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Politics

Why is a non-economist in charge of the country's economy?

105 replies

CurlyhairedAssassin · 29/09/2022 22:10

Being unable to comprehend the chancellor's economic strategy, I googled his background. His degree was in classics and history. Where are his credentials that equip him with the skills needed to be in charge of a whole country's economy?

I just don't get it. Why are we continuing to put non-specialists at the very top of their government department?

OP posts:
Discovereads · 30/09/2022 08:53

dandelionthistle · 30/09/2022 06:49

To be an economist you need to have taken courses in econometrics, statistics, discrete maths, accounting, and quantitative finance.

This is categorically untrue. Of the many economists I know, very few have training in accounting, and plenty don't have training in quantitative finance.

All economists should have a thorough understanding of how national accounts function, of course, but it would be quite a sleight of hand to call that 'accounting' (the more normal term would be macroeconomics... and I would suggest Kwarteng probably needed a pretty good grounding in macroeconomics to write a thesis with that title, even if it wasn't a formal module of study).

They would if they were at PhD level- which is what that poster is arguing . I agree many at the bachelors level would not have had this training yet. The macro and micro economics are basics, hell they teach the rudimentaries of macro and micro at A level.

I agree Kwartang would need some knowledge of macro to write his PhD thesis, but again that’s why his errors are being called school boy errors by economists, it’s clear his knowledge of economics is that of an A level school boy, no more.
And even the title says it’s “Political thought of the recoinage crisis of 1695-7” clearly states it’s not an analysis of the recoinage crisis or the economy surrounding it. It’s merely trawling through records and summarising what the politicians of the day thought about the crisis. As in reading the parliamentary debates, the PMQs, how the news sheets reported it..the thesis focuses on political thought, not economics.

Doubtful he even sat a single lecture on modern economic policy and the mechanisms by which the economy operates. He may have studied historical trends in GDP, but does he even know how to calculate it? Or the ways in which different countries fiddle with it?

Discovereads · 30/09/2022 08:57

MrsBennetsPoorNerves · 30/09/2022 07:26

I think you can run things effectively without expert knowledge if you have the humility to recognise how little you know and the sense to listen to and learn from those who are actually experts in the field. Sadly, that doesn't seem to be the case with our cutting government.

Agreed. His staff would include career civil servants who are economists. Not to mention the BoE is packed full of economists. All Kwasi would have to do is listen to these experts. But he’s not. Don’t know why he isn’t, but it’s clear he’s creating a cluster fuck situation.

MrsSkylerWhite · 30/09/2022 08:59

He and his boss are the most dangerous of creatures, blinkered ideologues.

dandelionthistle · 30/09/2022 09:26

Discovereads · 30/09/2022 08:53

They would if they were at PhD level- which is what that poster is arguing . I agree many at the bachelors level would not have had this training yet. The macro and micro economics are basics, hell they teach the rudimentaries of macro and micro at A level.

I agree Kwartang would need some knowledge of macro to write his PhD thesis, but again that’s why his errors are being called school boy errors by economists, it’s clear his knowledge of economics is that of an A level school boy, no more.
And even the title says it’s “Political thought of the recoinage crisis of 1695-7” clearly states it’s not an analysis of the recoinage crisis or the economy surrounding it. It’s merely trawling through records and summarising what the politicians of the day thought about the crisis. As in reading the parliamentary debates, the PMQs, how the news sheets reported it..the thesis focuses on political thought, not economics.

Doubtful he even sat a single lecture on modern economic policy and the mechanisms by which the economy operates. He may have studied historical trends in GDP, but does he even know how to calculate it? Or the ways in which different countries fiddle with it?

Most of my colleagues hold MSc economics, and certainly at that level it's absolutely not the case that all have quant finance or accounting!

I'm sceptical as to whether PhD economics - necessarily more narrowly specialised - would suddenly pick these up? In any case, IME it's not the norm for professional economists to hold PhDs, although some certainly do. Andy Haldane doesn't, nor did Tom Scholar.

I'm not defending Kwarteng as equivalent to a PhD economist, but if he held BSc economics nobody would be querying his credentials for the role based on his educational background... even though with a few years of distance (ie assuming no career in economics in the meantime) it's probably a comparable knowledge base.

I think it misses the point to attribute the failings of this budget to Kwarteng's understanding or otherwise of economics. It's a budget from Truss' political wishes rather than any sort of economics at all, isn't it?

