How can they be so sure that my local seat is safe?

[McDreamy]

Probably a stupid question but what with the whole MP's expenses scandal (of which my local MP was involved) and personal scandal how can they be SO SURE that we won't all vote for someone else?

They can't. Shocks happen. But if you live in a very traditional area, either staunchly working class or staunchly rural (which has always puzzled me because most rural people work all hours), there's a good chance people will overlook the expenses thing because they regard the opposition as the worse of two evils.

Correct. And this is why, regardless of the Lib Dem surge in the popularity polls, it is not a definite that it gets translated into actual votes. Loyalty to a party is much stronger than it often gets credit for and the party faithful will overlook minor indiscretions if it means keeping their man in the hot seat. If Hazel Blears retains her seat that will be a big QED

they can do mini-polls in the run-up to the election to get an idea of the scale of the challenge facing them.

Well they can't be sure, but they look at what's happened in the past as an indicator of what will happen in the future.

Where I live has been Labour for the past 5 elections with a huge majority so the chances of it changing are very low. The candidates don't even canvass round here.

Take a look at the votepower website www.voterpower.org.uk/ it makes interesting reading. (we are in the bottom 50 - barely worth turning up for - although I will)

I'm interested in this as well. I'm in a Safe Conservative Seat according to previous election results. Yet I can't be the only person in my area who is debating if I should vote Conservative or LibDem (libdem typically come in second place in my area).