Do you think the Tories will get a majority in 2015?

[lottieandmia]

?

Or are we more likely to have another coalition?

Unlucky83 ….re your “But I don't think the welfare state can afford to do that and look after everyone who truly 'needs' help - has no other option at all.”

Through my experience with knee cartilage problems years ago and a current family experience, I fully understand your partners problem, it seemed to take a while to get the treatment you need, but there comes a point where you are just left to get on with it.

But I disagree with your quote above, the State HAS to afford to look after those that need help (such as yours), and locally I have been encouraged by the social services who appear to have a directive to ensure the safety net works for the workers who for no fault of their own ‘fall’, rather than everyone else, of a few years ago.

I don’t know if you have checked into the ‘savings’ aspect, regarding the amount that may preclude you from gaining extra financial/practical help – but if you haven’t gone in and spoke to anyone about your situation, I suggest that you do – even if the only help they can offer is via some government agencies that offer retraining services.

Currently I’ve seen that if they can patch people up one way or another and keep them ‘productive’ for both the state and themselves, that seems to be the priority and there are more options now. Someone literally crippling themselves by work, helps neither the , or the state, over the medium to long term. IMO.

isitmebut. Your opinion on UKIP is misguided and pompous. People like you believe the working class should not have an opinion, particularly on immigration which effects them more than most. Your views on UKIP are akin to pissing in the wind, the public are not stupid they have been lied to and betrayed by all of the three major parties, they see an alternative and they will vote for UKIP.

As far as Swann is concerned she is a complete idiot, she knew the policies of UKIP when she joined, she is just another fair weather dope, who cannot make her mind up who she prefers, the Tories or UKIP.

Trying to intellectualise something that is as basic as at people of this country not having a voice and saying that they are misguided, says more
about you, than UKIP. If anyones misguided it's you.

Isit I really doubt we could get financial help...but I'm hoping he will at some point realise he can't carry on and retrain etc - help with that would be great - but he is pushing 50 now - going to be hard.
He has been getting treatment for 6+ years, he is off to see yet another physiotherapist next week...
But I do agree - if you are having knee problems get them checked out asap.
I have a dodgy knee too - not often painful but does click loudly when I go up hill sometimes! (My sister joked it was like the clock in the crocodile in Peter pan) - agony if I kneel down. I've had an MRI and basically it is old damage, not suitable for surgery now. They have done the best they can for it. (Did flag it up a long time ago when I had lots of unrelated serious health problems and in that leg specifically so it was overlooked)

The fact is the welfare state should be able to help out short term - and maybe there needs to be a more flexible approach - but longer term? I still don't think that is affordable..if it isn't causing any damage, sometimes we just have to get on with it...

(I think they are doing that now actually, before if you went on DLA, you stayed there and now you get reassessed? I think I could have been put on it ...but didn't know I could... and don't need to be on it now.
Same with disabled badges for cars - I had one, I needed one, against all expectations my leg got better (near normal now) - I gave it up but in theory the GP had signed that it was a problem for life so I could have just kept renewing...)

Nice deluded speech Ironmaiden…telling me what I am and how ‘the people’ have been lied to by all three main parties.

Answer one question to show Ukip are different;

Ukip have one policy; to extract the UK from the EU, thus stopping EU immigration, but they cannot deliver it. TRUE or FALSE.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/24/ukip-eu-exit-take-years
“Ukip will have to negotiate a withdrawal from the European Union over many years and the party still has to work out the details of how it would secure such an exit, a leading Ukip MEP candidate in May's European elections has conceded.”

“Janice Atkinson, who is number two on the party's candidate list in the South East England constituency, admitted it would be impossible just to walk away from the EU.”

So if Ukip themselves tell us that they can’t deliver on the ONE policy they have and promote, before a Conservative 2015 majority referendum in 2017 - which political party (and posters on Mumsnet) are being disingenuous with the public.

If I’m wrong, please tell me why.

And why did Gordon sell the gold? Like taking your gold chain to the pawn shop when you don't have too - much better holding on to it for when you might actually really need it....

It was on the advice of Goldman Sachs. If you think the BofE isn't selling gold and gold futures now under Mark Carnage you're deluding yourself. If you go to goldmoney.com there is an article there noting a 'discrepancy' of 400 tonnes of physical gold. They're doing this to keep gold prices artificially low, which will eventually bite them in the arse and hand everything over to those buying the gold, namely China, Russia and the Gulf States, who already own massive amounts of US and European treasury bonds, though China is quietly getting rid of a large chunk of theirs as they know the US dollar is more or less finished as a world reserve currency.

