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Original poster

Would an independent Scotland go same way as Ireland and Iceland?

130 replies

inkyfingers · 08/05/2011 20:10

No one's saying whether Scotland can afford to be out of the Union. I know those 2 countries have had huge ££ problems already, but the UK gov owns RBS and Scots would have to buy it back? Is North Sea oil going to be a big enough wealth creator? Most small EU countries are struggling ATM.

OP posts:

AitchTwoOh · 09/05/2011 12:44

a few terms at fettes doesn't make him a jock... AND he is a bigger cunt than brown, fo sho, which must mean that the english are all cunts etc. to use some of the logic that is being applied here.

prettybird · 09/05/2011 12:44

Without the revenues from the North Sea oil (even without debating who it "belongs" to), the UK could have gone under in the recent crisis.

wonders whether that is why the Unionists want to keep Scotland in the fold?

AitchTwoOh · 09/05/2011 12:46

earthworm, sorry, can you point out where i said that scotland would never again experience an unexpected financial shock?

and you are plumb wrong about the brand, of course you are. that ireland also has a strong brand (albeit a little tired right now) does not disprove my point.

prettybird · 09/05/2011 12:47

Blair did once try to claim that he was Scottish but then he did also claim that his greatest sporting moment was the 1966 World Cup

earthworm · 09/05/2011 12:53

'while i agree that salmond might have walked us into a pile of celtic tiger poo back in the day, that won't happen now'

It was this phrase that I was referring to Aitch. I took this to mean that the celtic tiger bubble couldn't happen again?

AitchTwoOh · 09/05/2011 12:58

no, because there is no celtic tiger poo to walk into, those days are gone, but we would absolutely have been caught in it had we been independent at the time.

at no point did i say there would 'NEVER AGAIN experience an unexpected financial shock', and tbh i am pissed off with you for suggesting it. although the celtic tiger bubble bursting wasn't entirely unexpected, people had been warning about it for years. no-one wanted to hear it, that was the difficulty.

earthworm · 09/05/2011 13:05

Blimey, I think you are determined to take offence.

I merely point out that 'that won't happen again' sounds touchingly naive, and remarkably similar to 'never again' (but I admit to paraphrasing).

The 'celtic tiger poo' days are gone, but something similar will be along at some point in the future and Scotland maybe needs to consider how the country will respond when it does.

prettybird · 09/05/2011 13:12

In February/March 2008 (ie more than 6 months before the crisis fully hit), some economists wrote a detailed paper (can't find it now but I'll keep trying) which said that there were 3 countries that were at severe risk from being over-levered because of banking activities. One of those was Iceland; the other two were...

...... The UK and Switzerland, both of which were too critical to the world economy (and confidence in the banking system) to let go under.

The same paper also talked about Portugal, Ireland and Greece being at risk......

TheBride · 09/05/2011 13:13

Interestingly, we're at a point where it is in both the British and Scottish government's interests to get Scottish independence. The time is now.

Scotland: because that's what the SNP is about
England: because the Tories would have an easier time without all those Labour/SNP constituencies north of the border.

Therefore, it's in Cameron's interests to cut a reasonably sweet deal for the Scots and persuade them to vote yes. A Labour government I'm sure would do all it could to discourage devolution (or it should do, rationally)

AitchTwoOh · 09/05/2011 13:17

more mis-quoting.

what i actually wrote, to wit 'that won't happen now', does NOT equal either 'that won't happen again' or that will 'never happen again'.

why don't we stick to talking about what i actually said, eh?

AitchTwoOh · 09/05/2011 13:19

interesting about switzerland, pb, what have the repercussions been there? doesn't seem to have harmed the zurich lifestyle...

Wordwork · 09/05/2011 13:19

I god I forgot that Scottish indepencence would make life easier for tories in the UK. I had been thinking that it would be just as fine and dandy being sister-nations under the EU, rather than under the UK, if that was what scotland wanted. But the prospect of an eternally tory rump uk is very scary, so if you could bring yourself to stay, scotland, I would be very grateful.

