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Politics

So, no share of national debt for an independent Scotland then..

117 replies

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 12/02/2014 09:20

Uk treasury has recently announced that it will guarantee the entire debt in the event of independence.

Osborne is to definitively announce there will be no monetary union (or will he?)

Scottish Government has already pointed out that if the UK takes this position there would be no reason for them to take on a share of the national debt.

But surely Osborne et al are cutting off their noses to spite their faces? Just one example - rUK gets loads of oil/gas from Scotland, surely they would have to pay more if it were in a different currency?

OP posts:
motherstongue · 17/02/2014 00:59

I don't pretend to know a great deal about politics but my tuppence worth is this:

I don't think that the three Westminster parties uniting with regards the pound will make lots of Scots run towards the Yes Campaign. I think it will have the opposite effect, in fact, as it makes Salmond et al look like a bunch of amateurs. All of the fiscal arrangements, monetary policies etc should all have been worked out (my God, the Nationalists have been wanting this for years) before we even got to the stage of setting a date. It is a complete bloody farce in my view and just makes the Scots look like toddlers having a strop everytime things don't go our way.

Isitmebut · 17/02/2014 10:39

Westminster says NO Sterling, Salmond says YES.

The EU says NO Euro, Salmond says YES.

If Scotland says NO, god help Scottish democracy and all that has to listen within.

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 17/02/2014 14:11

Absolutely agree Carney was neutral, he said BoE would make it work. Don't have a problem giving up a little sovereignty in a currency union, atm we have none so giving up "some" actually puts us in a stronger position, and it's worth it for the convenience/less hassle/cost for business both sides of the border. But y'know, no currency union, no debt...

EU president may have no interest in UK politics, but there is the Catalan issue... We are net contributors to the EU and they won't want to lose 5 million citizens living in a country which is already fully EU-compliant. And Spain won't want to lose access to our fishing grounds, so however much he grumbles, that's all it is. And he's out of office come September anyway.

As for the three unionist parties agreeing re the £, they have already sent many, many Scots towards a yes vote. There's not much in MSM, but alt media is full of Scots saying, "I was going to vote no, but now I'm voting yes" - and Labour supporters are particularly pissed off that they've been sold out. It's being seen as WM uniting against Scots, and NuLab will have a job to do to restore their reputation after indy.

Salmond does not say yes to euro, because that's not possible.

SantanaLopez · 17/02/2014 16:08

no currency union, no debt

No assets and a terrible international reputation too, don't forget.

they won't want to lose 5 million citizens living in a country which is already fully EU-compliant.

The EU compromises 500million (slightly over, I believe). 5 million is a drop in the ocean.

As for the three unionist parties agreeing re the £, they have already sent many, many Scots towards a yes vote.

I genuinely don't understand this. It's so childish and petulant.

SantanaLopez · 17/02/2014 16:08

Damn, bold fail.

they won't want to lose 5 million citizens living in a country which is already fully EU-compliant.

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 17/02/2014 16:22

Of course we have assets, there are more assets than just BoE, stuff we've already paid for over 300 years of union, as well as our oil, gas, whisky etc. We have a balance of payments surplus, why would we have a terrible reputation?

5 mill may be a drop in the ocean, but it's a drop that pays in more than it takes out.

And yes, maybe it's childish and petulant, but it's also true.

ElBurroSinNombre · 17/02/2014 16:37

A currency union could work if the political systems of both countries are moving towards convergence (this is what the Euro is based upon). Salmond wants a currency union whilst moving in the opposite direction.

Personally I don't care very much what Scotland does. They are a small country whose presence or absence will not make very much difference to the rest of the UK. But independence actually means independence - the rest of the UK will make decisions in the interest of the UK regardless of Scotlands desires or interests. The same with the EU. The Salmond speech today was pretty lame, an attempt to personalise a very serious hole in the yes vote's campaign. To have no plan B for the currency or EU problems is amateurish to say the least.

bideyinn · 17/02/2014 16:41

This thread reads like the Better Together campaign, terrible statements about what will befall Scotland if we don't decide to do what the rest of the UK purportedly wants. Actually we are as entitled to the pound as the rest of the UK, we already are part of the EU and (I don't think they'll want to let us go) and we pay in more than we take out financially. The No campaign is full of negativities, I don't hear anything about the postives of staying in the UK, it's all threats.

Isitmebut · 17/02/2014 16:42

The BoE is always seen to be politically neutral in England, there is no reason to believe Carney would be anything else to the UK’s Scotland – but few would believe that a BoE governor just given sole responsibility for watching UK financial bubbles, with the tools given to fix them, would look forward to monitoring an independent Scotland’s influence on Sterling.

‘No debt’, penal domestic interest rates, as being seen to the international capital markets as a dodgy credit who might walk away from its obligations, you’d pay much higher interest rates to borrow money from outside Scotland - as a government looking for cyclical deficit sending, as a Scottish bank in the interbank markets and therefore as individuals, for daily needs.

