Shouldn't the Tories be expecting a landslide?

[LaTrucha]

And what does it mean that they're not?

.....

I would have thought thet after 13 years of Labour government and the difficult economic times we're living through, the Conservatives would be expecting a very comfortable majority, maybe even a landslide. Firstly, people just get fed up of parties in government and decide to try the other lot. Secondly, this might be expected to happen even more when the economy is going badly (whoever's fault it is).

And yet no one is predicting it as a dead cert or even an almost cert. They weren't even before The Nick Clegg / debate thing began.

I do expect the Conservaties to win, although I'm not happy about it, but if I were David Cameron, I'd be really concerned, at the least puzzled.

Oh god please don't put 'Tories' and 'landslide' in a thread title

a bit alongside pw.

Why is nobody mentioning that this election campaign is a complete failure for the Tories who still can?t manage to get a majority after 4 years of rebranding and new leadership (more than once) - despite having a 3rd term unpopular government, with an unelected PM, after an unpopular war and a global recession?maybe Charlie Brooker is :-)"

That was fb status today!!!

Yes I agree with the premise. The Tories seem to have an absolutely core vote of around 35% (of those who vote), but they struggle to add to that no matter what the circumstances, apparently. Lots of people of our generation and older who will never, ever forget Thatcher, maybe?

It means that the 18 years of Tory hell has left an indelible mark on people's memories! Most of us don't want to go back there.

I hope, but not sure if I believe it fully, that most intelligent people can also see that the economic crisis isn't just a problem here, created by the government. It is worldwide. Under the tories living through a recession would have been a hundred times worse for those on the lowest incomes. The last recession saw a lot more repossetions, bust businesses and job losses.

Well, I was trying to be impartial so I wouldn't just invite flaming, but I do think it is quite astonishing that they havent seemed to get more of a grip on this.

I quite agree with what's been said by others.

It's not just the memories - it's the utter vacuousness of the current Tories. What is there to believe in or care about or change you mind over, even in the face of the decline of Labour? Nothing, that's what.

A friend who earlier claimed to be a life long Tory voter has just confessed she couldn't bring herself to vote for the local Tory MP (it's a virtually guaranteed seat for him)

I do feel that every time I hear a Conservative on the radio, or Cameron in the debate where he seemed to me to dodge many, many questions, we're being asked to vote for a style (I can't remember the exact phrases but things akin to dynamic, change, new, committed etc).

Many current politicians seem to expect that we'll like this. Is it too much to hope that we don't?

As far as I can tell from the various polls, Tory support has actually gone DOWN the more people have seen of them.

This election should be open goal for the Tories given the disillusionment with the incumbents (which always happens when one party is in power for ages). To me, this demonstrates that people really don't like the Tories - they aren't just neutral, they actively dislike them.

I imagine there are a lot of people torn between wanting to get rid of Gordon Brown and being repulsed by the idea of voting Tory.

there is a third option...

the equivalent election for the Tories last time was 1992.

When they won.

1979 - Thatcher won
13 years later, 1992 - Major won

1997 - Blair won
2010 - ???

After 2005 there was much talk about the giant swing the Tories would require to get even a 1 seat majority - unprecedented in election history.

So no, expecting a landslide would be unreasonable.

Money has not 'dried up'. Times are hard - they've been harder. A tory government is the most likely to result in riots and rubbish piles once they start slashing left and right.

Weren't there predictions of Conservative unelectability and subsequent decline after the last election? I have been wondering what happened to those predictions and trying to remember the reasons for them. I have a vague notion they were based on demographics.

I think it's because the ideologies on offer are very woolly all round these days. People like to dumb it down and say the Tories only support the rich and Labour only support the working man... but if you compare our parties to the US where the prospect of very watered-down health service is giving Republicans dizzy-fits then what we've really got to choose from are various shades of liberal socialism. Blair made Labour a lot more right-wing and post-Thatcher Conservatives have moved to the left.

I agree with MintHumbug. The people who are feeling the pinch aren't blaming Labour but 'the global banking crisis'. And the rest think/hope it's all going to carry on as normal if they don't rock the boat.

Wouldn't that make for more apathy? Have the television debates really energised people so much?

I just don't think they have done that well at persuading people that they won't be like the last Tory administration. No one on here much believes it. There is an underlying assumption amongst people of my generation that no one decent would vote tory. I have had people saying to me "But you are so nice" in disbelief when they find out my preference. I think it is ignorant of them, but there it is.

Many people also dislike the way in which David Cameron has surrounded himself with old Etonians, I am the first to argue that background doesn't matter, but it just seems so STUPID of him to have done this. It irritates me and I am bloody voting for him.

I much prefer William Hague

Good post MintHumbug

Perhaps people's memories are not so short. The crash of the last two years followed years in which the pound boomed, many people found their standard of living higher than ever, even ordinary people, in many many areas schools have improved and investment and re-structuring in the NHS has made patients experience much better. This is my experience in the big hosptals in S London, anyway.
Labour introduced the minimum wage (amidst cries of doom which have not materialised) passed the Human Rights Act, and so on.

The revolting relationship with Bush seemed to be personal to Blair, and if you are disgusted with the War in Iraq, and the failure to regulate the banks - well no comfort in the Tories approach there - they were in favour of the war and have never called for regulation of the banks.

Meanwhile, Norman Tebbitt has been reminding everyone of the Tory dark days by getting himself into the news kicking a child.

Labour have horified me with their inroads into civil liberties, introduction of laws to criminalise everything...but no way would I rush to the Tories with my vote.

I prefer William Hague as well.

For me, the Tories will support rural communities; have a joined up foreign and defence policy; have regular War cabinet meetings with either the PM or Foreign sec in attendance whilst we are in Afghanistan; keep Devonport dockyard viable; and hopefully end the inequalities in schools funding for the SW, especially in Cornwall.

oh yes, and sort out the economy (again) post Labour.

indeed scaryteacher

also stop micro managing schools with a constantly changing load of initiatives

Sort out the economy (again)!

I do believe that house reposessions are nothing like they were when inflation and mortgage interest went sky-high under the Tories. Remember the huge negative equity trap that thousands and thousands found themselves in? The crisi in housing is now completely differnt - but still - the recession under the Tories was far worse than this!

Negative equity is not a problem until/unless you want to sell your house, so I fail to see now, as I did in the 80s, what the problem is with being in negative equity; and I am so old I was a teenager when Mrs T was elected in 1979.

Yes, I remember the rate rises in the late 80s/early 90s and the exit from the ERM, as we had a fixed rate deal of 10.8% which we thought was good. Rates dropped after that and I haven't paid more than 7.4% and considerably less in most cases since 1993 for my mortgage.

People choose what they borrow, and if they borrow knowing that they are screwed if rates rise, then whose fault is that? We are supposed to be responsible adults after all.

I don't think the recession was worse - unemployment figures seem to be about the same. I was in employment all through the 90s as was dh. I'd be more worried now if I was working as some teachers have been cut already in Devon and I can see that spilling over into Cornwall.