Conservatives must make a pact with Ukip, Lord Tebbit says

[claig]

Is it over?

"The Conservatives must make a seat-swapping "pact" with Ukip if they are to have a chance of winning the next election, a former party chairman has said."

...

" He said that Mr Farage had damaged the Conservatives' electoral prospects by winning over traditional Tories who feel they have been "abandoned" by David Cameron.

"It would help if we didn't abuse former Tory voters by attacking Ukip as nutters," he added.

The Conservatives, he said, were at risk of looking like jealous shopkeepers "shouting abuse" at former customers choosing to shop in a newly opened store."

...

"Lord Tebbit made his comments as a major study of Ukip suggests that it can mobilise its support it could attract up to 30 per cent of the vote.

The academic study, which analysed the views of 100,000 voters, said support for Ukip was driven not just by Euroscepticism, but also by 'hostility' to immigration and 'intense dissatisfaction' with the three main parties."

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10691683/Conservatives-must-make-a-pact-with-Ukip-Lord-Tebbit-says.html

Wise words by Lord Tebbit, but will Call Me Dive take note?

If this wise counsel is ignored, I fear it will require all of the Bullingdon bullshit, the Oxford old flannel and the PPE poppycock it is possible to muster in order to climb out of this hole.

The "revolt of the people" has begun and they can't stop it. They're tearing their hair out, they're going nuts, they know it's over and the people have won!

That's the trouble with FPTP though Spin, no prize for second place.

Lord Ashcroft has done some research into the Conservative 'universe'. There's an interesting article on it by Andrew Rawnsley. Basically it looks like the Conservatives are fucked in 2015.

"The Tory peer segments what he calls "the Conservative Universe" into four groups. There are those he labels the Loyalists, people who voted Tory in 2010 and would do so again in an election tomorrow. There are the Joiners, people who did not vote Tory last time but say they probably will do next time. There are the Defectors, people who voted Tory last time but say they will not do so next time. Finally, there is a group called the Considerers. These are people who didn't vote Tory last time and wouldn't do so tomorrow, but might be lured over by David Cameron because they don't rule out supporting the Conservatives in the future.

The contrasting sizes of these groups tells its own story. By far the biggest of them – just over a third at 37% – are the Defectors . Those who have deserted the Conservatives since the last election are considerably more numerous than those who have stuck with or been attracted by the party. The number of Joiners is 6%. The Considerers are smaller still at just 3%. In short, the numbers moving into the Tory column don't come near to compensating for those leaving it. As Lord Ashcroft correctly concludes, to have any hope of winning a parliamentary majority, the Tories must keep all the Loyalists and Joiners, convince all the Considerers and win back all of the many Defectors."

Over half of the defectors have gone to UKIP (less than 20% have gone to Labour or the LibDems). The Tories need to win back all those who voted for them in 2010 + all the Defectors + all the Joiners + all the Considerers in order to win.

I can see why a pact might be attractive but I can also see that it would repel a number of voters. For that reason I don't think they'd go for it.

IsItMe, I don't think Clegg would claim that. AFAIK membership of the EU wasn't in the LibDem or Labour manifestos so he can't really claim a mandate to remain within the EU.

The latest data I've seen (from YouGov, am BFing at the moment so impossible to C+P) puts the 'ins' at 39% and the 'outs' at 41%.

'The Tories need to win back all those who voted for them in 2010 + all the Defectors + all the Joiners + all the Considerers in order to win.'

Blimey, and this is without considering how many more are likely to defect to UKIP after the results of the May Euro elections. If it carries on like this, Lord Ashcroft will probably join the Defectors and turn the lights out.

Who can blame him? The lifeboats have already been launched, why go down with the ship?

Claig….so much has happened, so many word spoken, yet you keep repeating the same ‘Conservatives will defect to Ukip’ claptrap.

Lord Ashcroft may vote Conservative, but if memory serves, as of around this time last year, he is no longer an ‘insider’, as he could not cope with coalition policies more Lib Dem than traditional Conservative e.g. gay marriage – so all the polls etc he is conducting, is trying to prove he is right, rather than be ‘constructive’.

