ttosca…..firstly I don’t care about YOUR report from whoever it is, I’m using the OECD’s report which will have far more credibility.
Next only in your world does an incompetent governments policies, means that the Private Sector has to pay more in salaries to compensate for that incompetence – and that there will not be any knock on affect e.g LESS rather than more jobs coming out of a recession.
You allude to (and I have shown you this in other threads) what is known as ‘The Automatic Stabalisers’, where the State benefit payments in high growth economies falls, but in a recessions it increases as more of the population – THE PROBLEM UNDER LABOUR WAS DUE TO ECONOMIC/IMMIGRATION/TAXATION/NATIONAL DEBT IMBALANCES OF THEIR MAKING, so structural reforms were not made in those good times and the costs in benefits never fell.
www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/automatic-stabilisers/
• High Growth– In a period of high economic growth, automatic stabilizers will help to reduce the growth rate. With higher growth, the government will receive more tax revenues – people earn more and so pay more income tax (note the tax rate doesn’t change, the amount received just becomes higher). With higher growth, there will also be a fall in unemployment so the government will spend less on unemployment benefits
• Recession. In a recession, economic growth becomes negative. However, automatic stabilisers will help to limit the fall in growth. With lower incomes people pay less tax, and government spending on unemployment benefits will increase. This increase in benefit spending and lower tax helps to limit the fall in aggregate demand.
Do you not see, this was no normal high growth to recession economic cycle, as when did we last see the following?
Labour’s unannounced immigration policy ENSURED higher domestic unemployment rate, a compression of lower skilled pay rates and due to supply and demand put up mortgage/rent costs, THROUGH the high growth period.
Labour had the option of LOWERING the dependency of ‘in work’ benefits by taking the increased tax receipts from the ‘high growth’ economy and permanently LOWERING the taxes of the lower paid - and with a UK inflation rate higher than other countries and eating into their food bills, REDUCE the cost of government e.g. Council Tax.
www.taxpayersalliance.com/economics/2009/09/new-book-reveals-the-total-cost-of-gordon-browns-mishandling-of-the-economy-as-3-trillion-or-3000000.html
But Brown did none of those things, HENCE our benefits bills were rising when they should have been falling, the effects of immigrations are still being felt in domestic unemployment rates, compressed salaries, and higher housing costs – and the big fat State he chose to spend the money on instead e.g. 1 million more Public Sector employees in 2010 than 1997, are in the main still around and costing the economy a small fortune.
So this ‘unbalanced’ economy, relying far too much on taxes from City profit, in GDP terms our economic output shrunk an unprecedented 7% in several months from back in 2008, more than any other G7 country - decimating tax receipts to help pay for the unreformed State spending on services, the new public sector employees we didn’t seem to need in 1997 and a benefit dependency that SHOULD have been addressed during our period of high growth.
Now tell me WHICH of these key points you disagree with as the structural CAUSE of the current welfare/benefits problem, before the Coalition was handed this mess - and why the private Sector reeling from the recession should try to keep paying more to compensate for incompetent governments not doing what was right at the time?