OPINION POLLS: can someone explain, please?

[notnowdave]

I, nor anyone I have asked, have ever been asked formally for our opinion on a political matter

So I have been wondering how the Polls work, how representative they are really, why the parties/media/press place so much emphasis on them etc

And, in your opinion, do they give a reasonably true prediction on the current 'mood' or opinion of the voting public?

bump

I have.

They called me twice.

But asking 1000 people is not really enough IMHO.

the poll will always tell you in the small print what the sample size was and how they were polled (on street, on phone etc). you can also glean a lot by who is doing the polling, eg, if it's the daily mail and it's about immigration they're more likely to say 'what do you think about criminals coming over here and stealing our jobs and benefits' than 'do you agree the uk should allow skilled workers from the eu into the country'

they are notoriously unreliable as people will say one thing to a pollster 'oh yes, i support higher taxes if it means better health and education services' and then vote conservative when it comes down to it in the privacy of the polling booth.

this is why the bbc will always talk about the 'trend' and will also also make clear who did polling and put it in context.

hth

I don't hold much store by them. I think the media like to pretend that things are close to get us all worried enough to go to the polls, which increases the turnout.

Thanks

Have noted who does the poll and guessed that it reflects accordingly (i.e Times/Sun etc)

But just wondered why the sample sizes are so small and why the politicians and media people give them such a lot of air time

I think from what I can gather anyway that the polls are taken from a pre selected proportion of the general public who have land line telephones.... or so I read but I could be wrong!

No one I know has ever been asked either!

I do often wonder how reliable they are because many many young people and students do not have land lines.

A recent poll on Facebook gave the result of 43% of people wanting Lib Dems to win, 32% Conservatives, 26% Labour. I imagine the younger generation who use facebook more may well be responsible for that but are more or less excluded from opinion polls. I guess it all depends on how many of those people questioned on facebook were actually registered to vote or even old enough to vote.

I don't know why so much emphasis is put on opinion polls but apparently they are usually fairly accurate. I suppose this election could be the exception to that but we'll see!

Everything you ever wanted to know about polling can be found on UKPollingReport

ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/faq-sampling

ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/faq-weighting

ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/faq-turnout

ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/faq-dont-knows

ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/faq-wording

The polling organisations set great store by their accuracy, especially on the headline voting intention figures.

Media clients will NEVER be able to influence this.

However, where the media clients may be able to ask leading questions is in the secondary questions.

e.g. there will be a massive difference in the responses to

• Would you be more likely to vote Monster Raving Loony if they promised to put air conditioners on the outside of buildings to combat global warming?

• Do you believe it is sensible to spend taxpayer money on subsidizing air conditioners on the outside of buildings?

• Global warming is a big problem. Do you support in principle the idea of combatting it using air conditioners?

Thanks for links