How much of a sure thing is it the the Torys are going to get in this time?

[electra]

Is there still the possibility that it could go the other way?

No election is ever a sure thing. The Conservatives aren't very far ahead of Labour in the opinion polls. At the moment we're more likely to end up with a hung parliament, with no party having an overall majority.

This would lead to either Labour or the Conservatives forming a coalition (sp?) with the Lib Dems to form a Government.

Most likely the Tories would do this and bank on making some good progress in the first few months before calling another election in the autumn (probably October) in the hope of winning an overall majority.

Or at least that's what I've hear/read anyway

The chances of the Torys winning the election is very slim. They need to win 117 seats in order to get a majority of 1 and this has never been done before. Plus, the seats they need to win are in traditional labour areas.

Its gonna be really tough.

It is VERY unlikely that the Lib Dems would form a coalition with the Conservatives - they are much more likely to go with Labour which is why "a vote for a Lib Dem is a vote for Gordon Brown".

If the Conservatives manage to get the most seats - but not enough for an overall majority - they could form a coalition with the smaller parties (Plaid Cymru, SNP etc) and then call another election later (which they would be more likely to win because Labour will be pretty bankrupt by then and the Conservatives have more financial support)

How does a coalition work? When you say that the Lib Dems would probably form a coalition with Labour rather than the Tories what does that actually mean? Why do they get a choice? Sorry for being so clueless!

A coalition is basically where two or more parties get together to form a majority party. You need a majority in order to form a government (because when you come to vote on legislation you want to be able to get your laws through - any everyone else will probably try and block them)

So after the election if no party has an overall majority (there are 646 seats in the House; so 323 needed to form a majority) then they will look to others parties for support (lib dems, snp, etc).

These parties can then make deals whereby they will form a coalition on the basis of...(they then set out their demands).

The Lib Dems are more likely to go with Labour because they're ideologies are closer.

If the Conservatives are only a couple of seats away from an overall majority (i.e. 320) then they could approach SNP/plaid cymru/independents to form a coalition rather than having to go to the Lib Dems.

Coalitions are really complication - and in this country and generally not good for government. It will mean that it takes a very long time for anything to happen (because deals have to be made); which in a recession is a really bad thing.

Coalitions fall apart quite quickly (because parties are not used to sharing powers) and that is why another election is generally called quickly; especially if a party thinks it could get enough seats for a majority.

Does that make sense - happy to explain further

I had wrongly assumed that the two parties with the most votes formed a coalition so was expecting a Labour/Tory coalition. Thanks for explaining so clearly PandaSam

Thanks for that explanation, pandasam.

PandaSam, I agree that coalitions are not great. I once worked at a council with no party in overall control and it meant that the big tough decision were often not made, with fudges or procrastination being the order of the day. Very frustrating and, in the long run, not in the best interests of residents. Would not like to see this repeated at national level.

I am a bit disappointed with the Conservative Manifesto.

To paraphrase David Cameron,

'If we're elected on May 6th you're on your own on May 7th'

isn't a very attractive idea as we are just coming out of a recession (even if it was a single issue bank thing this time). (yes I know he didn't say that but that was the impression it gave)

When I watched the launch I was really hoping for some ideas and inspiration. A plan maybe but ...

I wonder, perhaps, if a coalition might not be the best thing for the time being.

I am a bit disappointed with the Conservative Manifesto.

To paraphrase David Cameron,

'If we're elected on May 6th you're on your own on May 7th'

isn't a very attractive idea as we are just coming out of a recession (even if it was a single issue bank thing this time). (yes I know he didn't say that but that was the impression it gave)

When I watched the launch I was really hoping for some ideas and inspiration. A plan maybe but ...

I wonder, perhaps, if a coalition might not be the best thing for the time being.

The political betting markets show that the money (hence measurng fairly serious considered opinion) is split evenly on a Tory win or a hung Parliament with equally high probability. Betting odds show Labour winning is a very low probability outcome.

Then might it not be better to choose the devil we know. I would find it hard to feel safe with the Conservatives at the moment.

most European countries work with coalitions - so there must be ways of making it workable. Neither labour or conservative want that to happen so have no vested interest in explaining how coalitions can work.

It would be nice to imagine they all have the good of the country at heart, and would be happy to work together for the common good. Somehow I don't think that is what actually motivates the leading members of most parties.

Oh I don't know!!!

so in a coalition, how do they decide who is Prime Minister? Presumably it's the party with the largest number of seats, but what about their coalition partner? Can they take any of the big jobs? If not, what's in it for them?

Many, many countries in Europe and the wider world exist quite happily with coalition governments. They can be as stable and as effective as one-party governments. The impression (put about entirely by Labour and Tory activists who have, shall we say, a vested interest) that coalition government = ineffective disaster is not borne out in reality.

Mint, when you say 'we aren't geared up for it', don't you just mean that it's not something we're used to? There's no structural reason why it shouldn't work; so long as there's an operational government, everything else will fall into place. The markets might fall initially, but they'd recover so long as the situation remained politically stable.

My husband is canvassing for a political party in a marginal south-of-England market town.

Out of ten households he will probably get four/five Tories, two/three Labour, one BNP(!!!) or one UKIP and one/two don't know/won't say.

Experience from the past tends to suggest people are more secretive about voting Tory.

I find the idea of being ruled by the international markets a lot more sinister and worrying than the idea of being ruled by a coalition government.

Germany has been ruled by coalitions for pretty much the last 50 years. If Germany is financially and politically ruined, I must say it's doing a good job of hiding it.

Agree with you policywonk, can't see why on earth coalition wouldn't work. As far as I'm concerned the markets dictate too much and look where its got us!