Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

Most of these people are paying tax into the system too (and boosting the economy in other ways), or (in the case of those in schools) will be paying tax into the system when you and I have retired.
I think a lot of people forget that immigrants are net contributors to UK economy.

In my (problematic) household analogy it would be like kicking out the second earner, to save on the food budget.

It's rather amusing seeing the number of people who spontaneously agree with the EU's positions, even when those positions aren't even meant for our ears.

The EU for instance has no expectation of getting £60 billion out of us. It isn't even a negotiating tactic.

Come the inevitable budget cuts in the EU though they will be able to blame the British for not paying their bill.

Hence seeing Brits claim that we should pay is highly amusing.

On citizens rights too. The EU is attempting to rebrand itself as the overarching protector of EU citizens. If any of you followed by EU army thread during the referendum then you can guess why.

They know fine well that their court having jurisdiction in post brexit Britain is just ridiculous. The message it gives out to EU citizens across the continent though chimes with their rebranding.

Hence seeing EU sock puppets trying desperately to square the circle of the UK not being trusted to preserve human rights compared to those wonderfully and historically enlightened continentals is rib tickling.

Frankly if the EU were demanding prima nocte plus rights to our first borns there would be some Lord hawhaws wittering on about it being our legal obligation.

A lot of what is being said is for domestic, ie EU, consumption.

Utterly hilarious that sock puppets take it seriously.

spin

Do you think people are sock puppetting

(Is that a real word...have i made up a new one?)

The only sockies I see here are brexiteers. But sock puppetting is against MN guidelines so you can always report them.

Whoever it was that was outraged about France trying to poach "our" financial services, get real. We left the EU, gloves are off now, why would other European countries not want to try to attract lucrative industries like finance? And why would those industries want to stay in the UK with uncertain trade rules, no clue what's happening with passporting etc.

I'm not angry with the EU. I'm angry with the brexiteers for shooting this country in the head for some kind of nebulous "sovereignty".

Damn I obviously haven't made up a new word

Lord haw haws?

what analogy are you trying to make here? You are not seriously comparing remainers with Nazi collaborators or the eu with nazis now?

Quentin - I meant to make the same point. How dare those evil Frenchies take advantage of our stupidity Nationalistic self-determinism by daring to invite businesses that will find their trading curtailed by our stupidity incredibly brave decision to their shore where they will actually be able to continue,

It really is quite comical.

If we do eventually leave, it would be stupid of the EU to allow London to dominate Euro clearing, and indeed they may eventually pull it out of London altogether particularly if the Tories decided to deregulate the City again costing the City tens of billions, not to mention the associated tax that will no longer go to the treasury.

Lord haw haws

There are some seriously paranoid posts here regarding the EU.

The percentage of people in the UK or in the rest of the EU who blindly think the EU can do no wrong is really very small. The majority of us pro-EU types think that despite its flaws and areas which need reform it has more positives than negatives and therefore prefer to remain. Nothing more sinister than that.

"The majority of us pro-EU types think that despite its flaws and areas which need reform it has more positives than negatives and therefore prefer to remain."

Id agree with that bananagio, same with the leave flip side. We come in all shapes, sizes, and social spectrum. Spins point though, re the Lord Haw Haws I took as a pretty close analogy of what we do get in here. The blind repetition, the rabid remainer, with nothing more than 'because such and such said' to back it up. Its the mere regurgitation of bias reporting, with little understanding behind it, that when shown to be a fundamntally flawed argument, revert to aupporting their position with more biased reporting. Theres very little independant thinking going on, and lots of blind acceptance that 'it must be true' because the Guardian or the BBC said so. Or even Michael Oleary... (that did amuse me)

Personally, Id like posters to be a little more open as to why they personally, feel as they do. Its nothing to do with suddenly caring about Lex Transfleets bottom line, and everything to do with their personal positions.

In short, and probably why theres so few leavers that even bother engaging, we know the 'establishment' are pro-remain. Continuos regurgitation of that point is nothing new or original, and thats still all that remainers come up with. Regurgitation of EU bias, and if you disagree youre a, whats cardinals favourite attempt at close down, a 'bankbot'.

I can absolutely see why spin used the Lord Haw Haw analogy. We have a steady stream of 'EU calling, EU calling' on here, and IMO (which when I last checked I was still legally entitled to hold....just) is utter bollocks.

Spins OP was absolutely correct. Remainers prophesied doom within days of a leave vote. That really really didnt happen no matter how much 'eu calling' bias on the current position (a year later!) gets thrown around.

Oh, the irony...

Ghost

You say:

"Capitalism Thea and in this country neo liberalism have created the problems you speak of. In the 80's deregulation, globalisation, the sell off on public assets, 3.5 milllion on the dole, 15% interest rates. In the 1990's another house price crash."

