level of evidence you need to say unequivocally that X causes y is extensive. Right now zika is the most likely candidate and that's why the cdc are making their recommendations.

Can you elaborate on why you think the numbers don't add up? They add up to me and they add up to the experienced epidemiologists at the cdc.

I would avoid Antigua if pregnant. The individual risk of being bitten by a zika carrying mozzie is low but the consequences are about as high as they can be.
The chances are that zika is already in Antigua. The vector (Aedes) is there already, there's good flow of visitors from infected areas and the infection is mild and so will likely not be detected until there have been many cases. That will take a while.

It's up to you if you go or not but please make sure you're taking that desicion based on the correct evidence. The fact you think it's down to the Tdap vaccine means you're not! I don't mean that nastily but if you can't see why it's not a candidate based on basic epidemiology, you're not understanding the evidence you're reading correctly.

"if they were able to show concrete proof that Zika was caused by no these babies to have deformations they would have officially announced it"

No-one is saying there is concrete proof, and if you are reading articles which claim this, then they are not from reliable sources.

There is a association, which currently falls short of absolute proof, but is sufficiently strong for precautionary measures to be warranted.

That viral disease in a pregnant mother can damage the development of the foetus is established beyond doubt (eg rubella causes a number of issues, including microcephaly). In Brazil and in French Polynesia, there has been a spike in microcephaly at the time this virus arrived in those countries. The spike did not occur at times or places that fit any vaccination programme.

I am at work at the moment but will absolutely get the statistics I have written down with regards to Zika cases:microcephaly numbers in other countries, once I have finished tonight.

Here is a patient information leaflet on Zika virus in pregnancy produced by the UK teratology information service (I work there!). It was updated yesterday so contains all of the most up to date info. Feedback very welcome

www.medicinesinpregnancy.org/Medicine--pregnancy/Zika-virus/

But it's irrelevant if there are fewer microcephaly cases in areas where zika is endemic. in places where it's endemic people catch it as children and are immune before child bearing age.

In Brazil it's new - it's never been found here before. No one caught it as a kid, no one is immune. Women of child bearing age are catching it when pregnant and thats the likely cause of the birth defects you wouldn't expect to see birth defects in any country with endemic zika after a decade or two.

A causative relationship can (and possibly will) be ascertained by using only the cases in Brazil. WHO are gathering evidence but until they are absolutely 100% sure they won't say 'this is the cause.' To establish causality you need to prove the agent is both necessary and sufficient to cause the problem - the bar is quite high!

Honestly, if your travel company are willing to refund, I'd go elsewhere. It's likely zika is there, it's almost impossible to avoid getting bitten (trust me, I've lived and worked in places like this) and the outcome of a bite could be catastrophic.
It's only a holiday, and lovely as it would be, it's just not worth the risk.