Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

But once out of the EU our farmers would again have a market for goods, and so could grow and sell these locally and at a profit, which would mean they could afford to employ more workers and this in turn aids growth, and reduces cost and increases profits.
Just because a report exists it doesn't mean I read it and copied it, we do have a brain cell or two that still work even if we voted leave.

"But once out of the EU our farmers would again have a market for goods, and so could grow and sell these locally and at a profit, which would mean they could afford to employ more workers and this in turn aids growth, and reduces cost and increases profits."

Our biggest agricultural market is the EU.

You are getting really confused now. You are suggesting that food would be cheaper yes? Well the reason that would be is that we would have removed tariffs on agricultural products that currently make it uneconomic for UK/EU consumers to buy them

If we do this then UK farmers won't be able to compete with food imported from these countries as they can sell it at a far lower price, hence the food price falling.

The food will not be cheaper because we are out of the E.U but because we have disposed of EU tariffs on food.

British farmers are already struggling to find workers in argriultural areas, despite offering decent £10-15 ph wages. The NFU fears food will rot in the fields.

The UK has gradually produced less of the food we eat since being in the EU, so only around 60% self sufficient, so loads of market space to bring in cheaper imports from around the world once out - especially if Brussels shafted us and there is a public backlash - as already Remainer 'survey sez' the majority now want out and without a take-the-piss divorce bill.

So loads of new opportunities for our farmers on a 'UK first' plan for produce and crops/animal welfare stuff, as they fill in gaps we import from the EU, and look to sell overseas.

Can someone remind me what portion on the total EU Budget goes on Agricultural Subsidies (due to the honking great success of growing stuff in the EU)?

You really don't understand how it works Sore Arse, did I read rightly that you were in international trade?

The UK has ALWAYS imported lots of its food, hence why there was food shortages, especially of certain products during both wars.

Just as a point, the UK actually improved it self sufficiency in food once an EU member from 1973.

We actually peaked in 1988 producing 78% of what we ate, this has decline so much now that we now produce less than 50% of what we eat. A quarter of our food is imported from the EU, so we already import another quarter from the rest of the world.

bathildabigshot#1

"did I read rightly that you were in international trade?"

I didn't say what I did, as why would I give any personal ammo to rude and derogatory bottom wipes like you?

"The UK has ALWAYS imported lots of its food, hence why there was food shortages, especially of certain products during both wars."

I think we might have moved on from the war, but whether we produce 50-60% of our food and a good client of EU producers, clearly like China we have to have something like a 5-year plan to INCREASE our own production and build our trade links without EU protectionist baggage getting in the way.

BTW did you know that we sell far more cheeses etc to the likes of France nowadays, as they are after more stronger, complex tastes than all that gooey 'stuff' that they eat?

Apparently cheeses matured here in deep caves, and all sorts.

Use that gem as you will.

I didn't say what I did, as why would I give any personal ammo to rude and derogatory bottom wipes like you?

What thea actually said, and I quote:

"my 'trade' expertise, which FYI was for over 30-years"

Doesn't say international trade, but a claim of expertise was certainly made.

Whatever, every commodity I think of is priced in U.S. American $$$$s, so the Euro based Eurozone is hardly immune to 'rising prices'.

"BTW did you know that we sell far more cheeses etc to the likes of France nowadays, as they are after more stronger, complex tastes than all that gooey 'stuff' that they eat?"

All of which would be jepordised by leaving without an agreeement.

every commodity I think of is priced in U.S. American $$$$s, so the Euro based Eurozone is hardly immune to 'rising prices'.

Vastly oversimplified (feel free to argue: commodities are my day job) but true in the short term as long as you assume a strengthening dollar.

OTOH the EUR has gained about 10% vs the USD this year ;)

Weird how well the EUR is doing vs GBP and USD, when the eurozone is allegedly on the verge of collapse

Mistigri

”Doesn't say international trade, but a claim of expertise was certainly made.”

