Is Iran actually close to making a nuclear bomb or is this more “weapons of mass destruction” fearmongering??

[Gagamama2]

Apologies if this is a very obvious / already talked about topic. I’m not very politically minded.

The US is using the excuse that Iran is weeks, at most a month, away from making a nuclear weapon and therefore that is why they need to get involved / help Israel bomb them.

Throughout the war in Afghanistan I remember the reason given for invading etc was to find and destroy “weapons of mass destruction”. But after the war, it turned out none had ever been found (I don’t think? Please correct me if I’m wrong).

How can we know the same thing isn’t happening here? Or is it accepted worldwide that Iran genuinely is a nuclear threat?

Yes as confirmed by the UN IAEA:

www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1mg7kx2d45o.amp

Yes and no. The IAEA has become more concerned about information and lack of cooperation from Iran in recent years however the current rhetoric from Israel has been their argument for several decades. They have argued that Iran is 10 mins away from creating nuclear weapons for YEARS with no evidence and they use this as a way to keep them the threat to the west.

Meanwhile Israel is not a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity, neither confirming nor denying its nuclear weapons possession. While Israel is an IAEA member and has a safeguards agreement, it only applies to certain nuclear material and facilities, not the core of its nuclear weapons program at Dimona.

So basically it's the narcissist's go to tactic of accusing someone else because they are the ones ACTUALLY doing it.

It's similar to how they cried over Iran bombing them but they actually bombed them first, claiming it was 'preemptive defence' so they had the right despite the fact that legally that is not the case.

Thank you for the link, very informative

I don’t understand how Iran can be so closely monitored yet Israel can’t be? If the world is also unsure whether Israel have nuclear bombs can’t they gather intelligence like they seem to have done with Iran? Or perhaps Israel isn’t seen as volatile like Iran is and so then havung nuclear weapons isn’t an issue?

you are right about the narcissistic move!

If I’m coming off anti Israel it isn’t because I am or am not. I’m just trying to understand the situation and whether everyone bombing Iran is actually justified

Don't worry, I get it and you are totally right. Israel gets away with having them without having the oversight. They are insidious. I think one thing that social media has done is expose the levels of corruption and putting them on a pedestal within western governments.
Basically from everything I understand, there has been the concept of Zionism since at least the 1800s. The Zionist project considered many countries to create a 'Jewish homeland' including Uganda, Argentina and Cyprus. However with the location of Israel on the edge of the middle east, governments like the British one saw how strategic it would be to have a country they were allies with on the edge of the middle east and so supported the choice to create Israel in Palestine which had been chosen based on the history it has with Jewish people. Plans had been in place for years before the WW2 but with that ending there was high support for the Jewish people to go there (unfortunately some of that was even anti-Semitism because people didn't want them as refugees, something many people don't want to talk about).
1948 was the first Nakba essentially beginning Israel.
From there on Israel positioned itself as a moral democracy, building relationships with many governments, specifically though British and US. For example, Mosad agents train the NYPD and the Jewish US citizens were given birth right citizenship.
Lots of conflicts have taken place since then with Lebanon, Iran and other countries and for many years Israel has controlled the narrative of being the good guys, so much so their own citizens believe it, as do many people around the world. They have in the last year admitted that they didn't like tiktok because they couldn't control the narrative on their (leaked video of the government discussing this confirms it).

So in essence, the country was created to control access to middle east, oil access etc and they also have placed themselves deep in the governments around the world. This means it's very difficult for even the British government to take sanctions even when they are having arrest warrants out. Stamer has condemned them but still supplies RAF planes for mapping Gaza and allows IDF soldiers to be trained in England, still allowing weapons to be shipped from there as well.

All this to say basically they have been given a free pass to do want they want and the governments are so deep they have to balance exposing themselves and trying to control what they are doing.

Also please know I don't believe Jewish=Zionist so whilst I am critiquing Zionism and the Israeli government, I don't believe that this has anything to do with them being a 'Jewish State'. In fact, I believe it's anti-Semitic to suggest that they are the same. Just putting this as I feel some may not be happy with what I've said.

@Nn9011
Excellent post, you sum it all up very clearly.

Thank you so much for all that info! V interesting to read and really explains it all

So that's would be true then....no offence but that's what was said last time. I don't buy the WMDs argument as they have some of the worlds most powerful rockets with payloads so powerful they could take out a city block and have never used them other than in defence.