No worries, if fools like that wants to let in Labour rather than allow gay people to be happy, then on a ‘cut wealthy nose, to spite a blue face’ strategy, so be it - as all will pay SOME taxes or own A high priced UK home that will plummet in value.

Seriously though you need to keep up; as I’ve alluded to on several posts now, by Miliband not allowing an EU Referendum, the voter bun fight is between Labour and Ukip. Labour appears to believe their votes are firm WITHOUT a vote, while Ukip knowing by taking votes from the Conservative it is counterproductive to an EU Referendum well into the 2020’s, see their main gains from the Labour Party.

So WHERE did the so called Tory defectors go, as according to your glorious leader Farage yesterday, it is not Ukip – yet the Tory voters who supported Ukips tougher rhetoric on the EU, are likely to come back AS UKIP CANNOT BRING THE UK OUT OF THE EU, whereas a Conservative referendum gives the people the option.

'New UKIP' will take votes from Labour, says Nigel Farage

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26602101

"Mr Farage suggested that Labour leader Ed Miliband had made an error by pledging to hold an in/out referendum on UK membership of the EU only if a further transfer of power from Westminster to Brussels was on the table."

In practice, this would mean that an EU referendum in the next parliament was unlikely, Mr Miliband has said.

"What the Labour Party has done this week with Miliband's speech is to open up a huge flank to us, and that's what we're going to go for," Mr Farage said.

It was wrong to believe that UKIP took votes only from the Conservatives, he said.

"Most of our voters are coming to us from Labour, some from the Lib Dems, and a lot are non-voters.

"Two thirds of our voters would never vote Conservative anyway."

Did you miss the bit from Ashcroft's poll that said Over half of the defectors have gone to UKIP (less than 20% have gone to Labour or the LibDems)?

Not really sir, but the poll from a clearly dodgy source (lol) was done in January, that nice Mr Farage should know his own non BNP members, the irrelevance of Ukip was in mid March when, thanks to Mr Miliband it should have become clear to the thickest of Ukip voters that the Conservatives are THE ONLY option for an EU referendum – and one has to remember that less than 66% of the people voted in the 2010 General Election – and come 2015 the economy will look a lot different than under Labour in 2010.

However as I’ve said elsewhere numerous times, thanks to Labour’s deceit in 2010 not outlining THEIR cuts/spending/new tax hike plans, the Labour electoral advantage due to boundary lines and nearly 1 million new non EU migrant workers, I still agree with the findings – so in your words, come 2015 the Conservatives are ‘Donald Ducked’, or something like that.

Clearly the Ashcroft’s in the Conservatives want pre election blue blooded Tory style tax cuts, or spending splurges like Labour did 4-months prior to the 2010 election for votes, but in my view, like a deficit reducing Ken Clark in 1997, you do what is right for the country, not splurge to try and save your sorry political party ar$es.

But we’ll see this week and the same time next year.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/19/labour-government-spending-spree

Not really sir, but the poll from a clearly dodgy source (lol) was done in January,

Oh, has a lot changed since January? I'd be very interested to hear your in-depth analysis and evaluation of the polling methodology used by Ashcroft/KPMG. It looked fine to me.

...that nice Mr Farage should know his own non BNP members

What?

... the irrelevance of Ukip was in mid March when, thanks to Mr Miliband it should have become clear to the thickest of Ukip voters that the Conservatives are THE ONLY option for an EU referendum

Why do you assume the Conservative Party are losing voters to UKIP because of their policy on the European Union? Perhaps they're disgusted by their record in government.

TBH, I think Labour could play the referendum pledge to their advantage. It could be a useful way of reminding voters of the huge split in the Conservative Party. You could make Cameron look very weak if you point out that he wants to stay in the EU but he's not a strong enough a leader to carry his party with him. A referendum was the only way he could appease his MPs.

