So who do you actually think is going to win then?

[SethStarkaddersMum]

ie what do you actually expect rather than what do you hope happens?

My guess would be a clear Tory majority because all those Lib Dem votes won't translate into seats.

anyone else?

oh ok.... not just me who thinks Tories then!
not looking good for GB then is it?
Sarah B is probably secretly relieved.

A party needs 326 seats to have majority and I can't see any of em getting that.

Conservatives will win

I have to say that most people in real life AND on here dont seem to want the Tories so WTF is voting for them???
I dont think I could handle DC smug ass face all over the TV and papers much longer and if he WINS

I think the Conservatives will win, I think the polls are actually not reflecting the level of support they have.

i feel the same, twinkle, i just don't knwo anyone who wants the tories in... but i fear they'll get in thanks to england.

I think the problem is that the people who want tories will get out and vote and the people who don't want tories but feel disenfranchised by politics/labour will stay at home.

Twinkerbell - "I have to say that most people in real life AND on here dont seem to want the Tories"

Surely you mean "most people I talk to in real life and on Mumsnet"??

That's why polls are so unreliable sometimes:
-Mumsnet is ridiculously skewed towards LibDems - why? don't know... perhaps this type of forum disproportionately attracts a LibDem 'type'?

• Tory voters are often older - perhaps less likely to be using web forums and twitter etc

I also think by their very nature, Tories are more 'conservative' (small c) and less confrontational and vocal. I get the impression that there are lots of Tory MN-ers, but they just don't bother to get drawn into the debates on here.
When 'debate' so often rapidly descends into the mindless name-calling ('Fuckwit Tories' being a case in point...) then you think 'why bother?' since there's no real intellectual discussion.

Funnily enough I don't know anyone in real life who wants either Labour or the LibDems in...

I think it has been unfashionable of late to admit to supporting the Tories, but secretly a lot of folk do because they can see it makes the most sense.

I think it will be a hung parliament. The Conservatives need a 40% vote share to get to 326 seats - YouGov poll today puts them at 34%. They have a long way to go.

I think the tories will win (but only just)

To win, Conservatives need a 6.9% swing against Labour, which hasn't happened since the war. They just don't have that level of support.

I fear a clear Tory majority, because I don't believe that what Cameron says about looking after the old/frail/needy will actually happen

All those who are depressed at the thought of a Tory government, cheer up at the thought that the cuts that the winners are going to have to implement mean that the Government will be the most hated one ever. They will never get back in.

So your pain won't last long Or for four years only

That would indeed be the only consolation, HC

I think we will have a lib/lab coalition. It worked up here in Scotland until the SNP won (imo anyway). So my belief is that in the event of a hung parliament, cleggy would be more likely to go with labour than the tories seeing as its been done before (but he might want Gordon to leave - but I suspect Gordon wants to leave anyway )

Hassled: it doesn't necessarily work like that. They may not need 40%. it depends on their share relative to the Labour share. I think they would need a little north of 10% higher than Labour, but if the Labour share is significantly below 30% the Tories can in theory achieve a majority in the higher 30%'s which I think is achievable for them. There is a lot of discussion at this point however as to whether the polling methodologies are as robust as they were given the increase in support for the Lib Dems as the third party. No one knows.

god most people i know are openly (though quietly) admitting they'll vote tory! sure many more will vote for dc but just daren't out themselves! Do i live in a tory ghetto or is this representative??

I can't honestly affiliate myself to any of them, i just think that by nature the conservatives are primarily wealthy people looking out for other wealthy people and most of them dont have much clue about what its like to struggle, whats its like to wake up in the morning and wonder if you can afford to pay for your childs school dinners this week, I think that if they did they would never have sold off all the decent social housing stock ( everyone knows there is always a bust after a boom and that the housing will be needed)
they would never have never have sold off many of the major public services and pensions and from what I can see, it is many of the same old faces just hiding behind a new, young dynamic one how knows full well half of what he is saying is bollocks

I think the Tories will have an overall majority of 27. If they do I am in the money!

I like the electoral calculus website

No idea what will happen. This seat will remain conservative - if not then Labour will get a bigger majority than now which is impossible I think.

Am suspecting a conservative majority. Just.

Aubergines: i am hoping betweeen 1 and 25 and then I am!

actually i DO live in a tory ghetto - which is why i feel out of place maybe...
my prediction like most on here - tory win but poss via coalition with lib dems.

sorry for typos

I also think Gordon will leave too, even if Lab won. I think he has prob had enough