If Rishi gets back in, who will actually end up being PM?

[BlossomToLeaves]

I dread the thought that the Tories might win tomorrow, partly because of voter apathy or assumptions of a foregone conclusion, partly because of the danger of protest voting like with Brexit, partly becuase of the issues of women's rights (which I do agree with, but still don't want the Tories back in).

But it IS a possibility. And I can't really imagine Rishi would stay. The Tories defeat has been predicted for so long that he probably isn't thinking of himself in the job anyway and has other plans, though he'd have to do it for a little while. My guess would be less than a year though - and possibly, if they've won but still lost huge numbers of seats, right away. I'm not sure at all who would replace him, and of course that's hard to say now without knowing who will actually get back in anyway. Kemi?

How long do you think he'd stay and who do you think would replace him, on the assumption that they do actually win their seat?

If he doesn't win, then I assume he'll be off almost immediately, and there will be a new leader right away - possibly a different set of candidates in this scenario, given both the timing and the fact that they'd not the PM??

I expect they’d bicker amongst themselves for another 4 years swapping the PM out every once in a while instead of getting on with whatever job they were elected to do.

Wait and see.

What's the point in speculation

He wants a mandate, he’s currently PM but not through an election so he will revel in that for a while if they win.

If they lose (which seems likely) he’ll be gone pronto. He has no fight in him and they will destroy him.

But if they win but the majority is rubbish the knives will be out for him immediately and he’d probably do less than 2 years.

What @WiseBiscuit said. That.

Yes bickering seems pretty certain in that case!

I don't think he'd get a mandate, but again I guess anything is possible, so I can see him using the fact that it's a rubbish majority as an excuse to quit and go off to California or wherever. If he loses, yes for sure off immediately.

Two years is longer than I'd guess either way, but maybe with a decent majority.

Interest.

It's at least as interesting as other predictions about who is going to win or lose their seat, and how that might affect a future Tory leadership contest, which is likely to happen at some point fairly soon. I think that if the Tories won, there will still be a contest, but obviously later than otherwise and possibly with different candidates as it would be for a different (immediate) role; there might be some who'd want to do it to be PM immediately but who would not be as keen to be in opposition and have to fight another election. Rishi might well want to be off immediately, but be persuaded to stay for a while given that the Tories might lose what little trust they had maintained in order to get a very small majority.

I suspect it will be Rishi! but after that i think Cleverly is gearing up to run for next leader. tbh think he'd do a decent job - he seems sensible, a good speaker and doesn't quite have the "toff" reputation of others

Yes, I could imagine that.

I know lots of Tory MPs have decided not to stand again this time, but I have to admit I don't know much about any of their replacement candidates, and whether there is anyone likely to be really up and coming, who the new people might be likely to support, etc. If Rishi stuck it out for two years or so, that might be time for some newer person to potentially have enough experience to run for leader. If the leadership contest is right away, as is most likely if they lose or if they get a very small majority, it's more likely to be a name that's fairly well known already.