Oh goodness, far too much to write down because then id need to admit it.
Just sizing up would never have worked for me as I had a noticeable bump from about 15wks and was massive bump wise from about 23wks. However, I didn't put too much weight on everywhere else. I tried sizing up but to fit bump I needed to size up 3 or 4 sizes which of course looked ridiculous and wouldn't stay up. I was always getting sympathetic looks and people saying 'not long now' from about 23/24wks because I always had a massive bump. So, the point is you really need to judge that one by how your bump grows.
We had a cotbed, crib and moses basket which was overkill. They use the moses basket for just a few months if at all and they can go straight into the cot from birth no problem especially if you have room for it in your room.
We also spent a lot on beautiful John Lewis nursery furniture for a room that baby rarely was in. The crib is suitable until 6mths and he slept in there in our room. By the time he moved to his own room at 6mths we couldn't use the changer as he was crawling and everything else just seemed like such an unnecessary extravagance.
You could always start off with the basics and see what you need as you go along. Or grab a few staple bargains then add on as necessary.
Oh re baby clothes; I know you'll get told that you get so much you will barely need any newborn stuff. Well, our experience was that everyone seemed to assume that too and bought us a few sizes up so we ended up with lots of 0-3, 3-6 and even 6-9 but very few newborn bits.
One last thing! If you can afford it then the best thing we ever bought was the sleeping/breathing monitor. I think ours was about £80. Some have a bad reputation for going off for no reason but we never had that problem. It went off once, with DS2 when he had actually stopped breathing and needed to be hospitalised so as you can imagine, I feel very grateful that we had it. Ours was called Babysense.
Good luck!