Penny won't hit the 100.
She probably already knows that (as do most of her supporters), but she's hoping she's got leverage as a kingmaker for Boris or Rishi to get a prime cabinet job (unless either can get enough backing to make her cohort irrelevant).
The "deal" Rishi needs to strike now is with undeclared MP's to stop Boris getting to 100 and be crowned king without a membership vote.
Boris clams he has 100 but it's in his interests to do that even if he hasn't and publicly those votes are not in the bag.
He wants to force concessions from Rishi because the leverage Boris has is that IF he has the 100 he's got a good chance of winning the membership vote - but even that's not 100% certain.
Personally I think Boris has taken leave of his senses trying to run again now if he wants to make a comeback.
The term has 2 years to run in some of the most testing of times and the likelihood of a second term is uncertain, especially if his return is unpopular with the general electorate (which I think it would be).
Rather Truss has given him the gift of no longer being the crappist PM in recent times and he could use that to take in £££ on the circuit and re-stage his ambitions in the future (letting others to deal the economic mess of Brexit and Putin).
But he's Boris and his ego is far to big and self control too limited to do what's right for himself, never mind the country.
The whole thing is a shit show, but fundamentally the markets most value a Rishi/Hunt combo (a GE would also create more instability) - so that's where my hopes lie.