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Pregnancy

Talk about every stage of pregnancy, from early symptoms to preparing for birth.

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Original poster

Downs risk - someone talk some sense into me!

19 replies

Rhinestone · 18/01/2012 21:06

Ok, just been given good results following NT a week ago and blood test, risk is less than 1 in 900 but I am now worried (of course I am, worrying is my favourite pastime) that it isn't 1 in 5,000.

Please will someone come along and slap me. Thank you.

Am worrying soooo much with this pregnancy it's ridiculous.

OP posts:

Are your children’s vaccines up to date?

Set a reminder

alittlesurprise · 18/01/2012 21:13

That's really good you know!

I am not 100% sure but they sort of base into calculations your age, so if you are older they increase the risk to show for it. How old are you? If you are a bit older than average maybe that is the reason.

I remember with my DD I was about 1 in 600 and I was 32 years old.

Original poster

Rhinestone · 18/01/2012 21:16

I'm 36. I know I'm being stupid but part of the problem is I have no understanding of statistics etc so I'm just looking at that figure and thinking, "But that is less than 20% as reassuring as it could be." i.e. compared to the best result of less than 1 in 5,000.

I suspect I'm being stupid and that's not the way to look at it.

OP posts:

AmethystMoon · 18/01/2012 21:21

I got odds of 1:42 4 weeks ago, was worried sick even though it actually meant I had a 97.5% chance of not having a baby with downs. Your percentage risk of there being a problem is extremely small. I would never judge you for worrying though as I've just been through a very stressful time not knowing. In the end I had an amnio last week and have since had the all clear. If you really can't relax and it is affecting your health you could pay for an amnio but the risk of miscarriage as a result is much more likely 9x more likely than your risk of downs. I'd never slap you for worrying but I'd have been delighted with a risk of 1:900 my age alone would put me at 1:260. Your 20 week scan will tell you more or you could go to the feral
Medicine centre for an early anomaly scan at about 16 weeks which might help to reassure you. Good luck and best wishes for a healthy pregnancy

alittlesurprise · 18/01/2012 21:23

Just had a little search and they do use the mothers age in the calculations. So the very low 1 in 5000 is probably achieved by the young mothers with absolutely no risk factors. So in your case, I'd consider 1 in 900 to be excellent. It really is very low.

AmethystMoon · 18/01/2012 21:24

Oops meant fetal medicine centre not feral! I am also 36, your risk due to age is same as me 1:260, this means you have odds 3 and a half times better than someone of your age would normally have... This is fantastic news! Be happy

Lovemarmite · 18/01/2012 21:25

1 in 900 seems a good result to me.
At my age (38) I've seen that the websites quote 1 in 150 which sounds high risk (gulp) but if you look at it in %'s it's actually 99.5% chance which sounds way better.
I've not had my NT scan yet as only 10 weeks but hope to have it in a few weeks, it's very worrying but it doesn't help the worry with stats that seem very hard to get heads round.
I've looked at your age range and it's 1 in 270 and so your result is really positive!
Did the hospital advise you on your result? if they say it's good, then they may not be offering the further tests and you can put your mind at rest a bit.

Northernlurker · 18/01/2012 21:26

Thing is if you had 1 in 5000 - somebody still will be the 1 won't they? Nothing can ever be 100% with stats - and there's tons you don't know, nobody ever can know. You can effortlessly drive yourself mad with this. As far as DS goes your chances are low. Your baby appeared very healthy at the scan. You're doing fine And breatheeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Original poster

Rhinestone · 18/01/2012 21:27

Thanks Amethyst, so glad for you that all is well with your pregnancy and I now feel a complete idiot for starting this thread.

I think I need to just get a grip of myself.

OP posts:

Chubfuddler · 18/01/2012 21:28

You wouldn't put your last tenner on a horse at 900 to 1.

I know that probably isnt reassuring and this sort of thing is why I didn't have the blood test with either of my babies.

Original poster

Rhinestone · 18/01/2012 21:29

x-posted with everyone else, thanks all! It's slowly sinking in that I may in fact have nothing to worry about, not sure what I'll do with my time now!

OP posts:

Chynah · 18/01/2012 22:00

I had 1:12 risk and all was fine.

It can only calculate probability and if it's 1:2 or 1:5000 it makes no difference if you hapen to be the "1". The only way to be ttally sure is invasve testing Amnio/CVS)

patsdeadfrank · 19/01/2012 07:52

dp had a 1 in 10 for dd. she was fine.

AmethystMoon · 19/01/2012 12:35

Don't feel like an idiot Rhinestone , you're just a mum who is worried about her child and that's the most natural instinct of all. It sounds like we've lessened your worries though, so that is great :)

StarlightMcKenzie · 19/01/2012 12:45

I had a risk of 1 in 3000 for ds for downs who was subsequently dx with autism.

You have to find a way of coping with lifes risks for your child otherwise you are going to be too anxious to parent effectively. There are never any guarantees and no-one is entitled to a 'perfect' child.

bansku · 19/01/2012 13:25

I got 1:500 in my first pregnancy and the child was fine. I was 34 years old. Then i thought it was a good result. Later on, after giving birth, I heard that some people got results 1:5000 etc.
In this pregnancy I got 1:3 for downs syndrome. I went for amnio and it came back clear. If the results have gone back 1:240, I would have not had amnio because of the risks. 1:3 was so high risk that I had to know.

So you never know...

BatCave · 19/01/2012 13:36

I had 1 in 69 with my DD (now 19months) and we were all good. You are not stupid and don't need a slap though. The result we had stressed us out for a long time and we won't be having the bloods/NT this time around.

I ended up thinking of it this way: 1 in 900 means 899 out of 900 there won't be downs. Or.. you have a 0.1% chance... its not much is it? :)

minitoot · 19/01/2012 13:42

The midwife says I am 1 in 450 based on my age (34), so you're doing better than me! :) But it's still less than 1% risk. Or more than a 99% chance the baby will be fine. As someone said above, you wouldn't bet on a horse with those odds...

Cosmo89 · 19/01/2012 15:26

I was told that the 'average' or expected stats for my age - at 33 - would be 1 in 500 and something. So you must be well above the average for your age if you're nearly twice mine. Not that 3 years is much more but I'm sure it makes a difference on the stats.

OTTMummA · 19/01/2012 16:15

I got my results today, 1 in 100,000, i didn't think you could get that!
I had cousin with downs pass very young because of heart defects when i was a teenager,, told mum and she is extremely happy, as am i of course.
I know what you mean op, i am still worrying about all the other possiblities, extensivly worrying about conditions in the family etc.
But i guess theres not much else we can do but wait.

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