"The brexiteers claim to hate capitalism because of globalisation and the banks, yet they hate socialism too. So what is brexit to be if not one or the other? And has anybody told the free market, globalisation loving Tories what the plan is?"

I really don't know what to make of all of that, all those wild assumptions, other than a shit sandwich.

It is funny when those who refuse to acknowledge the record of the last Labour government as 'immaterial', then wants to go back nearly 40-years to the ‘neo liberal’ influence as if the 1970’s was our FINEST decade;

When manufacturing fell from around 30% of our economy to around 20% (when sod all else), mass strikes killing UK industry, as you say inflation/interests rates/pay rises around 15% plus, the basic rate of income tax over 32%, the highest income tax rate up to the 80%s, the tax on un earned income around 96% - and if a company dared made a profit, they paid 50% Corporate Tax.

All that was the far-lefts pre ‘neo’ rollocks wet dream, but pre Thatcher’s reforms who could call that a SUSTAINABLE economy where workers had any incentive to work????

Now WHICH Brexiters “hate capitalism” etc, John McDonnell who said on record that he cheered when the crash happened and he wants to try a ‘new type’ of capitalism?

It won’t be many Conservative voters based on the party’s core beliefs of how to run an economy e.g. keep the State as big as it NEEDS to be, and the workers keep as much of their own earnings to make their own choices, as Labour’s ‘high tax and spending’ record in government, is so pee-poor.

we know the 'establishment' are pro-remain

This would have more weight as an argument if the opposing side didnt feature those very definitions of the "establishment" JRM, Johnson, Gove, IDS, Farage etc etc

Squishy

Re your rather long post starting with me ‘labelling’, apparently, having had several given to me, but please be specific, and if I need to apologise and others don’t, I will do so.

Trying to condense all you points (when I’ not sure where you are coming from) into an answer, is difficult.

On workers rights; I’m not sure who is threatening them here on even in the EU, where it is clear (unless you want to qualify otherwise) that their current rights ‘protect’ those older workers, but not the rest, hence the much higher Temp job rates that have increased significantly from the early 2000s.

On the budget deficit; firstly I reiterate that if government spending had been constant from 2001 to 2008, and just increased due to the recession, THAT is ‘austerity’, but when the then government is increasing deficit borrowing (which was falling in the years before), increasing everyones taxes and also counting on the higher 2000s tax receipts due to a credit/lending ‘bubble’ – hugely increasing the new fixed spending costs of the State, funded by annually larger company/citizen taxes and those of financial ‘sand’, when the recession came there HAD to be a huge adjustment in our spending.

IF you want to go into this further, regarding what the money was being spent on, how much was waste as unreformed services etc there is a post I answered on Labour’s record on the News board, lets take it there – but the problem is once an economy goes from a 2001 balanced UK books, to a then annually increasing money-is-no-object until a £153 billion annual overspend – urgent action is needed and questions asked why our services ‘got by’ on £400 billion a year in 2001, and apparently don’t on £800 billion a year NOW.

As to the speed of deficit reduction getting back to what the country earns, both the Labour Chancellor in power Darling, and the Conservative were planning to severely cut back, albeit by different means, but as the National Debt annually accumulates by our annual budget deficit, and the interest rate charge goes up coming out of annual spending budgets – that money will come out of FUTURE budgets, as we got a taste of what we couldn’t afford in the 2000s.

And during the cutting of the deficit from 2010, there was a solid plan to get the economy back on its feet - that were opposed the the opposition for the first parliament as a plan that would COST 1 million jobs - that brings in the tax receipts to pay for our services now, and in the future.

Unfortunately for the Conservative administration or anyone to make a comparison, there were no other plan of action in place to solve the problems of a huge increase in spending over the 2000s, so while I’m sure there have been Tory mistakes, it would have been nice if there was an economic/deficit reduction plan in place from 2008/9 to BUILD on, not start from scratch (having been out of power for 13-years and left a very different economy).

Personally, Id like posters to be a little more open as to why they personally, feel as they do. Its nothing to do with suddenly caring about Lex Transfleets bottom line, and everything to do with their personal positions.

I think most of us have been pretty clear about this if you have been reading these threads for a while. Personally, apart from the obvious general benefits of the EU (peace, increased trade, better environment) I personally benefit from the EU because I work a large UK company whose UK manufacturing site depends on free movement (JIT supply chains, in both directions) and because it enables me to live in the same country as my children.

Mistigri

On 'increased trade'; I would argue that the UK got lazy and relied too much on EU trade, and how much more prosperous we would have been as a country IF the Eurozone as a whole would have had a much stronger recovery from the crash.

But as someone who worked in international companies (with international colleagues) for most of my life, and had non UK clients to visit - I can honestly say that my life was enriched by the experience, so encouraged our children to be so open minded.