... – and one has to remember that less than 66% of the people voted in the 2010 General Election – and come 2015 the economy will look a lot different than under Labour in 2010

Turnout will be low in 2015. The economy will play a part but it's not the only thing to consider. I'd imagine many voters will also examine the electoral pledges in 2010 and how well the Tories have stuck to them.

However as I’ve said elsewhere numerous times, thanks to Labour’s deceit in 2010 not outlining THEIR cuts/spending/new tax hike plans, the Labour electoral advantage due to boundary lines and nearly 1 million new non EU migrant workers, I still agree with the findings – so in your words, come 2015 the Conservatives are ‘Donald Ducked’, or something like that

They're fucked because people don't support them in big enough numbers to win a parliamentary majority. If Cameron couldn't win a majority in 2010 running against the most unpopular PM ever I doubt he'll manage it in 2015.

Clearly the Ashcroft’s in the Conservatives want pre election blue blooded Tory style tax cuts, or spending splurges like Labour did 4-months prior to the 2010 election for votes, but in my view, like a deficit reducing Ken Clark in 1997, you do what is right for the country, not splurge to try and save your sorry political party ar$es

"But we’ll see this week and the same time next year"

Yes, I suppose we will.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/19/labour-government-spending-spree

Wise words from the man who assaulted a young Chinese lad taking part in a legitimate Chinese New Year charity event near his home? Nasty racist old dinosaur. The only reason he wasn't arrested and charged was because the business owner sponsoring the event was the bigger person and the Police were swayed by the 'celebrity'.

The wisdom of a man who is too dumb to realise that when you buy a house in a business district / town centre, you might have to live with civic events?

It suits Tebbit just fine to ally himself with UKIP - nasty racist old man.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1253066/Norman-Tebbit-attacks-child-dressed-dragon-Chinese-New-Year.html

I never heard about that. It sounds like yobbish behaviour. I am surprised it wasn't treated as some kind of assault. It doesn't sound racist, but more like he flipped and felt he was entitled to stop the noise. Totally out of order.

He made comments that weren't what I would call enlightened. They weren't reported.

It was a very nasty incident and most people in the town (decent people) were incredulous that he wasn't arrested and charged. We would have been had we acted in this manner.

I didn't know that. He sounds off his rocker. Yes, I think any of us would have been charged.

What time of day or night was it? Who runs 100 yards and then sees a dragon and doesn't realise that it is a celebration?

Maybe he sees himself as a modern day St George?

His explanation was all hogwash. The festival takes place during the afternoon and early evening and the restaurant owner is one of the local philanthropists.

Tebbit is just vile and he should be deeply ashamed of himself, even now.

I am surprised it wasn't headline news. I don't remember hearing about it. Usually, the BBC or Guardian would put a Tory doing this at the top of the news agenda, but I never heard about it, so that is very surprising.

'The festival takes place during the afternoon and early evening'

I thought so. Totally out of order. It makes sense that it was early as a child was the rear part of the dragon, so it wasn't 1 am or anything.

No it wasn't that late. Yes it got little coverage.

"No worries, if fools like that wants to let in Labour rather than allow gay people to be happy, then on a ‘cut wealthy nose, to spite a blue face’ strategy"

The gay marriage issue is one that upset a lot of conservatives. Looking back it upsets me too, though I didn't give a sod either way at the time.

The media certainly painted the story as an example of mass homophobia, as did the government and every talking head.

So why do I only now give a damn, when it fell off the radar quite some time ago? Simply put I re-read Magna Carta.

The first paragraph, and therefore one would imagine the most important, deals with the freedom of the Church.

"FIRST, We have granted to God, and by this our present Charter have confirmed, for Us and our Heirs for ever, that the Church of England shall be free, and shall have all her whole Rights and Liberties inviolable. We have granted also, and given to all the Freemen of our Realm, for Us and our Heirs for ever, these Liberties under-written, to have and to hold to them and their Heirs, of Us and our Heirs for ever."

Find me a lawyer that could squirrel out of that...

But they did, and the fact is that the Church of England rejected gay marriage, for whatever their own reasons were ( I think Hitchens wrote at length about it).

