How much of a sure thing is it the the Torys are going to get in this time?

[electra]

Is there still the possibility that it could go the other way?

I'd had the impression that both Labour and Tory leaderships have been desperately courting the LibDems and would grab their votes (in Parliament) with both hands given half a chance. But Clegg's playing hard to get (which is proving a rather good tactic IMO).

I'm not convinced that the public at large would be upset by a hung parliament. I think quite a lot of people think it's the least worst option, given that neither main party is terribly attractive at the moment and Vince Cable is so popular. Plus it has novelty value.

As for the constitutional issue, the civil service has been preparing for a hung parliament for some time and has issued all sorts of protocols about what would happen in various scenarios. I don't think Liz will be asked to pull a name out of a hat or anything like that

Here you are - yesterday's Times/Populus poll says that 32% of those surveyed want a hung parliament.

I want one anyway, it will be great fun for political geeks.

The safest place to check who will win which seat are the betting websites.

They are more accurate than any poll. Money where the mouth is speaks volumes.

Well, to fisk those reasons in a (hopefully) discursive and chin-strokey way:

neither party wants it - well they can eff orf, can't they? This isn't about what they want, it's about what we want. And they are singularly failing to enthuse us at the moment.

Both parties are coalitions already - a) doesn't this just mean that they have some experience of compromise? and b) as others have said, it's unlikely they'd be in coalition with each other. (Of course, Lab and Tory actually have quite a lot in common in some policy areas - probably as much as, if not more than, either has in common with the LibDems.)

Leaders couldn't deliver/big beasts would wreck - do you think so? If the alternative was to drag an unwilling electorate back to the polls within a matter of months? Neither party has too many big beasts at the moment IMO. Although the idea of, say, BoJo doing a massive flounce is indeed attractive.

The extremes would be empowered to revolt - well, if this meant that the government couldn't get its leglislation through, this would admittedly be a problem. It would all depend on the size of the coalition's majority I suppose. But I'm not convinced that the Labour backbenches really know how to revolt any more, with a few honourable exceptions: they've had their collective balls in a vice for so long I don't think they know where to find them any more. Not sure this is so true of some of the backwoodsmen in the Tory party, who might well go native given half a chance.

The parties could not be put back together - I don't think that's an objection. So we end up with more parties that are, individually, less powerful - sounds like democracy to me.

It seems to be that the Lib Dem manifesto is much more in line with the Tory manifesto than the Labour one.

Alousie can you explain about the betting sites. For eg here - it says "Overall majority 2/5" what does that mean? 40% chance of one?

The Labour majority odds are given as whole numbers and the Tory majority odds as fractions... what's the difference?
Thanks!

Oh this is interesting thread.

Do people still lie about voting Tory though? I can't believe they do in the same shame-faced way as they used to?? It used to mean I'm a Big Bad Selfish Person. Surely people now think it means, I Don't Like Brown. Or even I Really Want to Run My Local Post Office

Also - I think it's so interesting how close they are in the polls. Six months ago it was going to be a Cameron cake-walk wasn't it?

spittheteagain,
overall majority 2/5 means that if you give them £5 they will give you £2 if any party wins with an overall majority. So you are risking £5 to earn £2. So they think this is quite likely to happen. If it happens you will get your original £5 back plus an extra £2.
odds of 2/5 is the same as a probability of 5/(2+5) = 5/7 = 0.71 = 71% chance of happening

at the moment they are quoting a Tory majority as being about 4/7 i.e. your £7 earns £4 of theirs i.e. probability is
7/(4+7) = 7/11 = 0.64 = 64%

Labour majority is about 10/1 i.e. your £1 will earn £10 i.e. proability is 1/(1+10)= 0.09 = 9%

So it looks like there is no way that Labour will win

however no overall majority is about 6/4 i.e. probability of 4/(6+4) = 4/10 = 40%

so there is still a small chance that Labour might be able to form a government with the Liberals, depending on how well the Liberals do

Remember 1992 when everyone was sure Labour were going to overturn John Major and then Kinnock blew it at the 11th hour with that rally in Sheffield and Major limped home the winner

The liberal manifesto is much more to the left than labour centralism - but it could not be further away from the Tories if they were on the moon.

amothersplaceisinthewrong,
yes you're right about 1992, that was a shock result, and I think that's why you can't trust the opinion polls. But the betting companies don't go by polls, but base their odds on the amount of real money that has been invested by clients, so they are probably more accurate than the polls.

I agree there will be interesting times ahead with a hung parliament and subsequent coalitions - and agree that there is no reason why, in theory, it couldn't work. But it will take quite a change of mindset for the public as much as the politicians. I can't see any way that the Conservatives can get an overall majority - they just have too far to go.

The BBC's Election Seat Calculator is fun.

thanks claig!