This is just a general question really, about how parties target their leaflets and their funding for leaflets, prompted by a sudden rush of leaflets through our door, mainly from the current MP / his party.
Our current MP, Mr A, is moderately well known, and on the front bench of his party (won't name him or his party to avoid making this into a party-focused question). Our constituency has always had a strong majority in favour of Mr A's party, and to be honest, I thought his party would never be defeated here, despite the fact that he was rather tainted by the expenses scandal and is thought locally to have exploited his personal life for political gain. I was always going to vote for Mr B, his opponent, but never expected Mr B to get in. (From a comment someone made on MN, Mr B wasn't really expecting to get in, either)
Suddenly, we have had an absolute rush of large, full-colour, expensive looking leaflets from Mr A, some of them explicitly telling us that Mr B's party will ruin the country, etc etc. (Complete with large photo of Mr A looking like a smug git smily).
This makes DH and I think that Mr A thinks Mr B is in with a real chance. And it's true that a lot of people seem to have put up posters for Mr B in their front gardens. We can see that it would be embarassing / awkward for Mr A's party, should they win the election, to have lost one of their front bench.
So, we're wondering - do the national parties put more money into leaflets for their front bench MPs? And how do they know which seats are in danger? Presumably, they have much more sophisticated means of deciding where to spend money than going round saying 'Mr B's got a lot of posters up'. Are they going round conducting polls? Are there limits in how much any one MP can spend?
(DH would like me to say, in the interests of balance, that he thinks Mr A is competent, influential and as honest as most politicians, and he will probably vote for him.)