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Politics

Brexit consequences

999 replies

Spinflight · 04/07/2017 07:30

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

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Motheroffourdragons · 14/07/2017 22:34

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CardinalSin · 15/07/2017 01:02

Just too obvious...

Brexit consequences
mathanxiety · 15/07/2017 07:29

Carolinesbeanies Fri 14-Jul-17 14:10:09

"Hopefully a smaller carbon footprint."

Clearly a smaller carbon footprint? Math, youre starting to answer your own questions.

"I'm not sure how it is possible to think that trade with the E27 will continue as it does now. Have you ever even seen the number of european lorries crossing the channel every day ? This is a huge amount of trade which is all of a sudden will be subject to far more stringent checks than currently - that's if we want to take back control of our borders. "
................

Carolinesbeanies, for starters, "Hopefully a smaller carbon footprint." came from TheaSauruss.

Secondly, you are completely wrong about the chaos that will ensue once the woefully unprepared sovereign independent customs operation opens for business in 2019.

GladAllOver · 15/07/2017 08:47

Out of the EU we charge them for their exports, for which there is a huge trade deficit. This is free money for us.

Wrong.

We can't charge them for their exports, and won't be free money for us.

If the government applies an import tariff, it is the UK customers who will pay it. There is no benefit to the UK, other than it may reduce imports a little if some customers choose not to buy.

squishysquirmy · 15/07/2017 09:27

Wow, what a ridiculous amount of contorting yourselves around words you are prepared to do in order to imply that Cardinal is racist against Africans. Hmm
The EU DOES import from developing countries. Britain has been importing plenty from developing countries as a member of the EU. There is no evidence, yet, that post Brexit we will freely trade with these developing countries. Nobody knows with any certainty what kind of agreements we will have, or even what agreements we will aim for. So to hold up leavers as defenders of free and fair trade, and champions of developing countries is a bit rich when you see who's in the ranks. I have seen no indication from any leaver within a whiff of power that we will increase support to developing countries to set up their own processing facilities (but please share if you have).

squishysquirmy · 15/07/2017 09:29

Glad: They claim (with zero evidence) that all imported EU products have such a big profit margin, that the EU business will definitely absorb all of the tariff and there will be no price increase for the consumer. Apparently.

squishysquirmy · 15/07/2017 09:38

^Meant to say, the ridiculous, completely unfounded and nasty accusations against Cardinal make me suspect that you don't actually have any decent arguments left to make, Spin. Hence the shit flinging.

CardinalSin · 15/07/2017 10:31

And I still can't understand how anyone can possibly even suggest that we will lower our carbon footprint by importing things from tens of thousands of miles away, rather than from hundreds of miles. It really is the most ridiculous suggestion I've heard in a long time. I honestly can't understand how anyone could even post such a thing and expect anyone to take them seriously!

Carolinesbeanies · 15/07/2017 11:19

"Carolinesbeanies, for starters, "Hopefully a smaller carbon footprint." came from TheaSauruss"

I know. I was expanding on (was it your point?) that goods currently went via spain, france, belgium, Uk, back to belgium, or such like. The obvious removal of the UK stop off post brexit, was commented on by Thea, I expanded. Clearly I missed putting an eye roll. Here. Hmm

TheaSaurass · 15/07/2017 11:20

CardinalSin

Answering 'hopefully a lower carbon footprint' was indeed my josh (you are rather cynically trying to use to smear another's opinions) to the following said by another poster;

"Anecdotally, I live in Belgium most of the time, and when I order from my UK Amazon account, if I track something I often watch it being sourced from somewhere in Europe to Belgium, on to the UK and then back to Belgium again. Ridiculous, I know. But what will the process be after Brexit?"

I did also mention the opportunity under a low tax Conservative government to bring manufacturing etc jobs back here as the like of China's costs rise and it becomes net cheaper to manufacture in the west - but frankly at this moment, I'd be please just to get the 2 million manufacturing jobs Labour lost (1 million by 2005 before the crash even began) - to reduce the carbon footprint of goods we need to import.

Carolinesbeanies · 15/07/2017 11:30

"You don't have to cover every angle - just maybe one of the specific scenarios I highlighted in my earlier post to Spin."

Ive had to scroll way back to find the post that I think youre refering to, but if I spend the next 20 mins replying to the wrong one, you owe me a beer!!