Does Iran support militias....yes of course as we do all over the world. Syria's militia was supported by Israel, the British supported the UDA in Ireland.

Let's be frank the most dangerous country in the middle east is Israel and they have nuclear weapons which don't comply to any global treaties. They are not inspected and they won't confirm or deny having them....and have threatened to use them against Iran.

I can see why Iran would want them to be honest looking at the last few weeks. So the argument for self preservation is there in plain sight.

You know Jewish people live in Iran peacefully and without victimisation. Tehran has a synagogue...no one sets fire to it or discriminates against Jews. I've lived and worked in Iran with absolutely no issues and I've live and worked in Israel with no issues.

But when a country like Israel carpet bombs a tiny built up strip of land occupied by women and children at a time when children are out playing after school for no real reason other than to target Hamas....you can see why Israel is viewed as a terrorist state by countries like Iran and Pakistan. When Israel kills scientists and commanders and even threatening it's religious head of state with death....it's akin to threatening the POPE.

I'll give you a comparable example, it's like the British carpet bombing Northern Ireland after a bombing.

I have no problem with Jewish people but the state of Israel is out of control and we shouldn't be afraid to say that. It's not anti semetic to say that the Israel state is in breach of human rights, has broken numerous treaties, illegally occupies territory, guilty of genocide and state sponsored murder.

Our leaders our out of touch with voter sentiment, we want these wars to stop. We want Israel held to account and it's leader brought to justice.

I'm afraid if we fail here then it's going to be very bad for everyone. Pakistan does have nuclear weapons and a destabilised Iran could cause problems for Pakistan.... it doesn't take a lot of imagination to work out where it could end up.

I have no problem with Jewish people but the state of Israel is out of control and we shouldn't be afraid to say that. It's not anti semetic to say that the Israel state is in breach of human rights, has broken numerous treaties, illegally occupies territory, guilty of genocide and state sponsored murder.

Except that Jewish people don't have the same legal rights and the supreme leader is a Holocaust denier. But sure, things are great for Jewish people in Iran, thats why most of them left.

They have the same rights as any Iranian citizen and I can't comment on the holocaust denial because he's incredibly private so I wonder where you heard that. Are you sure you're not confusing other older officials.

I'm not going to stand up and say how great and lovely Iran but we can't go around bombing countries because we don't like the way they are run.

Israel is the monster here....look at what they are doing. There is no justification for it

I wonder where all this is heading to be honest because there seems to be a lot of people with their fingers in there ears when they don't like what they are hearing and then punching the air at the news that the USA is coming to join in.

All I'm going to say is this thing right now will plague us for tens of years after at best and at worst we'll be plunged into global war...where we will be fighting for our own survival. Because the more this happens the more likely it will eventually end up on our backyard

Even within school walls, the Jewish community cannot expect any form of safety or freedom. Current restrictions and discriminatory policies against Jews include bans against Jewish people in key governmental and significant decision-making positions: A Jewish person can’t be a member of the influential Guardian Council, a commander in the army, or serve as the president of the nation, among other restrictions. Jews are not permitted to become a judge at any level or assist in the judicial or legislative systems. Furthermore, Jews are banned from becoming members of parliament (the Consultative Assembly) through general elections.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/why-some-iranian-jews-stay

https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/446928689943420928

As I said it isn't like the UK that has signed up to equal opportunities. It's an Islamic country and Iran isn't the only one with such discrimination and one of them is Israel which blows your argument right out doesn't it. They certainly don't have apartheid like Israel where people in Gaza aren't even given food or medicine. Saudi Arabia..... doesn't even have a democracy.... should we bomb them because we don't like that....

Israel started this war and it was sponsored by the United States.....our government should be turning it's back on America and Israel... I want nothing to do with it...I certainly don't want to be more of a target when I'm working in the middle east

US intelligence believed not and were in negotiations with Iran before Israel attacked. Now the US has changed its position. It's quite complicated for Trump because there's a division between Republican hawks and MAGA who don't want to be dragged into another conflict in the ME.

Trump will never admit anything though will he, he will spin it as the greatest thing ever to happen.

My advice to everyone is protect yourself and your families. Stock pile a small amount of tinned food and bottled water, have batteries and lights and a gas bottle stove and reduce your exposure to the SP500 and consider moving into safer assets,. I'm not being alarmist but if there's a crisis in America we may find ourselves running short of key items and assets could be put under strain