Could I have a lower Downs Risk or do I go by the general stats

[Mumfun]

Hi

Im considering whether to try for another child or not. Im 41 and have had 2 lovely children at ages 38 and 40 (DD born 9 days before my 41st birthday)

One important factor for us is whether I might have a lower risk of DOwns than that generally stated. I have had non Downs children at 38 and 40 and no MCs. So could I consider that my personal risk is lower?

The odds are a bit scary at age 41/42 so just wanted to know if I could be thinking along more positive lines.

No offence to anyone with DS children - I just want to weigh up my whole situation with the best information I can get. I know for example that MC risk is high and chances of conception not the greatest in the first place but I am prepared to live with those.

ANy help appreciated

Thanks MF

I think that unless you had been pregnant lots of times you don't have enough data points (pregnancy outcomes) to be sure of anything.

Good luck anyway.

The general risk is just that, general. Applies to the whole population of that age. If you get pregnant and have a 12 week nuchal fold test it will give you a clearer picture of the odds for that particular baby (although still could be 1/500 which sounds reassuring but doesn't mean yours won't be the one). AFAIK having two unaffected pregnancies doesn't mean anything about the next one - every egg is unique.

Did you have nuchal scans with your 2 children?

Hi

Yes I had nuchal scans. They were both more positive than the general stats but any nuchal scan would still give me a high risk now as the risk is influenced by age.

Thanks

Heather

Every pg is unique - I don't believe it's ever safe to make assumptions based on any statistics.

it does make a difference - my dd1 was born with down syndrome and so I have an increased chance compared with the 'general' population due to my personal history. I am now 38 (was 37 when I got pregnant) with no 3 due in March. My chance on paper was 1 in 58 given my age and history... after nuchal fold screening my chance came back as 1 in 969 - the same as a 26yo without my personal history so it may be a higher risk due to age but it can be a lower risk too.

I have two children - one with down syndrome and one without. So each pregnancy is different.

Hi

Thanks Eidvold. That was what I was trying to get at. I hope Ive got a slightly lower risk with my history and also no Downs in my family or DHs. I know that increases risk.

Think I will take the risk but dont know what Ill do re invasive testing if Im lucky enought to get PG. wasnt prepared to do it before but dont know this time

I'm not sure if I can explain this very well, but no, your risk is no lower. Eidsvold's is higher because she has a child with DS as that's a relatively rare event- non-DS pregnancies are not rare, so the risk calculations are right.

but each person is different and if I take my dd1 out of the equation my chance is something like 1 in 100 and something. But after nuchal fold testing it is now 1 in 969(similar to that of a 26yo - I am 38) for this pregnancy. So your chance can be lower than the general population.

but you won't know what your personal risk for this pregnancy is without nuchal fold testing - iyswim.

No eidsvold, I fully understand all that. The point I am trying to make is that having had a child with DS has far more effect on your chance of having a child with DS in subsequent pregnancies than NOT having had a child with DS has on your chance of not having a subsequent child with DS.

yes my risk is higher than the general as I already have a child with ds BUT if i didn't have a child wtih ds then my risk would be the same as a woman my age unless I had nuchal fold and bloods and if possible nasal bone detected....

Just to throw a complete spanner in the works, my DD3 has Downs, but not the standard trisomy 21 type. Its a translocation type which is sometimes hereditary. I realise that confuses the issue completely, but in my opinion, which I know you weren't asking for, each pregnancy needs to be approached individually, the risk IS there. You can only decide for yourself whats acceptable to you, will you test, will you terminate, will you just see what happens anyway....
No help whatsoever I'm sure, but best wishes to you anyway!

headless girl - did you and your partner than have to also have some testing regarding that type? Just interested. My dd1 has bog standard trisomy 21.

know very little if anything about translocation.

I am really not trying to say you in your individual case have a higher risk eidsvold, just trying to answer the OP. Theheadlessgirl, your case is very relevant, because it's rare translocation carriers who affect the statistics.

Yes we both had genetic tests which showed DD3 translocation was a chance occurrance not hereditary. We decided to find out as there would then be implications for our siblings and 2 elder DD. but as it happens, no implications, just chance, and it brought home to me you can't plan your life too much. I wouldn't want to!

it is just amazing how it can jsut happen isn't it. I was agreeing with you tamummy

Sorry eidesvold, that sounded much more snippy than I meant it to

Friends?

hi

thanks so much for that. Tamummy I completely understood what you were saying. The risk is general.

See where you are all coming from though too.

Have to discuss with DH again so he understands.

Thanks again