Tsort · 30/09/2022 10:26

MrsBennetsPoorNerves · 30/09/2022 06:33

No, there is absolutely no evidence of him being an economist. It would be unusual for someone without any economics qualifications to be considered an economist, but if they had a substantial track record of actually contributing to the field, then of course, you could argue that they are economists. Kwarteng does not have any track record in the field, so in the absence of any formal qualifications or relevant contribution to the field, he cannot be regarded as an economist.

A PhD in history and a few years working in finance definitely don't count! The fact that you think they do just belies your own lack of understanding about what an economist is.

So, what is an economist? What is evidence of being an economist? What constitutes a substantial track record in the field? You’ve posted multiple times about why he isn’t an economist, but I note you still haven’t answered those initial fairly basic questions.

Tsort · 30/09/2022 10:29

@Discovereads There’s a lot of maths in an economics degree. To be an economist you need to have taken courses in econometrics, statistics, discrete maths, accounting, and quantitative finance.

None of that is true.

Tsort · 30/09/2022 10:33

chilliesandspices · 30/09/2022 07:24

This reminds me of when I worked in law and they started appointing MPs with no experience of the courts or judiciary action to the role of secretary of justice. Liz Truss was one of them and her inexperience showed. Her predecessor was Michael Gove who was equally clueless. How do you decide what resources are needed for efficient and effective running of the courts without any knowledge of the law or experience of judicial action? Interestingly, she's appointed an experienced QC to the role herself.

I’ve always thought this was an interesting one. As you want administrators, not necessarily practitioners of the subject at hand. So, in theory, you’d want CCG CEO’s as opposed to doctors running the health service, and so on. So, what would the judicial equivalent be, I wonder? (Genuine question, I don’t know).

dandelionthistle · 30/09/2022 10:39

Tsort · 30/09/2022 10:33

I’ve always thought this was an interesting one. As you want administrators, not necessarily practitioners of the subject at hand. So, in theory, you’d want CCG CEO’s as opposed to doctors running the health service, and so on. So, what would the judicial equivalent be, I wonder? (Genuine question, I don’t know).

I think also, once you start looking at the practicalities like this of exactly how a SoS should be qualified for their brief, the nice simplistic notion of 'they should have lived experience in the sector' breaks down, doesn't it? I've mostly known doctors and nurses be utterly scathing about CCGs and hospital leaders etc, and likewise teachers rolling their eyes at LA directors of education or their own SLT. The reality is that a 'properly qualified' Education or Health Secretary would be the same sort of largely unpopular leader / 'expert' perceived as being out of touch with the coalface.

Agree with a PP that this is where a touch of ministerial (and often Departmental) humility would come in handy...

chilliesandspices · 03/10/2022 12:12

@Tsort I guess it would be the CEO of HM courts and tribunal services but they are already civil servants working with the Ministry of Justice. Within the courts, there are court managers but they are not at the same level of experience as someone running a CCG. Judges usually have experience of legal issues before and after they go to court so have a better understanding of the legal system as a whole.

It could actually work fine without someone experienced in law if they had the sense to listen to the experts. I guess that's the real problem. MPs coming in and trying to make a big impact quickly without fully understanding the consequences.

WahineToa · 03/10/2022 19:34

Oh it’s quite funny rejoining MN after years! Reading this hilarious argument about whether he is qualified…. It’s a matter of opinion, no? I think he is actually, certainly. Not that I liked his budget. But I can’t remember one I’ve ever liked, in any of the countries I have lived in. I’m from a country with a top rate of 39% so I have to get my head around the collapse of life as we know it about 40% ( didn’t uk have that tax rate under Labour??? )
I think the chancellor is qualified but also politically stupid and completely out of touch. I think the top rate is too high to be competing with other countries ( US is 37%, Canada 33%, NZ 39 ). I know people in my field who live in the US for this reason. But it’s wrong to drop it now and by so much. On every level. He clearly isn’t up to the job even if qualified,, but what the heck kind of instability would be created by replacing him too?!

walkingonsunshinekat · 03/10/2022 20:16

WahineToa · 03/10/2022 19:34

Oh it’s quite funny rejoining MN after years! Reading this hilarious argument about whether he is qualified…. It’s a matter of opinion, no? I think he is actually, certainly. Not that I liked his budget. But I can’t remember one I’ve ever liked, in any of the countries I have lived in. I’m from a country with a top rate of 39% so I have to get my head around the collapse of life as we know it about 40% ( didn’t uk have that tax rate under Labour??? )
I think the chancellor is qualified but also politically stupid and completely out of touch. I think the top rate is too high to be competing with other countries ( US is 37%, Canada 33%, NZ 39 ). I know people in my field who live in the US for this reason. But it’s wrong to drop it now and by so much. On every level. He clearly isn’t up to the job even if qualified,, but what the heck kind of instability would be created by replacing him too?!

