Is anyone in Oxford West/Abingdon? What the hell happened?

[TheHeathenOfSuburbia]

How did Evan Harris lose his seat on such a massive swing? What happened?!

I went to bed last night thinking Lib Dems were going to lose a few seats, but a 13% swing? WTF? Did he punch a granny in the face or something?

Must be really sickening to lose by such a small margin.

I was thinking about this last night - the next election in this seat (whenever that is - might not be so far off!) could end up being a real lightning rod for various implacably opposed factions. Obviously the hardline anti-abortionists/Christians are already geared up; now all of EH's supporters will be geared up too. Could get ugly.

True. Although I think that if the parties don't find a way to make to govern with the results they have got, and if they therefore call another election within the next 18 months, the Lib Dems will be destroyed. People will be put off coalition governments, and therefore PR, and therefore the Lib Dems. EH will be exceptionally lucky if he gets his seat back in an early election.

I think he would get it back if the LDs got PR, with a Tory or 'rainbow' alliance. Labour did pretty well in West Oxford, mainly because it was believed that EH was a sure thing so Labour voters thought it would be safe to vote Labour. Labour people would, I think, be inclined to vote more solidly anti-Tory next time, but would think twice if the LDs went into a coalition with the Tories without PR. Mind you I'm talking about myself only. I would be ok with a LD/Tory pact if PR came with it, but other Labour people might not be. V. interesting, if nothing else.

There is no way the Tories will agree to PR, or even a PR referendum, as part of the pact. Maybe a royal commission but no more. I reckon the Libs will get little from any pact. The best they can hope for is some input on what happens to the economy so they look statesman like and in 18 months they can point to their behaviour and say they now have experience.

The only people who are going to win anything in an early election are the Conservatives, they're the only ones who have any money left.

Yay, go democracy.

I felt very badly for Evan Harris too. For what it's worth I'm in Oxford East and I think that there WAS a big focus on the seat they were hoping to take - we were no. 4 on their hitlist. I know several Lib Dem campaigners who live in OxWAb but did most of their campaigning in Ox East. I didn't know that that was the Grauniad's analysis but it rings very true to me.