Neoliberalism always fails. Austerity doesn't work, they've had over 20 years of it in Japan and their economy is still in the crapper and will only get worse. Their debt to GDP ratio is getting higher every year, they're busy printing money, diluting the real value of the Yen and just delaying the inevitable collapse.

The biggest mistake made in 2008 was bailing out the banks. They should've been allowed to fail, then nationalised like ABN AMRO. We would then at least not have greedy wankers gambling with our money, knowing we'll bail them out again when they fail.

Alexandra Swann is not happy with the way she has been reported on in the papers. She is still a UKIP member but she is no longer standing as a representative because she is moving out of politics into another career

"I made the conscious decision around a year ago to move away from professional politics and retrain in psychology, with the aim of pursuing a career in mental health. I still take part in tv/radio/panel debates but no longer under the UKIP banner. This is simply because a) I do not want to be affiliated with any political party; and b) I am not an official party spokesperson, so claiming to speak for UKIP would, I believe, be wrong"

www.alexandraswann.co.uk/

Everybody knows that the meeja and the chums will try all sorts of ways to knock the people's party, UKIP, because the Establishment and its chums are terrified that the people have woken up and realised that they are "all in it together".

'Ukip have one policy; to extract the UK from the EU, thus stopping EU immigration, but they cannot deliver it. TRUE or FALSE.'

FALSE. UKIP has lots of policies - scrap green taxes, scrap Climate Change Act, reduce taxation, bring in grammar schools, scrap bedroom tax, scrap tuition fees etc etc

Cleggy was demolished when "making the case" for "the party of in". That is only the beginning. As UKIP gains popularity, they will increasingly set the agenda and the chums in Establishment parties will begin to wobble and follow the UKIP lead and have to adapt their policies in order to remain relevant with the public.

We are on the cusp of change, the chums are chewing their nails and UKIP has wind in its sails.

Correct Claig (in relation to UKIPs other policies).

doctor two I was also in favour of letting the banks fail (I worked for an investment bank at the time). Capitalism demanded it.

There are so many head-up-bum goldbug websites that make a living selling holding the stuff, who have been peddling stories for years to encourage buying - mainly (recently) as having told readers gold was going to $5,000 to $10,000 they look stupid when it peaked under $2,000 - and most of these stories to the wise falls flat at the get-go.

For nearly 20-years from 1980 when gold was falling from around $850 to $250 or so, they peddled government and city plots were to blame and even made up BoE quotes - and the best 'fact' was that Brown sold gold to help out the city that had a massive 'short' position.

The fact that a trending down (in price) market makes a 'short' position shed loads of money, eluded them.

Claig….more Ukip lies, having been around 20-years, they have no Uk domestic manifesto they currently stand on – flip flopping populist policies every week hardly makes the the second political coming.

www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-15/u-k-parties-prepare-for-2015-by-erasing-web-histories.html

“UKIP spokesman Michael Heaver confirmed that the party’s 2010 election manifesto had been removed (from their website). While the party now opposes the planned high-speed north-south rail line, the 2010 document advocated building three new routes. “We’re in the process of updating everything,” Heaver said by telephone. “We’re going through a policy review.”

news.sky.com/story/1200525/nigel-farage-disowns-ukip-manifesto-as-drivel
UKIP leader Nigel Farage has disowned the party's entire general election manifesto - which he helped launch - branding it "drivel”.

And I repeat my question to irionmaiden to you.
Ukip have one policy; to extract the UK from the EU, thus stopping EU immigration, but they cannot deliver it. TRUE or FALSE.

Who at Ukip is being truthful, Farage and you, or Janice Atkinson.

isitmebut. Are you a man? Sent by the Tories to smear UKIP? Just asking like…………...

isitmebut. I think you have missed the point, the only reason Mr. Slippery Cameron is willing to have a referendum in the first place on the EU is because of UKIP. UKIP started out wanting out of EU, but they have rightly sensed the dismay amongst the voting public, and will do well with other policies, other than exiting the EU, as Claig has pointed out.

isitmebut. Farage is a wonderful person, did you see him demolish the spineless jelly fish Clegg? Of whom they say is a 'man' and deputy Prime Minister, on TV recently? Shortly UKIP will be selling mops with Clegg's head on it, so we can 'all mop the floor' with him!
Onwards and upwards.

Ironmaiden….so three posts that say what, that the United Kingdom Independence Party ensured that The Conservatives (the only party that can/will do it) will offer the people the OPTION of exiting the EU, via a Referendum, and yet ‘I’m missing the point’?

