In a way I think it's quite good that it's a tough seat. He would definitely have won Gorton (I used to live there). But the towns are a lot harder - way more Reform. So, you know, if he can't move the needle there, then it's a clear signal that he won't move the country.
It's obvious this current version of Labour is incapable of doing the sort of practical things that would actually change the lives of voters. I have found them imperceptible, personally. We joke round here that the government doesn't exist. For most people up here there's simply no evidence of the state. We don't have a hospital - I've not seen a doctor for years. No NHS dentist. We don't have a police station. We don't have a college. The trains sort of run, sometimes, but mainly not. The bins are collected sometimes, but mostly not. The roads are full of holes, literally our town was blocked off, the main road fell in, for a quarter of a year. I'm not talking little potholes here, though we have those too. I can see six out of this window here. We had a burst water main running into the town square last year for weeks. Like, a river running past my house!
It's beyond neglect or shabbiness. It's nonfunctional. We have been abandoned by the government, and in this respect there's no visible difference between this one or the last. The only experience most people round here have of state action in the last 20 years is having their business destroyed by lockdowns during Covid. It's why people round here feel going Reform is worth the risk. I'm not a Reform voter but I can see why people would get there.
When I say this, my friends start yelling about how Reform will hurt the most vulnerable, and I agree, they probably will. But the fact is this is not going to stop anything because the most vulnerable don't vote. So it just seems obvious that's not a politically effective argument.