What are they doing?

[noddyholder]

Do you think the constant drip drip leaks of bad economic forecasts and news are to prepare us for the budget because it is going to be even worse than we can imagine OR are they painting a black picture so that when the truth finally outs we will be nderwhelmed and think its not as bad as predicted?

Has to be a bit of both rather than an 'either/or'. A lot of people are going about things in blase fashion at the moment, not really having had their lifestyles altered by the events of the last year and a half, not saving, not changing their spending habits. The misplaced 'let's keep spending' optimism of the last government needed to be corrected with some swift lowering of expectations.... Darling promising bigger cuts than under Thatcher got swept under the carpet..... so the messages have been repetitive and hard-hitting. And if we think it's going to be worse than it actually is, then no-one's going to be upset by the reality.

I'm not sure given all they've said about the Military Covenant, and the rise in payments to those in theatre, that there will be huge defence cuts. In any case, defence cuts won't come on June 22nd, but after the SDSR in the autumn. They need to do a defence review first, before any decisions can be made about cuts. Given that numbers are at a low at the moment, and given the tasking of HM Forces, I would think the RAF could absorb some cuts, but the RN and the Army would have difficulty; the former in particular seeing how overstretched they have been for the past 25 years.

According to Liam Fox the MoD won't be having emergency surgery, just elective surgery as there is a certain amount of ringfencing for defence.

We are all aware that there will be a shake up for Defence (those of us in the Defence community), but the encouraging thing is that this will be tied into foreign policy, so we will get the resources to carry out the tasking. Dr Fox also said that he thinks the RN has taken too much of a hit, and with the anti piracy operations, and energy security being high on the agenda (both RN areas), then hopefully the RN won't for a change be slashed, and we may still get the carriers. It will be interesting to see who the new CDS is, now Jock has his marching orders.

The money goes to the wrong places in Defence; instead of refurbing the main building, they should have done the married quarters for the lower ranks. They need to drive procurement costs down.

What is also encouraging is that Dr Fox answers his emails (or his PA does), and that he is visible - Afghanistan and he was here in Brussels last week. He also seems to feel engaged with Defence which is more than can be said for the last shower, bar John Reid. As a Dr he should know however, that if you cut too deeply you get to bone, and it has been feeling like that for a while now.