The Westminster Arms

[DustyDiamond]

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The Westminster Arms:
A non-partisan politics pub-thread for varied political chit-chat & other such stuff

Cheers all 🍷

You might Arse but would the Labour heartlands of the North because, funnily enough, it’s not just about what you would take

Odd reply, of course it's not just about me. Voters might well decide they've had enough of someone who makes noise and talks shite and would prefer a period of calm 'greyness' to restore the nation's nerves. And that includes the so-called 'heartlands'

Well, we'll find out in about four years' time, then.

In the meantime, a long drawn-out leadership contest by the party that lost the election and now has next-to-no influence in the HoC should give Boris plenty of time to make more headway with his manifesto commitments.

LPF=Litres per Flush Don't even joke. I am not signing a FTA with the US if they insist on their hopeless cisterns. In all other respects their plumbing is much better than ours though.

I may be coming round to Sir Static (may even adopt Sir S as it has a certain Catherine Cooksonesque connotation to it

I thought his answer on rebuilding Labour throughout the country and not just the Red Wall was pretty solid - all the bricks of building the argument in place (I'll get my coat ) from Federalism, infrastucture and transport, housing, HoL Reform.

I thought in the context of the other Qs he dealt with Dusty quite well albeit I agree there was a bit of equivocation. Missed opportunity for Howabout Scottish DDs to brainstorm with Dusty DSs.

The other answer which impressed me was on post EU. I thought the pivot to protecting workers' rights via the trade union movement was very politically adept. The trick now will be to bring the non-unionised Membership with him.

Lots else to chew over and mostly on the right page from my pov as a traditional Scottish Labour supporter, but I won't bore on.

But what on earth would induce the EU to give it to us?

I agree with Lily. Maybe the fact that they export more to us than we do to them? I think this graph shows that clearly. Are BMW and Mercedes really going to let the German government give us a hard time which would result in loss of sales? Same for France and cars/wine/cheese.

The UK is the EU’s second largest single export market and I don't see them jeopardising that.

I forgot to ask, why does it take the Labour Party three months to elect a new leader? Conservatives take approx a month and a half.

Perhaps to give members more opportunities to discover who they are voting for. Tories shouldn’t rush their process so much.

should give Boris plenty of time to make more headway with his manifesto commitments.

Absolutely, threadbare as they were he should be able to crack on with no problems other than the tiny matter of negotiating all those wonderful trade deals and sorting out our future relationship with the EU.

I long to see the investment in NHS building and staffing that he lied about, and so many other areas of our society that desperately need attention from the government.

Nearer to 5 years still than 4, tho who knows on that score? Either way, as I observed upthread, that's a long old time in politics.

Silvery, that is a very interesting chart. Thanks.
It gives an indication of why Boris can hold the line. They definitely need us a lot.
And France wants access for it's fishing fleet.
I have every confidence that Boris will sort them.

Parker231 OK but doesn't that leave the party in suspended animation for three months? Are you ok with that?

Would rather a delay in order to get the right person.

I forgot to ask, why does it take the Labour Party three months to elect a new leader? Conservatives take approx a month and a half.

The reason lies in the differences between the two processes, Silvery.

Conservative MPs are asked to vote on a series of ballots until the number of candidates left standing is reduced to two. At that stage, Conservative Party members choose between the two by way of a postal ballot. It is all overseen by the Electoral Reform Society and because it's a straightforward system, it is speedy.

The Conservative Party achieved a change of leader in 46 days. Theresa May resigned on 7 June 2019, having given two weeks’ notice. Nominations were in just three days later. MPs were balloted on 13, 18, 19 and 20 June, reducing the number of candidates to just two. Postal ballots were sent out to the membership within two days and returned within a month with the result announced on 23 July 2019.

Interestingly, Boris is the first Conservative leader ever to be chosen under the new rules. They were applied just before David Cameron stepped down. Theresa became leader only by default because Andrea Leadsom withdrew.

By contrast, the Labour Party process will take 113 days. In fairness, their procedure is much more complicated than the Conservatives because it requires a wider range of nominations - from the CLPs, the trade unions and other affiliates- and because there are three pools of voters. Also it works on an AV system rather than FPTP.

It was one of Ed Miliband’s bright ideas for reform.

Ed had lots of bright ideas, as I recall. He had them carved on a stone somewhere.

Found a photo of the Ed Stone.

Happy days...

Fair enough. I didn't vote for Boris in the leadership election but am happy with his performance so far.

Arse Rome wasn't built in a day.

Would rather a delay in order to get the right person.