Why have you not answered this question Ukip have one policy; to extract the UK from the EU, thus stopping EU immigration, but they cannot deliver it. TRUE or FALSE.

If as you clearly know that the answer is no, in being so proud of taking votes away from the Conservatives, WHO is missing the point, me or the United Kingdom Independence Party, whose only policy is to leave the EU????

How can anyone trust a party who knowingly refuses the people an option in carrying out the only policy they have, due to their own self serving political interests e.g. survival by not coming out of Europe?????

As IronMaiden appears to be elsewhere let me try to help you Ismebut.

UKIP originally was a single policy party with the sole aim of getting the UK out of the EU, however, while this objective is still paramount, in recent years UKIP has also developed a portfolio of international and domestic policies.
I can confirm this as I was at a meeting last week where the UKIP Deputy Leader explained some of their policies.

thus stopping EU immigration; but they cannot deliver it, true or false

Not quite. While the UK is a member of the EU the UK has no control over its borders and must admit any EU citizen who wishes to come to the UK. So no party is able to control EU immigration while the UK is a member of the EU and the EU insists on this 'open-door' policy.

What UKIP is saying is that in order to regain our right to control immigration from within the EU, we must leave the EU, as there is no option to stay in the EU and still curb EU immigration.

Therefore, in order to control EU immigration, the UK must leave the EU. But, leaving the EU does not mean an end to all immigration as the UK would welcome skilled workers from other countries, under a points system, similar to those systems operated by other countries, including Australia.

To be honest, everyone seems to be focusing on immigration and I can see why that' so attractive as it trys to paint UKIP as a racist party - something it is not.

The real reason that UKIP wants to leave the EU is their belief in the UK's right to self-determination without intereference from the a democratically deficit unelected EU Commision.
We have lost too many of our rights to the EU and we want to regain those rights.
You see, to some people , like Cleggy being in the EU means gaining very superficial things such as the EU recently reducing telephone roaming charges, while to others this pathetic gain is nothing compared to losing our right to govern ourselves.

But if you want to focus on immigration, carry on.

Hello WetAugust …I suspect poster IronMaiden has gone M.I.A. as knows better than to try and fob me off with political ‘smoke and mirrors’.

So I apologise if it seemed that I was focusing on Ukip’s original immigration stance as I know that they are far more politically astute nowadays, so let me FULLY take on your points and rephrase the question for YOU to answer;

Ukip have one policy; to extract the UK from the EU, but they cannot deliver it. TRUE or FALSE.

Maybe you’ll have a clearer answer to the second post on this link…if as an MEP Mr Farage enjoys an automatic £3,500 MEP allowance paid into his personal account each and every month for authorised ‘things’, based on his 10-years as an MEP from 1999 to 2009, where did the £2 million came from he claimed to have received in May 2009?????

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/in_the_news/2051828-EU-Election-22-05-14-assume-the-UK-will-stay-IN

Hi is beaut
Have just logged on so am not yet up to s peed on the financial data you mentioned in your post below. I will respond to that when I've acquainted myself with the issue. However, it is very convenient for the Tories to be questioning UKIP's expenses and thereby drawing fire away from Cameron's pathetic handling of his own mp's recent difficulties in that area. I did hear an Eu commissioner on the radio this morning who was totally unperturbed that the EU's own accounts have failed to be approved by auditors for many years , if ever, and who thought a system of checks and balances such as providing receipts was unnecessary.

Back to your original question. I said below and am now reiterating that the primary policy of UKIP is to leave the eu. It does have other foreign and domestic policies. as for whether UKIP can make the uk leave the eu well first it would ha be to have a w corking majority of mp's sufficient to enable UKIP to pass legislation to hold an in/out referendum, assuming the vote was for leaving then UKIP, as the govt, could pass the legislation that would enable the uk exit. So, no, as it stands at present UKIP cannot make the uk leave the eu. The Tories say they will have a referendum after a period if renegotiation, but renegotiation was tried and failed in the 70s. As far as I know, labour would not give the uk population a referendum and the liberals are pro-eu, although who knows what they believe in this week.

Hope this helps

WetAugust….further to the above question as your starter -for-ten, here is another one;

The Conservatives with a parliamentary majority in 2015, is the only political party that both CAN change British law on EU membership and are willing to offer ‘the people’ a straight IN/OUT referendum on the EU by 2017 - regardless of any EU treaty change exit option - opened to Labour/Lib Dem ‘interpretation’. True or False.