TheBride · 09/05/2011 13:25

Sorry to burst your bubble wordwork. I guess Salmond must be quite nervous, because he needs to wait for pro-independence opinion to rise, but he needs to do it before the next GE or he's screwed.

Anyway, the current situation is farcical. Complete devolution is the only way IMO (unless we go back to how it was)

earthworm · 09/05/2011 13:25

All three phrases sound exactly the same to me. Perhaps you need to make your point a bit clearer?

What did you mean by 'that won't happen now' then?

AitchTwoOh · 09/05/2011 13:32

the celtic tiger bubble burst so we can't get involved in that now, because it doesn't exist. you must run into a lot of difficulties if you can't tell the different between an action in the present and one in the future.

don't eat that now...
don't eat that again...
never eat that again...

quite different.

earthworm · 09/05/2011 13:37

Yes, yes, very patronising, but what did you mean by this then :

'while i agree that salmond might have walked us into a pile of celtic tiger poo back in the day, that won't happen now'.

earthworm · 09/05/2011 13:38

Because surely, surely you didn't mean 'that won't happen now, right this minute, right this second, while we are both sitting here on mn'?

Because that would be bonkers wouldn't it?

prettybird · 09/05/2011 13:39

Aitch : still can't find the report but did find this about Switzerland.

TheBride · 09/05/2011 13:42

OP The RBS thing you mention is a bit of a red herring. RBS didn't belong to Scotland before it was nationalised during the financial crisis. Neither did HBOS. They belonged to the shareholders, most of whom weren't Scottish anyway. The issue going forward is more likely to be where RBS/HBOS will be registered for tax purposes.

At the moment companies are registered as UK companies, but that would have to change.

AitchTwoOh · 09/05/2011 13:46

look, earthworm, it won't happen now because there is no celtic tiger, so it is not something worth thinking about. celtic tiger - poof! gone.

can i remind you that from this simple and perfectly clear comment you extrapolated that i said that scotland would never again experience a financial shock? that was quite some paraphrase.

AitchTwoOh · 09/05/2011 13:47

yes, prof hughes hallett touched on that in the interview i linked to.

"Scottish revenues and banks
Prof Hughes Hallett pointed to ?missing? income that is generated in Scotland but is actually attributed to London, giving the Crown Estate as an example saying: ?The Crown agents who take fees for electricity generation and give it to the Treasury...?

Professor Hughes Hallett also destroyed one of the myths surrounding the bail out of HBOS and RBS claiming that their dealings in England would have meant that England would have shouldered a significant part of their liabilities.

Professor Hughes Hallet said:
?They [HBOS and RBS] have substantial activities in England as well as elsewhere and therefore the burden of bailing them out would have to have been shared in any case.

?And there are plenty of precedents for that. The Dutch-French banks and the Belgium-French Banks that went bankrupt had to be bailed out jointly by the responsible authorities, and so it would have been shared.?

Professor Hughes Hallett?s experience has covered many areas and range from international economic policy to financial market stabilisation. Apart from a wide range of academic posts with Princeton, St. Andrews and other universities around the world he has also acted as a consultant to the IMF, World Bank, Federal Reserve, UN, European Central Bank, UNESCO, OECD, numerous central banks, governments and other organisations."

earthworm · 09/05/2011 13:57

So your comment was that Alex Salmond might have walked us into a pile of tiger poo back in the day, but that won't happen now because there is no longer a celtic tiger?

Really? Talk about stating the bleeding obvious.

I credited you with more intelligence when I paraphrased, apologies.

AitchTwoOh · 09/05/2011 14:11

well, it demonstrates that your original point was completely redundant because there is no celtic tiger, but i see now that you enjoy the sound of your own voice so much that it matters not what you are saying, or how relevant, timely and accurate.

AitchTwoOh · 09/05/2011 14:15

actually i have gone back and checked, here is your original comment. "I think that Scotland would have gone the way of Ireland and Iceland if the country had been independent at the time of the downturn."

i see my mistake was in not having said "Really? Talk about stating the bleeding obvious'.

catinthehat2 · 09/05/2011 14:44

CHILLAAAAXXXXXX

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