Yes but according the Europhile ‘elites’ on this board, I cannot string a sentence together in English, never mind communicate with overseas clients, so I will leave it there to a board that ‘goes personal’ at the first sign a challenge to their EU twaddle is being successful.

Maybe I traded ‘widgets’ from a stall in Peckham Market, you will never know.

You on the other hand tell us that you are an economist, which probably explains both your lack of a sense of humour and your UK ‘glass half empty’ approach, as in my experience economists prefer to look for the problems, rather than potential successes, as ANYONE can say stuff will get better – but those who see crashes coming and predict them successfully obtain hero status, as they are as about as rare as rocking horse poo. Bless.

"Weird how well the EUR is doing vs GBP and USD, when the eurozone is allegedly on the verge of collapse grin"

Especially as the strength of the currency reflects the optimism of the market in the future of the economy.

Motheroffourdragons

"The euro is at its strongest just now. Take from that what you will."

I thought it fairly obvious that markets go up and down, even to Europhiles with selective memories, as this Bloomberg article points out in the opening paragraph.

”The Euro”

”Hey, euro! For a while there, you looked like a goner. During those debt crisis days in 2012 when Greece was imploding and Spain’s banks were teetering and the Germans were asking why they had to pick up the bill, there was a serious wobble. Common European currency? Remind us, please, what Europeans actually have in common.”

Another, nuanced and well thought out response sore arse.

Especially as the strength of the currency reflects the optimism of the market in the future of the economy

Obviously strength against the USD and GBP also reflects political turmoil in those countries but from where I sit in France, there are lots of reasons to be optimistic - lots of investment in manufacturing and research in particular. DH's small business has doubled its turnover this year.

Really, because it dares to look at the facts, rather than 'the vision'?

Ask yourself Einstein, is there ANY speculation at all that the UK Pound Sterling will no longer exist over the years ahead?

Then ask yourself if the same can be said about the Euro by people that care.

People in the eurozone by and large don't want to leave the euro. The collapse in the Le Pen vote after the final presidential debate was directly related to her policy of leaving the EZ (and her inability to defend it). The euro is popular even among NF voters, let alone ordinary people.

Mistigri

"Obviously strength against the USD and GBP also reflects political turmoil in those countries but from where I sit in France, there are lots of reasons to be optimistic - lots of investment in manufacturing and research in particular. DH's small business has doubled its turnover this year."

France has dropped a 5-year head-up-bum socialist government for a start, and businesses have the same (misplaced?) optimism that their shiny new President will make changes to the conditions of doing business e.g. labour law changes.

We are also nearly 3-years into the ECB QE liquidity flooding of the Eurozone and negative interest rates to banks, so if funding etc and French optimism isn't rising at this moment - they never will.

Wait until Brussels increases all their taxes to pay for the apparent Euro 20 bil of contributions they will miss from the UK, and EU Negotiators tells them that they can't sell their gooey cheeses to the UK - or only with honking great tariffs, and that, with Pres Macron's inability to change labour laws significantly, will cool their optimism.

Still, nice to see an economist optimistic, even if its only for french France.

Eurozone growth currently about double the UK. I doubt growth is confined to a corner of SW France.

I'm not a macroeconomist btw - don't do any macro forecasting.

"Wait until Brussels increases all their taxes to pay for the apparent Euro 20 bil of contributions they will miss from the UK."

But the UK net contribution is nothing like £20bn, its more like 7bn which is 5% of the entire EU budget.

"We are also nearly 3-years into the ECB QE liquidity flooding of the Eurozone and negative interest rates to banks, so if funding etc and French optimism isn't rising at this moment - they never will."

Yet the UK government took the same approach for years and has managed very poor growth too. The UK QE is far greater when set against GDP as well as per capita.

BTW President Macron said that he would address Frances rising annual government budget deficit.

Indeed, as ours has been falling from 2010, theirs has been rising.

Did Macron not say in his election campaign that he was going to CUT Euro 60 billion from French government annual expenditure, when is that going to happen, and how will he do it?