Would probably increase stability, several hedge fund managers called him a "useful idiot"?

However, a Chancellor doesn't need to be an economist, thats why they have advisors/civil servants.

Kwarteng just never took any notice of his, didn't he sack the main guy in no11 ? he seems to be heavily influenced by the Tax Payers Alliance.

knitnerd90 · 03/10/2022 23:07

WahineToa · 03/10/2022 19:34

Oh it’s quite funny rejoining MN after years! Reading this hilarious argument about whether he is qualified…. It’s a matter of opinion, no? I think he is actually, certainly. Not that I liked his budget. But I can’t remember one I’ve ever liked, in any of the countries I have lived in. I’m from a country with a top rate of 39% so I have to get my head around the collapse of life as we know it about 40% ( didn’t uk have that tax rate under Labour??? )
I think the chancellor is qualified but also politically stupid and completely out of touch. I think the top rate is too high to be competing with other countries ( US is 37%, Canada 33%, NZ 39 ). I know people in my field who live in the US for this reason. But it’s wrong to drop it now and by so much. On every level. He clearly isn’t up to the job even if qualified,, but what the heck kind of instability would be created by replacing him too?!

Canada & USA also have state/provincial income tax which can be quite substantial. Several provinces have a top tax rate of over 20%.

it's difficult to compare tax rates because of transfers. The US effective tax rate is much lower than that because of deductions, and Canada has substantial transfers to families with children.

farawaytree2 · 03/10/2022 23:54

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/619781

Snowjive2 · 04/10/2022 00:41

@chilliesandspices It’s not correct to say that Liz Truss has appointed “an experienced QC” to the role of Secretary of State for Justice. She appointed Brandon Lewis. He studied law and was called to the Bar (the easy bit) but didn’t secure a tenancy in chambers so as to practise as a barrister (the difficult bit). So, in terms of winning appointment as a QC (now KC), he didn’t even get off the starting block.
Are you thinking of the Attorney General, Suella Braverman? She received the title of QC purely as an honorific. She is generally regarded at the Bar as dim and a most unlikely candidate for appointment to silk on merit.

DowningStreetParty · 04/10/2022 02:11

I think the fact OBR have been held at arms length says it all. No attempt at professionalism. Just negligent, arrogant, cynical Tory politicking. It’s clear that normal people’s livelihoods are just the contemptible cannon fodder for their experimentation. It’s a very dangerous attitude for the rest of us to be around.

smooththecat · 04/10/2022 03:17

He’s got a PhD in economics…

The economic history of the 1600s. So, there’s that.

Seriously though, the Tories (and this country in general?) hate technocrats (people who are chosen for their expertise in their area). So, we are stuck with this.

smooththecat · 04/10/2022 03:26

WahineToa · 03/10/2022 19:34

Oh it’s quite funny rejoining MN after years! Reading this hilarious argument about whether he is qualified…. It’s a matter of opinion, no? I think he is actually, certainly. Not that I liked his budget. But I can’t remember one I’ve ever liked, in any of the countries I have lived in. I’m from a country with a top rate of 39% so I have to get my head around the collapse of life as we know it about 40% ( didn’t uk have that tax rate under Labour??? )
I think the chancellor is qualified but also politically stupid and completely out of touch. I think the top rate is too high to be competing with other countries ( US is 37%, Canada 33%, NZ 39 ). I know people in my field who live in the US for this reason. But it’s wrong to drop it now and by so much. On every level. He clearly isn’t up to the job even if qualified,, but what the heck kind of instability would be created by replacing him too?!

The thing is, our relative pay is substantially lower than these countries you mention. They would need our pay to increase to lower taxes and bring in enough to fund UK PLC. They took a gamble that they could achieve this growth by lowering taxes, they are still wedded this trickle-down economics thing that does not work.