Trouble is, I'm not sure any of those currently on offer is the right person. I do like Lisa Nandy, with some reservations, and she'll appeal to floating voters, but I'm not sure she's tough enough to overcome all the infighting the new leader will have to deal with. What they need at this point I think is someone like McDonnell without the Marxism, who is willing and able to do the dirty work, then hand over to Lisa, or someone like her, after the next election.

(Emily's looking a bit desperate, isn't she? Please nominate me. Pleasepleasepleasepleasepleeeeese!)

In the meantime, a long drawn-out leadership contest by the party that lost the election and now has next-to-no influence in the HoC should give Boris plenty of time to make more headway with his manifesto commitments.

That's actually a good thing: he won't be able to blame anyone else if it goes tits up. Conversely he can take 100% of the credit in the (in my view unlikely) event it's a success. Win-win.

Yep Ed's Reforms are what led to the Membership gaining much more power in the process. The problem is that there is every chance their pick will be at odds with the PLP. Imo the PLP needs to get its act together to make sure it doesn't end up at odds with the Membership or with the Membership at odds with the electorate. You can see this tension coming through in Sir S's replies. He cannot afford to be seen to be seeking to dictate to the Membership but the ability to nudge will be paramount in making the Party electable.

Yes Lily I remember some of Ed's ideas. I remember his speech at Conference just before the election when he forgot to mention the economy.

Emily's looking a bit desperate, isn't she? Please nominate me. Pleasepleasepleasepleasepleeeeese!

She's definitely going for the Pity Vote now, Mary.

The trouble is, it was giving the pity vote to Jezza (to "broaden the debate") that led to the current situation.

According to the BBC Barnier is arguing for implementation of the NI protocol as an a priori. He is also defending LPF demands. Surely with LPF the NI protocol is redundant?

Just sounds like inconsistent bluster atm. What am I missing?

Yep Ed's Reforms are what led to the Membership gaining much more power in the process.

Absolutely, Howabout. It was his hasty attempt to solve the Stirling scandal, as I recall. Wasn't Karie Murphy at the centre of that storm too?

Just sounds like inconsistent bluster atm. What am I missing?

Nothing. He's still catching up with political reality too.

By the way, I'm really looking forward to reading Sir Static's webchat now if it means an opportunity for your DC and Dusty's to meet up. We could host it at the Arms, although we might have to repaint the place first. At the moment it's a very calming shade of grey - Farrow & Ball's Elephant's Breath. As someone pointed out, Sir Static would be at risk of fading into the walls and we'd end up losing sight of him altogether

Since today's speech, the pound has lost 1.5%. Not great.
It looks like it'll head back to last summer's lows. I just wonder why Johnson is adopting this strategy. This time though, it can't be blamed on the Remainer Parliament.

I suppose this is something that we will have to agree to disagree on. Yes increased trade barriers EU - UK will undoubtedly be damaging for the EU, but the single market could be damaged if they agree reduced trade barriers without us agreeing to LPF as we would be in prime position to undercut EU business due to our proximity, which is why imo a Canada style deal will never be on the table from an EU perspective. They have been absolutely consistent on this all the way through the Brexit process.

As FTAs are about concessions I don’t think agreeing to LPF is much to concede if we don’t plan to regress in any event? Especially considering the effects of WTO terms will on balance be more damaging to U.K. than E.U not just for trade, but for things like sourcing isotopes for medical imaging which we will undoubtedly still have to source from the EU.

FWIW I think gov line today was more for the benefit of you leavers, all bluster to prove how tough he is before he inevitably caves at the 11th hour. Otherwise, why have we just agreed to pay divorce bill, concede some LPF commitments in NI protocol, and to create trade barriers within our own territory if gov feel no deal is fine in any event? We could have no-dealed in January and saved ourselves the trouble. The EU were much more prepared for no deal than us. It may be case of watching what the gov do rather then listen to what they say as if they do want WTO terms they are going to have to put some serious prep in between now and end of transition.

I’m just sick of all the lying, I noticed Raab is still insisting EU agreed to no checks even if U.K. do not align which is obviously false, so why bother lying?

The Germans like us

Tories need to get their Ministers organised - they are giving out different messages on alignment. No help to a business trying to make plans for next year.

Fair enough, LimitedSimba, we'll have to agree to disagree. I accept your priorities and mine are different. I think we can agree, however, that we both want the best possible outcome for the UK even if we have different ideas about what that means.

I will wait until all the initial bluster and noise dies down in the trade talks and see what emerges. Right now, it's all about positioning and scene setting.