I was listening to an Australian negotiator the other day saying on a Trade Deal they wouldn't want 'free movement' for everyone, but it might make sense for both parties if 'business people' could travel and live (I assume with families) with freedom - and I suspect that when the Brussels demands become less contentious, and they sit down constructively closer to end 2018, that is a 'benefit' both the UK and EU could agree on. IMO

Personally I doubt that the city of London will lose much Caroline.

Firstly because the Americans have been loudly refusing to play ball, they insist that clearing must stay in London.

Secondly, and much more broadly, for the same reason you don't see Waitrose, Sainsburys or tesco opening up branches in Europe. In fact there has been more expansion into the far East than into Europe.

We open up our markets and you can see the evidence with Lidl, aldi, most likely your electricity and water company etc. The EU states are inherently protectionist and make doing business there rather difficult.

Just as the corn laws opened our farms up to world trade, despite I should add prophesies of doom akin to brexit, so we should again worth nothing to fear.

Bank of America to move some City of London roles to Dublin post-Brexit

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/21/bank-of-america-to-move-some-uk-jobs-to-dublin-post-brexit

"Firstly because the Americans have been loudly refusing to play ball, they insist that clearing must stay in London."

How is planning to relocate part of their operations considered "refusing to play ball"? It's not their ball to play with in the first place. They will go where they have to to keep their profits up. You comment shows a deliberate complete lack of any understanding of the financial industry.

I've seen many branches of Tesco in Europe. They are quite a big player in the Czech republic and some other countries. Other countries have far more established chains that would be difficult to compete with (particularly as far as quality is concerned).

As a whole recruitment in the city is booming I'm hearing.

As for British supermarkets they are not in Belgium, France, Germany or Spain. Well, I did see a single Marks and Spencer recently in the latter.

Spin: If you think that I "spontaneously agree with the EU's positions" you're wrong. Of course the EU are playing hard ball. Of course their approach to negotiations is about politics as well as economics. I never expected the EU to be particularly nice to us when we're leaving, despite assurances that were made pre-ref that we would hold all the cards and would be able to establish great relations with the EU. Some leavers even claimed that Brexit would be welcomed as mutually beneficial to both parties!

In fact, could we all agree that the EU's approach to the negotiation is another great example of a "project fear" prediction coming true?

"If any of you followed by EU army thread during the referendum then you can guess why" Now, if you want to see real panic-driven hyperbolic speculation, that's a great place to start!

Thea: The labelling I was referring to was to do with sweeping generalisations of "remoaners" and "socialist" (although apparently I'm also "the establishment" protecting my "position"). Not the worst thing I've been called on here, so I'm not too bothered. Even, to some extent, the label "pro-EU" is a bit misleading. I prefer the term brexit-sceptic myself.

"On workers rights; I’m not sure who is threatening them here on even in the EU" : generally, the people giddy with excitement over "red tape bonfires" are the ones I find most threatening.
"And during the cutting of the deficit from 2010, there was a solid plan to get the economy back on its feet" I have already explained why I think this plan is counter productive. I also think this plan has more to do with ideology than it has to do with sound, evidence based economics. Whatever the reason for the deficit becoming so big in the first place, and even if public spending was too high (and consider changing demographics), trying to cut too fast, too hard will make things worse in the long term, and cause even more problems for those future budgets you speak of.
But all that's a diversion anyway.
I certainly don't think that the damage to business that Brexit risks will help reduce the deficit.

I Have included a picture of Lady Haw Haw, so we know who to look out for.

"recruitment in the city is booming I'm hearing"

A) I doubt you're hearing any thing of the sort

B) They need to get all those bilingual candidates in ready to redeploy to which every city they will betaking their business to.

"recruitment in the city is booming I'm hearing"

Which city?
Not in London, from what I hear. In fact I read there's a hiring slowdown in both Edinburgh and London. It may have been booming before, but not now.

As a whole recruitment in the city is booming I'm hearing.

Indeed, financial institutions are busy recruiting for new headquarters in Amsterdam and Dublin.

Can anyone name ONE Investment Bank in the City that has announced that is will move location, of the Head Office, or its holding company, lock, stocks and barrel, to an EU country?

Yes to get around financial passporting for doing business in the EU, every bank, insurer and asset manager based in Britain are already making contingency plans to shift some operations to continental Europe after Brexit takes effect in case access to the EU single market is closed off - and this could be around 20-25% of departmental activities/jobs.

As don't forget from London they do business with the Far and Middle East in the morning, the continent of Africa obviously Europe, before the Americas from mid afternoon.

• But most banks if have to move staff are then looking to enlarge existing operations in European centres where they already have offices - so there will not be a central Eurozone country where they will all be together, as now..

• Most want their key non EU business teams still left in London where regular business meetings are held, and no other country has the infrastructure, office space, and trained staff, as London.

"Finance firms keen to keep staff in Britain post-Brexit"

(Terribly sorry to disappoint the 'nay sayers')