Increasing any taxation is not a solution.
We are well beyond the point of "tax saturation". Raising it further on any sector will continue to stifle growth and discourage investment.
For example, four businesses local to me, have been trading for decades and making a reasonable profit around 10%. The recent increases in National Insurance and the minimum wage have directly impact the profit margin to the point where their businesses are barely viable. Three of them say they are planning to wind-up the business unless there's a positive outcome in the budget. I really don't think the cabinet understand how business actually work.
Increasing borrowing is not a solution.
The UK currently owes £3 trillion which incurs £350 million in interest payments daily. We are unable to repay the capital.
The interest rate is the highest it has been for 27 years at 5.75% largely because the bond markets no longer regard the UK as a safe investment and there are safer countries to lend to such as the US.
Most years we spend more than we collect in taxes, resulting in increased borrowing and worsening the situation. (There have only been five years since 1971 when the books balanced so this has been building up for decades through successive governments.)
How about growth?
Labour’s proposal for change was going to be driven by Growth, which flat-lined after they killed business confidence within weeks.
For investors, there are more attractive locations with lower taxation, reduced employee costs, lower energy costs and larger markets. Rising unemployment and inflation are accompanied by increasing tax receipts which are stifling the economy.
How about cutting public spending?
The truth is we have been spending far beyond our means on public spending since the 1970s, but cuts are so unpopular with the electorate that no party is prepared to make any meaningful change. The Conservatives did manage to reduce public spending in real terms, but it is generally accepted that this contributed to their loss in the 2024 general election.
The recent debacle with KS and RR trying to trim a morsel off public spending shows it certainly isn't going to happen with the current government either.
So what’s going to happen…?
I was rather hoping, we could carry on kicking the can down the road for another 20 years, but I think that's looking unlikely.
Much of Europe has the same problem, especially France. it will be interesting to see to see how that plays out as we will probably follow.