Does anyone else think that the Lib Dem's could actually win the election

[theITgirl]

I thought a month ago that the most likely result was a hung parliament. But I am beginning to think that the Lib Dem's could actually win outright.

Am I completely deluded or does anyone else think the same?

Actually. I have just played with the swing-o-meter thing on the BBC website.
It is ridiculous the proportion of votes they would need to win enough seats.
I have answered my own question.

I think it's possible they could get the most votes (or at least come a very close second), but because of the voting system would get far fewer seats. I think that labour are still on target to get more seats than them, even though they are several points down.

Very exciting though, I think I might book next Friday morning off work so I can stay up all night to see the results

A Guardian/ICM poll a couple of days back put the Lib Dems' maximum support at 40% - i.e. this was all those planning to vote Lib Dem plus those thinking about it. If they (we - I'm one) manage to convince all those thinking about it, then yes, it's possible.

Plus two in five people who say they'll vote Tory are only doing so in order to keep Brown out. If Brown is perceived to be toast, the Lib Dems can pick up those votes from the Tories (not to mention ones from Labour).

It's doable. The commonly-cited figures are 38% for largest party (although some say 36%), 40-1% for a majority, 42% for a landslide. That seems like a small range, but once the LDs reach the high 30s, they start to pile on seats with each extra 1%.

OK, the two in five Tories figure is those whose "prime motivation is to get rid of Brown rather than it being a positive choice for the party." From today's TNS-BMRB poll at politicalbetting.com.

The main factor now is whether Labour support sinks further.

It's not remotely possible.

And I'm a lib-dem voter, canvasser and campaigner.