I think its this post, so lets go one by one.

"What if my employers were due to send me to the Hague for a meeting/conference? Will I be able to get off that plane in April? Will that plane even be able to land in Schipol?"

Im a tad confused, as to what you think may happen (which is probably why I read 2 secs of this post and scrolled on by). The UK Passport currently allows you to travel to 173 countries visa free. It is a legal document that stands alone and has been legally accepted for generations by all the individual nations that make up the EU.

Why do you think Holland, or any EU country would suspend UK passports? Im really not being obtuse, but truly dont understand the logic of this question. That the UK passport in April 2019 will only allow me tourist visitation rights of 3 months (which is the generalised period for visitation) may be your point, but the 'suspension' of UK passport rights in European countries, is just off the scale of dolalalala.
The same applies to flights. Why do you think flights from the UK wont be allowed into Schipol? It is a bemusing assertion. Are you saying aircraft that take off from London wont 'conform' to some EU reg or something and will therefore be barred? I truly dont get what youre trying to say.
I get the feeling this is indeed remainer delusion Ive been refering to, that Brexit means all europeans are barred from the UK and all UK citizens are barred from Europe. Thats really really really not what any form of Brexit is. The rights you receive as an individual under EU membership, is the right to live and work within the EU. Those in Schengen have the right to travel freely. Were not in schengen, so Passports have always been required to enter the 'schengen zone'. Absolutely nothing will change regards visiting and travelling around Europe as our current requirements to enter (passport required) are exactly the same as a non-europeans to enter. A US citizen can travel to France on his passport, and then freely travel around the schengen zone, why wouldnt a UK citizen be able too?

I can assure you, there is no checkpoint on the Belgium/French border for 'Japanese please use blue route'. The fact the EU have chosen to do away with border controls for ALL visitors, through the Schengen zone, is their prerogative.

Are you perhaps confusing the EEA Identity Card Scheme? We dont use that.

squishysquirmy · 15/07/2017 11:34

Low tax? It will take more than just low tax to make British manufacturing on a big scale competitive again. China's costs may be rising, but that is more likely to drive manufacturing to even cheaper countries, not more developed ones. Automation is being increasingly used, but this is world wide. In my opinion, the countries most likely to grow their economy are the ones investing in science, technology and infrastructure, not the ones paying lip service to reviving past glories of manufacturing. Almost everyone involved in British science and technology have expressed very grave concerns over Brexit.

squishysquirmy · 15/07/2017 11:46

"Why do you think Holland, or any EU country would suspend UK passports?"

They wouldn't, but if NO AGREEMENT was reached, we would not have the automatic right to enter the EU without a Visa. Your passport does not give you the right to enter any country as a tourist for 3 months.

"Are you saying aircraft that take off from London wont 'conform' to some EU reg or something and will therefore be barred?"

Yes, If NO AGREEMENT was reached.

"A US citizen can travel to France on his passport"

Yes, because the US has a reciprocal AGREEMENT in place with the EU.

The citizens of many countries do not have the right to travel into, or around, the EU without a visa.
Citizens of countries with reciprocal AGREEMENTS in place do have the right to visa free travel.
Passports are not quite the magic free pass you seem to think.

Now, there is no reason why a deal on those things shouldn't be reached.... unless we were stupid enough to walk away with no deals arranged.

squishysquirmy · 15/07/2017 11:49

To be clear, in case you didn't realise already, I was not talking about Brexit in general, but the consequences of walking away with no deals arranged.

squishysquirmy · 15/07/2017 11:52

www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/british-airports-warn-flights-to-europe-will-be-grounded-aviation/
The EU Open Skies agreement introduced in the Nineties currently provides uniform rules for the airlines and airports of member states and has helped cultivate a booming airport network allowing British holidaymakers to fly to hundreds of destinations on the continent - many at cut prices. One in two passengers handled by UK airports flies to an EU member state.
.....
Mr Jankovec said the position of the UK’s airports and airlines is more urgent than other industries as the World Trade Organisation rules, which the UK would revert to should no deal be reached with the EU, does not cover air travel.

