Would an independent Scotland go same way as Ireland and Iceland?

[inkyfingers]

No one's saying whether Scotland can afford to be out of the Union. I know those 2 countries have had huge ££ problems already, but the UK gov owns RBS and Scots would have to buy it back? Is North Sea oil going to be a big enough wealth creator? Most small EU countries are struggling ATM.

can it happen without the agreement of parliament?

Probably not but if the vote was in favour it would be hard to say no to the Jocks.

Czechoslovakia did it without much difficulty

I've actually google the "procedure" but not that hard didn't find much.

We could be in for an interesting time -- still think they'll be afeard.

Do you mean the Parliament at Westminster?

As far as I know, the constitution is a reserved matter. The people of Scotland could say yes to independence but I think it would be for Westminster to agree?

Beta - thanks for the detail.

i do find the 'sentimental tory' line highly dubious, tbh. they don't give a shitty shite about the scots, other than as beaters for their grouse shooting.

there was a study last year at harvard that demonstrated that if you take into account vat, road tax etc as well as oil, we put slightly more into the crown than we take out.

i tell you what would be great for salmond, though, is if more english mners make their voices heard on this issue. because you are turning me from a 'don't know' into a 'let's do it' every time i see your posts. or are you actually snp trolls?

If they have any sense the North of England will ask to become part of Scotland. :)

I'm scottish and I'd vote yes for independence... I'd like to see how we manage on our own. I'm proud of scotland and I'd like to think we'd flourish under our own steam. (Im far too sentimental about a country I know!)

I read some snippets from a study that was done in the 70's...

"A report written by the Scottish Office economist Gavin McCrone for ministers in 1974 indicated that with ownership of North Sea oil, an independent Scotland would have "embarrassingly" large tax surpluses. The report also stated that the economy of an independent Scotland, with control over the majority of UK North Sea oil revenue, would have one of the "hardest" currencies in Europe and that "for the first time since the Act Of Union was passed, it can now be credibly argued that Scotland's economic advantage lies in its repeal."

I would have loved to have lived in that kind of scotland

kw1986...let's hope we dont have to wait too much longer! I am already planning my independence party!!

I kind of get annoyed that the arguement for or against independence always gets reduced to an economic one.

I'd quite happily pay to have an independent country. Money does motivate and influence people but I think ideology can be much more powerful if channelled correctly.

My sentiments as well.

here is that report i have been talking about, not Harvard, i mis-remembered, it's George Mason Uni, Washington, and St Andrews.
www.newsnetscotland.com/economy/861-world-renowned-economist-says-scotland-subsidising-rest-of-uk

There was quite a lenghty series of documentaries on that on bbc Alba, didn't make it to national broadcasting, surprise suprise.

it's interesting, isn't it, jenny? why are the institutions so scared of even discussing it? this should have been front page news.

FWIW - The Icelandic government is NOT "sticking two fingers up to their debt and concentrating on looking after their people.". They have twice been forced by their President ('cos he refused to sign-off two different Icesave Bills) to send the question to referendum by the people - and it is the Icelandic people who have refused the repayment plan. It's democracy in action.

They are not in principle opposed to paying the debt (even though it the equivalent of each of us being personally liable, to the tune of ?12,000 for debts that RBS incurred abroad) - just that they are still winding up the assets of the respective banks and that the private banks should be paying (and it is expected that those assets should ultimately cover the deposit guarantee that the UK and Dutch governments paid out). Anyway - it has now gone to court - and the result is not a foregone conclusion. FT article here

I also think that Iceland is ultimately going to come out of this stronger: they have had a really tough, IMF programme imposed on them for the last few years, there has been high inflation without wages going up, the Krona was devalued - yet people had debts (like mortgages and car loans) in Euros, so the repayments went sky high. They have also been concentrating on developing industries that make use of the resources that they do have (green, sustainable energy for one) - and won't ever go back into speculative banking.

MoreBeta, the main reason the Darien scheme was a failure was continual interference from England, ie, blockading with royal Naval vessels and banning their trading partners from trading with the Scots. The English did not want any rivals, no matter how small, competing with their colonial expansion, bearing in mind the fact that the Scots were more likely to cooperates with the French, for example. In the end, the Scots as a whole did well out of the British Empire so it wasn't all bad but the majority of the population were very against the act of union, there were many riots.

I hope they do become independent so we'll never have to suffer another scot running the country into the ground like the buffoons Blair and Brown

Actually - those two you are welcome to

I think that Scotland would have gone the way of Ireland and Iceland if the country had been independent at the time of the downturn.

Their deficit is similar to that of the rest of the UK (about 12% of GDP), but with a small population the ability to raise capital through taxation is limited.

With that in mind would Scotland have been able to borrow money from international markets at the AAA rate that the UK enjoyed, or would they have faced punishing interest rates?

I also think that an over-reliance on volatile oil markets is potentially calamitous, especially given that revenues from 'Scottish' oil is set to fall steadily until it disappears altogether in about 30 years.

that's even more interesting, prettybird.

earthworm, we don't just have oil, though, we have a rock-solid and much-loved global brand of a country, one that would imo be enhanced by independence.

More much-loved than Ireland?

Whatever happens, I hope that the scots manage the independence referendum better than the Uk managed the AV one. Devastating that important constitutional matters were determined by such an apology for a discussion.

I'd like to know what the procedure is. Does Salmond have to wait for a UK bill athorising a binding referendum before he can put it to the scottish electorate? Or does he go ahead with a referendum that will pres be non-binding (since the constitution is a reserved power) and then rely on the weight of a yes vote creating a political necessity for independence to be passed in UK parl?

well actually, i was having exactly this conversation with a friend of mine who has lived in north america for the last few years working as the editor of a travel magazine, and she said yes.

she thinks that ireland and the irish are over-exposed in the tourism market, that it is far from unusual to meet an irish person abroad (green card lottery etc) and that as a scot she always receives a much warmer welcome and more interest than her irish friends. (she lived in dublin for many years, so has pals coming over to visit).

while i agree that salmond might have walked us into a pile of celtic tiger poo back in the day, that won't happen now. and it's really ireland's govt that have sold their country out, in a way that iceland's didn't.

oh and the oil thing is a slight red herring. all that will happen as oil runs out globally is that the technology for retrieving it will improve and the price will rise. yes, people will look more to nuclear and natural energy to replace it, but we should be able to handle that, being a well-educated population living at the top of one of the windiest islands on the planet.

Since when was Blair Scottish?

I am not entirely convinced that Scotland will never again have to face an unexpected economic shock, or that the brand is anything special across the world, but you seem to be so I won't argue