WetAugust….so based on your answer that Ukip would need a parliamentary majority of 326 seats (from their current zero) to begin changing British law to GUARATEE the extraction the UK out of the EU; would it be fair to say that only the Conservatives could offer the UK a choice by 2017 and that if waiting for Ukip to guarantee a UK withdrawal, it could take 2-3 parliaments from here e.g. the year 2025 onwards?

Moreover, would you agree with me that for the United Kingdom Independence Party to target not so bright Conservative votes, using the pretence Ukip could bring the UK out of the EU before the Conservatives it is as best disingenuous, but also questions the integrity of the Ukip party on it's main policy/namesake?

P.S. the 2017 EU referendum is not CONDITIONAL on Cameron's EU policy renegotiations, like on open borders other leaders have major concerns about; whatever he can achieve to make the EU work better for the UK will also be put to the people, but if the people say 'OUT', we leave.

Isitmebut. The Tories took us into Europe without a referendum. Why should we trust them now.

Agirlwithwings….back then it was called the E.E.C and it was about a ‘common market’, not a great big honking one currency, one central bank, federal superstate but thanks to the (split) Labour Party there was a referendum.
“1975: UK embraces Europe in referendum”
news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/6/newsid_2499000/2499297.stm

As a matter of supreme trust, one could ask why did Labour wanted a referendum back then on a loose trading agreement, yet now insists they don’t trust the people in agreeing with them, that our future lies being assimilated into a European superstate?

This country needs an open and informative pros/cons that comes before a referendum, and if properly presented to the people, they should be trusted to vote on the evidence - why do the parliamentary Labour Party no longer trust 'the people' they say they represent?

Ah, I see. In fact, the 'common market' always included 'free movement of labour' and Britain is not part of a single currency. The Tory party want to 'offer' a referendum now because of UKIP's popularity. Doesn't that show the power of UKIP.

Firstly prove to me that there was ‘free movement’ of labour within the original EEC framework, as I remember working with many Europeans back then who needed permits to work.

Next our EU membership issue has been divided the Conservatives for years, in fact many voters in 1997 cited a Tory EU split and bickering party as a major reason for voting for Blair. I mean, it was hardly for economic reasons; it had grown from the recession for 27ish straight quarters, we were paying off our debts and heading for a balanced budget by 2001..

Generally speaking it was always going to be an open sore for the next Tory government/P.M., especially for a pro original (EEC) EU party that had seen the EU morphed out of all recognition since 1997.

With that backdrop, of course Ukip stirred all things EU up on behalf of the country, but who could not say that the 2007/8 financial crisis that showed this EU ‘one size fits all’ was a cumbersome, ineffectual project that fell down on the first major crisis, wouldn’t have done that anyway?

If it makes you happy, I’d acknowledge that Ukip (and the Tory Euro-sceptics) has brought the matter to a head at this moment, but with the EU saying after the financial crash they need to move closer/standardise more things i.e. financial services, accounting and other important stuff, then it should have happened anyway.

So are you saying that we should vote Ukip in both the EU and General Election as thanks for past services, rather than the Conservatives for the CHOICE of leaving an ever further integrating EU - which is against everything Farage has stood for within a party that sez ‘Independence’ on it’s can?

If you want to talk about conditionality is erupt, I think you'll find that there are many actual conditions that must be met before Cameroon could offer that eu refereendum:firstly there is the small issue that the Tories would need to form the post election government in 2015, which is by no means certain. Then the Tories would have to get the big eu players, such as Germany, to agree the improvements the Tories wish to see -again, not something that will be easy to achieve, as merely has already pointed out. Only following negotiations would the question (and we don't even know what the question itself would be) could be put before the electorate in a referendum. The proposed changes if they are to be radical enough to satisfy the uk electorate would almost certainly require treaty change, which would take possibly years to achieve as each member state had yo individually ratify the treaty changes.

So 2017 looks rather ambitious, very uncertain and more the a little naive. You are right that UKIP will not gain any Westminster mp's, but it's popularity sill rattle those Tory mp's with very slim majorities, many of whom are also anti-eu and who may just grow some and start changing Tory policies with regard to the eu.

As for the EEC and what it did or did not permit in the way of residency rights - who actually cares. That's history. Heath knew what he was doing would lead to the EU when he got the uk admitted. Get just lied to the electorate. We'll the electorate are starting to realise that they are paying through the nose for an irritating useless organisation that us preventing the uk from fulfilling its global trading potential and is saying "enough"'

Right now, right here I bloody hope the Tories get in singularly.

But

I bloody hope the Labour Party sorts itself out, gets decent policies and a leader. (Hey try the brother you fecking fools) and wins after.

And then let history repeat.....