But ACI Europe, the European Region Airports Council International, which represents more than 500 airports in 45 countries, including 21 major hubs in the UK, said such freedom will not be maintained if the British government does not develop a strategy on “air connectivity” once outside the EU. It warned that legal issues could mean all flights between the EU and UK are grounded.

Carolinesbeanies · 15/07/2017 12:20

"What about the delivery of tinned tomatoes due to arrive at my local supermarket? Will the lorry they are on be able to enter the UK? Will the haulagers know what the policy is, will they know where they are allowed to go and what they can deliver?
What about a UK tap manufacturer, that imports a certain seal from Germany? Will they be able to meet their orders? If their consignment cannot enter the UK, will they get a refund on what they have paid? It is, after all, not the supplier's fault.
What will happen to the exports of that business? They can't ship to the EU anymore. They can't ship abroad until new deals are arranged. Will the government communicate clearly and promptly with businesses to let them know who the can and can't export to? While it gets sorted out, will the company have enough capital to keep paying the wages of their staff? What if they are a SME? Will there be government assistance to help them?"

I will have answer this ultra simplistically, not because Im neccesarily dumbing down, but to write in length about all the areas this covers would require me to spend a couple of days explaining . The TIR, the various tariffs, conformity etc so for ease I'll just use the Common Customs Tariff which applies to most goods entering the EU. (nor do I want to get bogged down by the CAP)

Your first incorrect assumption, is that importing to the UK from an EU supplier will become 'illegal'. That is totally untrue. Anyone can import into the UK as long as UK terms, conditions and customs duties are paid.

There would be no difference between a Spanish supplier and a current non-eu supplier. Said spanish tomatoes dont attract any eu tariffs internally(as grown in the eu) but the only variance to the current system, would be the Spanish supplier now has to pay import tax to the UK or tariffs that would apply as they now do to non-eu suppliers. Our customs already have the mechanism for imports. World wide, varying rates, varying tariffs etc If the UK are happy to accept the current customs documentation system used within the EU, (which of course they will as most world suppliers are bringing their customs and tarif codes inline) then nothing changes in that respect.

If its the 'mechanism' that confuses, let me go further.

If said tomatoes are from outside an EU country, they can be imported directly to the (non-eu) UK free from the EUs Common Customs Tariff or any other EU restriction, even if they are driven through europe. This is currently done using whats called the NCTS, where the goods are electronically registered as "non-union goods", and they must be transported in secure units. They then travel just as freely as 'eu' traffic to the country of destination. This currently works as millions of tonnes of non-eu goods, heading to non-eu destinations currently travel by road through europe. Due to the shift in security focus across the EU, and the migrant crisis, the vast majority of hauliers now use secure units as a matter of course whether union or non-union goods. UK import tax and/or tariff would apply.

German parts suppliers, everything stays the same Common Customs Tariff is 0, UK import tax/tariff applies. You went on to say what if the UK refuses the consignment? My answer, Why would they? UK import taxes/tariffs may apply, but absolutely nothing changes.

The Common Customs Tariff only applies to goods entering the EU, for 'use' within the EU. The same with compliance, standards etc. If the UK are happy to accept 'goods' meeting the standards the EU impose on themselves, then nothing changes. Why would the UK on the 1/4/2019 change any of those standards internally? They may longer term lessen them, but Ive yet to hear any argument that more regulation is needed.

Moving onto exports from the UK to eu states. Youre utterly incorrect assumption, is that exporting from the UK will somehow become illegal post Brexit. That is really really really not true. Any supplier from almost anywhere in the world can export to the EU. They must however meet the terms, conditions that apply to said goods and pay customs/duties/levies, to do so.

So what about the british tap exporter selling into the EU? Well the first incorrect assumptions remainers make, is to treat existing UK exporters as 'new' suppliers to the EU. Theyre not. Those that need licences have them. Those that had to meet whatever specific standards for compliance, have already done so. Those hoops have already been jumped through. He will also already have an EORI number, use the CHIEF system (Custom Handling Import Export Freight). The ONLY difference is, that said taps, initially change status from "union goods" to "non-union goods". The current systems absolutely support both types of goods.

What then has to be done (but within the existing customs handling systems) he will have to do is Entry and Customs Declaration. This is all supported electronically under the same CHIEF systems or if hes used the NTCS. In short, he knows his tarif codes, but instead of being 'union goods', they are now 'non-union' goods. He must then pay the customs duties/levies/tariffs due. Once thats paid, the goods then become 'union' goods, and they get delivered/transported just as they did before. Its all electronic, its all done in advance.