So was it mass homophobia or something deeper? A sense that something was wrong and against our constitution even if the opposition was either ill judged, ill reasoned or ill represented?

Habeus corpus, equality under the law and even the right to be judged by your peers all went the way of the dodo under new labour, as did a great many sections and clauses when last labour had a large majority in the late 60s.

But it was the tories who put the last nail in the coffin. I suspect the anger was justified, even if possibly for the wrong reasons, or more likely I think for reasons felt but not rationalised.

TheHammaconda….first of all, wasn’t Ashcroft’s ‘sampling’ (which apparently is large by sampling standards) of 8,000 people who voted Conservative in 2010, from 10.7 million of people who voted Conservative in 2010 – if so gauging sentiment both then and after Miliband’s March EU ‘no referendum’ re defectors to say, Ukip, nothing can go wrong there then. Not.

Ukip had how many votes in the 2010 General Election, around 920,000, and Farage himself has just said that ‘MOST of our voters are coming from Labour’ and ‘two thirds of our voters would never vote Conservative anyway’, so whether looking at past, or future Conservatives voting Ukip, to my mind neither the logic or numbers add up.

So as Ukip currently does not have any other policies to ‘sample’ and no Conservative voter I’ve ever met has voted for the Labour Party other than in 1997, when they thought (to their error) that the days of Old Labour crashing the economy was over – and many of those unhappy with liberal policies adopted by Cameron that were INFLUENCED by a coalition with the Lib Dems are unlikely to vote for Mr Clegg - I’m unsure where 2010 Conservative voters in 2015 CAN defect to.

Your Labour EU ‘no referendum’ strategy to split the Conservatives, rather than do what is right for the country MAY be the cunning plan, Labour/Brown have form there, but at the end of the day it matters not what Cameron wants, when THE PEOPLE ARE ALLOWED TO VOTE and that vote is binding.

As to Cameron not winning a majority in 2010, due to another right wing party in a major recession making promises to the electorate on the EU/immigration they could never keep - apparently over key constituencies it was a pretty close thing.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/7693877/General-Election-2010-Ukip-challenge-cost-Tories-a-Commons-majority.html

But come the 2015 General Election Labour has ensured it won’t be a fair fight, as the Conservatives need to be several percent IN THE POLLS LEAD to get a decent majority over Labour, thanks to the boundaries and other little ‘mines’ Labour left.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10268870/Million-foreign-voters-could-sway-result-of-next-general-election-warns-report.html

Referenda aren't binding

Sorry Hammaconda, I accept my comprehensive school GCSE English means other people speak much better English ‘than what I do’, but I’m not sure how many more ways I can express the first few paragraphs.

In 2010 where under 2/3rds voted, there were various influences on the election that IMO with time/clarity will not be as relevant in 2015; the then worst recession in 80-years, we were then not allowed to see the government of the days cuts/spending/ extra tax plans when voters will demand costed plans from all parties in 2015, the then ‘do we trust the Conservatives’ when under Brown we had a ‘Money Tree’ we were told is still bearing endless fruit, the then Clegg TV debate factor, the acceptance that a coalition was both inevitable and politically balanced welcome, when the next one is likely to be 100% socialist - and another right wing political party gaining traction/votes, ALL then influencing the electorate.

The majority of those uncertainties have now been clarified, including the relevance of Ukip in EU policies two months after the Ashcroft poll.

Furthermore if Mr Ashcroft’s poll is 8,000 out of 10.7 million voters when many of them (and maybe the 1/3rd who did not vote in 2010) make their mind up on the day on whom they trust in a growing economy, often flying in the face of many much larger polls in the months before – personally I would be more interested in his NEXT one, closer to may 2015.

No, sorry IsItMe, that was rude of me. I've reported my post and asked for MNHQ to delete it.

Seriously don't worry about it, I can more than look after myself on a board.

if the dropping of the 'c-bomb' on my head had little effect, a Conservative subjected to class/education snobbery, is actually quite amusing.