Is Theresa May moving closer to wanting to leave the EU?

[claig]

Tim Montgomerie is saying that she possibly is.

This would be a gamechanger in the Tory leadership election. She has already toughened up her immigration position.

If she goes against the modernisers and challenges the Establishment on the EU, she could possibly win the Tory leadership.

If Tory scepticism makes for Conservative leader, there will be around 64 or them, all likely to want to leave the EU come what May.

The over 200 EU undecided by definition are yet to make a firm decision and even if they go for May, she would be one of two put forward for the whole membership malarkey to decide upon.

I guess it doesn’t matter to you OP but the EU Referendum will be done, dusted and consigned to the history books – along with a United Kingdom Independence Party – before a P.M. job opening appears.

'I guess it doesn’t matter to you OP but the EU Referendum will be done, dusted'

But if May has the courage to go against the modernisers in the EU Referendum, then it could be curtains for the modernisers in the Referendum and we may leave the EU, after which May would be voted Tory leader and the modernisers would join Blair in the dustbin of history.

Cameron must be having kittens, because his favourite, his pal, Osborne, the anointed one, might not make it if May spoils the party.

People have been writing May off, but she may be about to trump the lot of the old boys' network.

claig ... it hasn't taken much, but I think I know where you are going with this, so I'll make your day.

In Conservative leader elections going back to (and including) Thatcher, the favourite rarely wins, the winner usually is an outsider, similar to Corbyn really, but only not such a weird duck.

I suspect "mordernisers" won't be too much of an issue in anything, as it mainly seems to be YOUR issue - and Jez do YOU have an issue with it - bordering on the obsessed.

One 'event' at a time, especially if Cameron ends up bringing the UK out of the EU and he feels that he has to step down early.

A moderniser would say that

"He's Back: Return Of Cameron The Moderniser"

news.sky.com/story/1454695/hes-back-return-of-cameron-the-moderniser

Good one, right back at me, its not just you obsessing.

But lets look at the second line; "In his speech at the Tories' spring forum, the PM sounded more like the leader of old who wanted to broaden his party's appeal."

A leader/party that wants to broaden his party's appeal, I can see why that could be an issue and drive voters away. Not.

Corbyn has veered so far left there is so much ground a Conservative Party can now occupy, and the party while retaining their CORE values, are being given the opportunity by Labour, to steal some of theirs.

No one within the Labour Party can ever say no one warned them that Corbynism was a bad idea, especially as many of those voices were FROM within the Labour Party seen as having an agenda.

So if one of the worst thing they can accuse Cameron off at the end of his term is 'broadening his party's appeal', I suspect he'll take that and wear it with pride.

We will be leaving Europe come the referendum. The refugee crisis has made that a certainty.

'its not just you obsessing'

Exactly. It's what being a real conservative is all about. You are a moderniser and can't understand it.

Don't bother trying to convince me that Francis Maude and the modernisation is a good thing. I'm real conservative, it doesn't wash with me or most of the party faithful.

'We will be leaving Europe come the referendum. The refugee crisis has made that a certainty.'

You would think so, but you can never tell. The Establishment will pull every trick in the book to try and keep us in. Project Fear, the whole usual game. Will the people see through it? They'll attack Farage, call him racist and say that he epitomises what leaving the EU is all about. They will use all their lackeys to help them.

claig .... "I'm real conservative"

That quote of yours tells me I'd be entering some Twilight Zone with Farage and Corbyn, where I really don't want to go.

If you think broadening a parties appeal is a bad strategy when the main opposition parties have either; shrunk to 8 MPs, will disappear after the EU Referendum, or disappearing up their own rectum - then I really have nothing to say, especially to anyone currently voting Conservative and sees the appeal in any of the above political alternatives..

'where I really don't want to go.'

Of course you don't, you're a moderniser.

'then I really have nothing to say'

I'm not surprised.

There is nothing wrong with being a 'moderniser' as long as the core policies/values remain the same; you are trying to put some derogatory 'slant' on it as one might accuse someone of paedophilia and expect to get a board reaction, but I would bet 9.9 people out of 10, would not only give a moderniser rats tail, but wonder why some duffus keeps using it.

Daily Mail praises Theresa May

"DAILY MAIL COMMENT: Magnificent Mrs May shows PM the way"

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3262736/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Magnificent-Mrs-shows-PM-way.html

Peter Oborne, our second greatest real conservative commentator after Peter Hitchens, praises Theresa May

"She stood up for ordinary people... now shouldn't Theresa May lead the 'No to the EU' campaign, argues PETER OBORNE
..
Approximately half of last year’s migrants came from Europe — as is legal under EU rules. There is nothing we can do about this without drastic change in our relations with Europe, including a new treaty that reforms the freedom of movement principle.

But David Cameron has already ruled out change on this scale.

If Theresa May is to be true to her speech, she will have to campaign for Britain to leave the EU.

The No campaign may just have discovered its leader.

No wonder the political and media establishment hated her glorious speech so much.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3262671/She-stood-ordinary-people-shouldn-t-Theresa-lead-No-EU-campaign-argues-PETER-OBORNE.html

If there is one thing the Daily Mail and real conservatives don't like it is modernisers. If the Mail ends up backing Theresa May, it could spell the end for Cameron's plans about his anointee and the end for the modernisers.