ReeDeeHee · 04/10/2022 03:55

A lot of the ministers probably have no direct experience with their department. I doubt many education secretaries have ever taught, or any health secretaries have ever worked in healthcare, for example.
Probably should be a requirement, but it will never happen.

WahineToa · 04/10/2022 06:32

smooththecat

our income in UK isn’t lower than NZ or US. NZ especially is a hard place to live with expensive food and housing- they have an even higher issue with lack of housing. NZ and US also don’t have free health care. I couldn’t afford to move back to NZ. One of the things that surprises us most about living here, many years now, is how negative British people are about their own country, especially when you have so much provided for you, much more than what we are used to.

Tillsforthrills · 04/10/2022 07:01

Cherchezlaspice · 30/09/2022 00:00

Was it at Phd level? I’m guessing not, or you would have said.

Did you then follow it up with a successful career in finance? Also no?

I don’t want him as Chancellor, but to claim he’s ‘not an economist’ is just bizarre. Also, as nobody has said anything of the sort about previous Chancellors, who haven’t been anywhere near as qualified…I have to ask why? Why is this being said about him?

Why so incredibly protective over Kwasi? Do you agree with his decisions?

Tillsforthrills · 04/10/2022 07:03

MrsBennetsPoorNerves · 30/09/2022 00:26

I don't believe I said that they had to have a degree in economics, merely that they needed to have studied it.

I see no evidence of Kwarteng having studied economics. He has studied economic history, which is not the same thing. Of course there is some overlap, but he is a historian rather than an economist.

In any case, it doesn't matter. He clearly doesn't have the knowledge that he needs to run the economy, regardless of his qualifications, so he needs to listen more to those around him who knows what they're doing. I strongly suspect that, in his case, it's one of those situations where a little learning is a dangerous thing...he thinks he knows what he is doing, but the results of his actions would suggest otherwise.

Exactly this, he could be the most qualified economist in the world and still cock the whole thing up, as he has. Now backtracking his decisions, making him and Truss look weak and foolish.

Tillsforthrills · 04/10/2022 07:09

WahineToa · 04/10/2022 06:32

smooththecat

our income in UK isn’t lower than NZ or US. NZ especially is a hard place to live with expensive food and housing- they have an even higher issue with lack of housing. NZ and US also don’t have free health care. I couldn’t afford to move back to NZ. One of the things that surprises us most about living here, many years now, is how negative British people are about their own country, especially when you have so much provided for you, much more than what we are used to.

Well we are headed that way which is why people are complaining. Especially with this gov’t. You can’t return to NZ but people here will soon be in your position and are in real poverty or could be pretty close to it so please don’t minimise that by implying they should be grateful as gradually people are unable to cope with the cost of living.

Its not a comfort to be told other countries have it worse.

WahineToa · 04/10/2022 07:26

I’m not minimising anything, I’m stating facts and my opinion about them. Lots of posts on MN recently talk about moving from uk, including to NZ so it’s a reality check from someone who is from there- and indigenous and unable to afford to live in my homeland again. Also, please don’t make assumptions about my situation. ‘People’ struggling to manage the cost includes anyone you happen to be talking to here. I’m very aware of struggles thank you. But at the same time we have all just been handed a little extra to cope with it and it’s also good to keep things in context, this is a global issue right now and not everything can be blamed on our government. Other countries do have it much much worse, including my family back home. So I’ll give whatever opinion I wish to, within this forums guidelines.

Tillsforthrills · 04/10/2022 12:24

WahineToa · 04/10/2022 07:26

I’m not minimising anything, I’m stating facts and my opinion about them. Lots of posts on MN recently talk about moving from uk, including to NZ so it’s a reality check from someone who is from there- and indigenous and unable to afford to live in my homeland again. Also, please don’t make assumptions about my situation. ‘People’ struggling to manage the cost includes anyone you happen to be talking to here. I’m very aware of struggles thank you. But at the same time we have all just been handed a little extra to cope with it and it’s also good to keep things in context, this is a global issue right now and not everything can be blamed on our government. Other countries do have it much much worse, including my family back home. So I’ll give whatever opinion I wish to, within this forums guidelines.

This isn’t about NZ.

It’s about Kwasi and his ineptitude.

By your line of reasoning, there’s always someone poorer, sicker or with worse circumstances. We are discussing the declining situation in the UK.

But yes, feel free to turn it into something else.