Makerfield - today's the day.

[Kayemm]

Having lived in this constituency all my life I used to want to live somewhere where I felt my vote mattered rather than in a very safe labour seat.

Now I'm here and living with the reality, I'm so very nervous.

It does absolutely amaze me that I know so many people who won't vote today.

That is true - what happens in by elections (particularly this one) can't be taken as representative of what would happen in a GE.

It's not just Makerfield, voters in Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton also voted to keep Reform out.

3 heavy defeats for Farage.

Burnham had a 21 point margin over Kenyon with women voters, while Kenyon had a 15 point margin over Burnham amongst men in pre election polls, which even allowing for the greater tendancy to lean left amongst women, is huge. Its an interesting tangential point about tolerance of misogyny between the two sexes. Which I'd have expected to show some variation, but its depressing how much.

A recent IPPR survey showed that young men are staying away from Reform, the kids are alright.

Not for us in Makerfield it wouldn't.

I think describing the Makerfield result as a "heavy defeat" for Reform is a bit of a stretch.

A defeat yes, but Reform got 15,600 votes and compared to 990 for the Conservatives, 300 for the Greens, 163 for the LibDems and 95 for Count Binface.

It was also their second highest share of the vote in a by election.

Personally I'm more concerned about the damage to the economy from the uncertainty of a Labour leadership battle.

This was supposed to be Farage's bid for PM.

Riding high in the polls, friendly media, area voting Reform in the local elections, strong Brexity area

And where is he?

There is a bit of analysis suggesting his appeal and that of his party had peaked. One of the things that seems to be a problem is the reception to the money he’s been taking; this appears to put voters off.

I cannot fathom why Reform chose the candidate they did for Makerfield. Sexist, foul mouthed, incoherent.

I had the same thought about the Makerfield candidate - couldn’t they have found someone more articulate and not sexist.

Apparently not. Which does not bode well for Reform at all.

It was a heavy defeat. If Farage can't win here, he's got serious worries.

There is a theory (not sure how much I believe it) that it was in Reform's interest to actually lose Makerfield by election.

On the following basis:
Andy Burnham gets elected. He then launches a leadership challenge, this creates uncertainty for say 3 or 4 months which a) has economic impacts and b) doesn't go down well with the electorate- just as the changes in Tory leadership didn't.
b) Burnham becomes PM (but not elected as such). Burnham faces exactly the same problems as Starmer namely you can't increase debt as the interest bill is killing Gov spending, you can't increase taxes without slowing the economy and you can't cut spending because of the Labour backbenchers.
c) All those Labour voters whose hopes were that Burnham could make a real difference are further disillusioned when they realise he's no different to Starmer.
d) Labour vote collapses further going to the Greens and Reform and LibDems
e) The left vote is split between Labour, the Greens and LibDems. Reform become biggest party at 2029 election and forms a coalition with a resurgent Conservative Party.

Ah but Badenoch has ruled out any coalition we are told.

Other than state it you haven't explained or evidenced how it's a heavy defeat.

Definitely a heavy defeat for the Tories, LibDems and Greens who all lost their deposits but not a heavy defeat for Reform on the voting figures I previously posted.

In addition Andy Burnham is a well known and respected figure that clearly has a higher profile than a relatively unknown Reform candidate.

And her supporters get v cross of at suggestions she might not be being truthful.

They all have to say that before the election otherwise it's an admission that they don't think they are going to win (which we all know is that they won't!).

Because Farage believed that he would be relatable to the people of Makerfield as local lad everyman.
Could there be a clearer demonstration of what Farage really thinks of WC people, that this is the sort of person he thinks reflects them? Unintelligent, offensive, inarticulate, misogynist, racist, and a covid denier. Is there a single insulting WC stereotype his candidate didn't embody that he handed to Makerfield as 'one of you'?

More like they get cross when people use what a journalist said to pretend that Kemi said something she didn’t. Facts matter.

She is currently not interested in a coalition with Reform. It’s possible that could change in the future- especially if they had a different leader - who knows.

Agree that is an insult if supposed to represent the average working class male in Makerfield.

Either that or it’s a place I never want to go to 🤭

The last three by elections have shown the anti-Reform vote in action.
The fact the other parties' votes were so effectively squeezed is part of why it was a heavy defeat.
Burnham got 55% of the vote in an area where Reform got over 50% in the locals.
The swing from Reform to Labour was substantial.
The Restore vote is an additional concern for Reform.

Well of course she can say she is currently not interested. That claim won't be tested for years.

We have hashed this out endlessly, but I think there is a good reason why the Spectator hasn't issued a correction and why she put out an edited recorded exceprt of the interview. YMMV.

No, it was not in Reform's interest to lose any of the last three by elections.

It is never in any party's interest to look less strong.

I share your distaste for Reform but you are depressing example no. 1519768 of someone on middle-class Mumsnet looking down their nose at ordinary working-class people engaging in ordinary pursuits like watching the national team play in a football match.

Tbf, she's not looking down on WC people, she's looking down on Reform voters. They are two entirely seperate groups of people, and its frustrating to have them constantly conflated.
PP is not applying a stereotype to ordinary working class people watching football, she is applying a stereotype to the subset of that group who vote Reform. Which you may feel is unfair, but its not an attack on WC people in general.

There is nothing for the Spectator to correct. Their journalist was entitled to his opinion as long as he didn't pretend Kemi said it. Which as you know, he didn't.

Their journalist was entitled to his opinion as long as he didn't pretend Kemi said it

He wrote that she made it clear that was likely to support Farage into No. 10 if he fell short of a majority.