What do you have against modernisers ?
Life wasn't that great in medieval times.
Oh, right you think Cameron & Osbourne are too left wing, too soft on immigrants, welfare, ...
And controlled by Lizard People HQ in Brussels.

Theresa May has been tactically positioned, not to win an election, but attract a certain voting demographic to the Tories.

One of the Tories needs to make a firm anti-immigration statement, with a view to winning votes lost to UKIP. Cameron can't because it's too radical and not centrist. They don't want to lose any more support. They need to place various spokespeople strategically within popular discourse to attract the maximum number of votes.

If May proves popular I will eat my baby's shitty nappy.

They have a long term strategy. May is red herring being used to steal Ukippers.

That sounds fiendishly cunning, squidzin and maybe true
< shudders at nappy snack >

Remember Paddy Ashdown's promise to eat his hat on Election Night !
However, I thought May was setting out her stall as the leadership candidate of the Tory right.

In their leadership election, Tory MPs cut down the field to the final 2 candidates, on which the party membership then vote.
Note: their leader starts off with the support / tolerance of most MPs.

Tory MPs are probably more interested in winning the next General Election - and retaining their own seats & perks - than in ideological purity.
So they'll want to broaden their appeal somehow.

They might choose:
. Candidate 1, who is on the left of the Tory Party and could hoover up some LibDems plus
. Candidate 2, who is tough on immigration, to appeal to both UKIP and the Labour Right, like May.

I agree the EU Referendum would be over by then, so maybe eurosceptic / europhile would no longer be important.
"Moderniser" tends to be positive for voters under 70, whereas "back to the 1950s" appeals to very few.

'What do you have against modernisers ? '

How long have you got? I don't like politically correct luvvies who want to do a nanny state and tell people that they aren't allowed to buy 2-for-1s of alcohol at Tescos or who want a sugar tax or who have rooftop wind turbines and hug hoodies. I like Farage like millions of others.

'Oh, right you think Cameron & Osbourne are too left wing, too soft on immigrants, welfare, ..'

No, I think they are politically correct phoneys who use nasty tactics of driving vans around streets with signs telling illegal immigrants to go home and who want people to lose their homes if they can't pay the bedroom tax. I am with Farage for scrapping the bedroom tax and for controlling our borders. I don't agree with modernisers who hug hoodies and huskies, I'm with Farage.

'And controlled by Lizard People HQ in Brussels.'

I think they are controlled by bureaucrats in Brussels but they are bland boring bureaucrats like Juncker, not as exciting as lizards.

I'm not for modernisers who give hard-earned taxpayer money to charidees with "self-referring clients" while people lose their homes because they can't afford the bedroom tax.

We were told that Cameron was mesmerised by the Kids Comnpany founder. I'm not surprised which is why I am with Farage and not luvvies.

'If May proves popular I will eat my baby's shitty nappy.'

squidzin, I don't think Cameron and Osborne are very popular among the Tory faithful because they are modernisers. They are popular among some MPs, Oxbridge types and luvvies, but not among ordinary Tory voters. The Daily Mail is teh real voice of the Tory masses and it isn't too keen on Cameron. It likes Osborne in that he is financially competent, but the Daily Mail could easily swing to some traditional Tory values like Theresa May is beginning to put forward and if it does, then it will be curtains for the modernisers because the Daily Mail is the voice of Middle England.

It would then be between Boris and Theresa. Everyone was starting to rule her out, but if she gives the Tory faithful back their party, then everything could change overnight. If she scrapped teh rooftop wind turbines and said she never understood what that was all about, she would win hands down.

Osborne's fate is tied to a large extent to Cameron's because Osborne is Cameron's anointed one. If Cameron comes back from a meeting with Juncker and the Brussels bosses with nothing much to show and if he loses the EU Referendum for the Establishment or it is very close, then it won't be good for him and unfortunately that will affect Osborne too.

If Theresa positions herself with the people against the luvvies and the Daily Mail runs an editorial saying "at last some common sense, no more metropolitan madness, no more hugging hoodies or rooftop wind turbines", then the entire political landscape could change overnight.

Here is an article by former Labour MP, Jacqui Smith saying that Theresa may win. The article needs a health warning because it is Jacqui Smith, Labour, and I think she has got it wrong in thinking that Theresa May's "nasty party" stuff or centre position would ever win the Tory leadership. But if Theresa puts all that behind her and goes back to a more Thatcher style then she could win it because political correctness is finished as we have seen with Donald Trump's success.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2015/09/former-home-secretary-jacqui-smith-theresa-may-tory-leader-labour-should

Just as the Labour Party has rebelled against its modernisers, its Oxbridge luvvies, and moved back to real Labour, the Tories may also rebel against their modernisers and Oxbridge luvvies and go back to real Tory Thatcher type values.

"Incoming Tory MPs see Theresa May as next likely leader"

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/90562802-c34a-11e4-ac3d-00144feab7de.html#axzz3oxBSeHu8

Some TV pundits were saying that the favourite never wins the Tory leadership.

claig .... as someone who firmly supports Farage/UKIP one day, President Assad of Syria another, Corbyn/Labour the next and just luvs Donald Trump/Republican - I realise that you must be a huge FLOATING social democratic voter - but please don't worry yourself about who will next lead the Conservative Party.

It won't happen until 2019/20 and if Conservative voters aren't yet overly bovvered, and frankly I'm very concerned that you have so much on your political plate that your credibility is suffering - why not take my advice and wait a year or two, and then worry about it.