In trade what would be a stronger English pound to a Scottish pound, Scotland would no longer be such an important market for the England as our goods and services would become too expensive for you (potentially raising domestic Scottish inflation) and like any period of currency volatility, we’d have to find new markets.

You on the other hand, trying to find your independence feet, would have to rely on England buying your goods when totally peed off with you for (trying to) renege on your debt. I can see the Sun, Mirror, Mail et all mounting national campaigns to boycott Scottish goods. Silly, maybe, but so is denial, we are not asking you to leave, vote how you will because WE are now getting mightily hissed off listening to Scottish threats.

You needed the facts before you voted, I’m sorry the SNP don’t like that, and stage managing a Westminster plot helps no one, but do your worst as its . IMO.

ElBurroSinNombre · 17/02/2014 16:44

Bideyinn - the fact is that you are not 'entitled' to be in the pound as an independent Scotlad - that is just a fact. And an independent Scotland is not already a part of the EU - that is also a fact. Pointing these facts out is not an attempt to make Scotland stay (not for me in any case) - I don't actually care. But they are the facts which Salmond and co must address to be taken seriously.

bideyinn · 17/02/2014 16:51

But why is that a fact? The assets will have to broken up if we decide to leave, just as we'll take a share of debt. A sterling zone makes sense and has been done before without problem. The EU will not want to lose all the fishing areas around Scotland at the very least. I'm puzzled as to why the UK govt wants us to stay as we're such a drain :)

SantanaLopez · 17/02/2014 17:03

Of course we have assets, there are more assets than just BoE, stuff we've already paid for over 300 years of union, as well as our oil, gas, whisky etc. We have a balance of payments surplus, why would we have a terrible reputation?

Secession tends to be accompanied by the sharing of debts and assets. If Scotland doesn't take up the debts, they don't get the assets. This would reflect badly on Scotland on the international stage, particularly re credit scores. The interest on any loans made to Scotland would be huge. rUK would probably also be more likely to use their EU veto.

Actually we are as entitled to the pound as the rest of the UK,
No you are not. Sterling is an institution, the gold reserves backing it are the assets. Assets should be shared, institutions cannot.

we already are part of the EU and (I don't think they'll want to let us go)
By voting for independence you take yourself out of the EU.

We pay in more than we take out financially.
False.

Scotland has 8.4 per cent of the UK's total population
Scotland generates 9.4 percent of its annual tax revenues.

Now look at the Public Expenditure Statistics.

Scots get an average of £10,212 per person spent on them every year.
English folk get £8,588.

That's £1,624 less than the Scottish person.
= a heavy subsidy for Scotland.

Plus Scotland is running, like all countries, at a deficit.

SantanaLopez · 17/02/2014 17:05

The assets will have to broken up if we decide to leave

The currency is not an asset.

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 17/02/2014 17:21

How could an English £, in a massively indebted rUK, be worth more than an indy Scottish £, backed by our natural resources? Scotland does not run at a deficit, we'd be in profit from day one, and we cannot renege on a debt we don't owe.

SantanaLopez · 17/02/2014 17:30

London has never defaulted. Everyone knows this, and its reputation is still strong. iScotland has no reputation to fall back on.

What do you mean by an indy Scottish £? If you mean using the pound regardless, no central bank in the world will underwrite a currency for a country which doesn't control that currency.

Scotland does not run at a deficit
Figures please?

we'd be in profit from day one,
Not with no assets.

we cannot renege on a debt we don't owe.
It's not quite as simple as that.

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 17/02/2014 17:37

£ is presently a petrocurrency. If no currency union, it won't be a petrocurrency any more, even if we keep using it.

And do stop with the "no assets" nonsense, it simply isn't true.

BackOnlyBriefly · 17/02/2014 17:45

How about if England, Wales, and Northern Ireland declare independence and become a new country and leave Scotland with the debt.

Works for me.

SantanaLopez · 17/02/2014 17:45

And do stop with the "no assets" nonsense, it simply isn't true.

Prove it.

SantanaLopez · 17/02/2014 17:51

No neutral examples? Just YeSNP propaganda?

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 17/02/2014 17:53

mobile.twitter.com/AssetScotland?p=s

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 17/02/2014 17:53

Have you read the linked articles, and their links?

SantanaLopez · 17/02/2014 17:55

Y'know, random twitter accounts really aren't the best thing to support an argument.

SantanaLopez · 17/02/2014 17:56

Business for Scotland is a major and active part of the Yes Campaign, you'll forgive me if I take it with a pinch of salt.

SantanaLopez · 17/02/2014 18:01

'But we have always said, and I will say again here very openly, I that Scotland should meet a fair share of the costs of servicing that debt. But assets and liabilities go hand in hand.'

from a Ms. N. Sturgeon...

www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/12/uk-parties-bully-rejecting-scottish-independence-snp-currency-union

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