Thats the mechanism. Transportation, hauliers, all work exactly as they did before. Arriving at Dover is no different, the same documentation is presented along with the drivers same passport and vehicle documentation. Rules of transportation are the same. Custom checks of goods will be as random as they always were.

The potential delays, issues, may be 'non-union' goods arriving at the Dover. This however, should only apply to a small number of 'new' exporters whilst they get to grips with exporting to EU procedures.

Does that help Squishy? The bun fight is the 'new' customs tariffs/levies/duties, that both our Spanish and UK suppliers have to pay, not some invisible trade barrier that somehow makes trade illegal. Not even the staunchest EU fearmonger in Brussels has demanded trade with the UK should be made illegal. Its utter dolalalalalala remainer tosh.

Carolinesbeanies · 15/07/2017 12:24

"we would not have the automatic right to enter the EU without a Visa. " Yes we do. The laws and travel rights that apply to UK passports are accepted by all EU member states. The terms of us 'joining' the EU did not require us to give up previously demanded visa requirements. The UK passport and its travel rights stand alone, and are legislated for in each and every country. (Just in case the 'EU' vanished overnight).

Carolinesbeanies · 15/07/2017 12:33

EU Open skies absolutely reflects International airline requirements and standards. International requirements and standards, top trump EU open skies by a long chalk. Again there are indeed 'mechanisms' that allow charges and costs to be 'managed internally' within the EU, but Im now losing the will to live to explain Hmm The systems in place allow 'external' flights to pay those costs.

Carolinesbeanies · 15/07/2017 12:35

Heres atip squishy (and mathanxiety does the same thing). If a media report, or the BBC say "could" you know its utter theoretical bollocks.

Motheroffourdragons · 15/07/2017 12:39

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sticklebrix · 15/07/2017 12:41

Almost everyone involved in British science and technology have expressed very grave concerns over Brexit.

Absolutely true squishy.

GraceGrape · 15/07/2017 12:46

I don't think anyone is saying that trade with the UK will become illegal Caroline, just that stomping off with no deal and no transitional arrangement will create a very chaotic situation. All trade is governed by certain rules and common arrangements. We do not even know yet if the UK would be permitted to trade under WTO rules as its membership of that organisation is part of the EU. I agree with your point that existing British exporters will already meet the required regulations etc but the trouble is that nobody seems clear exactly what else will need to be in place which will leave a lot of confusion.

New systems need time to be planned and prepared for and if we spend the next 18 months on negotiations that ultimately fail, there will be no time to make those preparations. The same goes for reaching a reciprocal agreement for visa-free travel.

It seems inevitable (and I think DD has agreed) that there must be a transitional EFTA style agreement. Personally I believe that will end up running indefinitely.

squishysquirmy · 15/07/2017 13:12

I never said trade would become illegal.
In the immediate aftermath of walking away with no deal arranged, it would become much more difficult. Especially if the haulagers, drivers, importing companies, exporting companies, and customs staff weren't 100% well informed on what was happening, and what the new procedures were to be.
Yes- all the problems I highlighted could be managed with new agreements. But that relies on new agreements being made, doesn't it?

It is NOT a given that we will automatically revert to pre-EU visa reciprocity if we walk without a deal. Just vecause we used to have agreements in place before.The world has changed since then, and new controls have been introduced in that time. (Not sure what impact ETIAS might have).
Re the open skies agreement - I linked to a Telegraph article, as they were pro-Brexit not a BBC one and there is no "could" or "might" about it.

CardinalSin · 15/07/2017 13:22

These BanksBots do like their Strawmen don't they...

abilockhart · 15/07/2017 13:39

The price of trade deals with countries in Asia and Africa will be that the UK allows immigration from these countries.

The attempted EU-India agreement foundered not because of the rest of the EU but, in substantial part, because Britain rejected it. Attempts to open the EU to more Indian IT specialists and other professionals (the so-called Mode 4) foundered on the objections of the UK, notably those of Theresa May.

Similarly, the price of a trade deal with the US will be the opening health services in the UK to US companies, i.e. privatisation of the NHS.

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