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Politics

I am warming to AV

16 replies

longfingernails · 24/04/2011 14:12

I was dead set against it - but despite all the "progressive majority" nonsense peddled by Cable et al - the polling seems to suggest that it will cause Labour more damage than the Tories - Tory voters will happily back Lib Dems as a second preference in the north, but never Labour - but Lib Dems in Cornwall, Devon and leafier parts of London will certainly not give their second preference to Labour.

Add in the UKIP vote, which is stronger in such areas, and it could be the making of a golden century of small-c conservative rule for Britain - which FPTP mitigates against (for geographical rather than psephological reasons) to some extent. And of course, Australia seems to suggest that Conservatives can benefit from AV - John Howard, one of the true Conservative stalwarts of recent years, won many times under this system.

I will probably still vote no on principle - but if the AV polling in terms of raw Tory advantage continues to improve, I might have to ditch my principles and vote Yes to AV.

OP posts:
MotherSnacker · 24/04/2011 15:44

have you got a link?

longfingernails · 24/04/2011 15:46

It is mainly based on the surge in people saying they will vote UKIP in recent opinion polls (which you can find at ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/).

OP posts:
claig · 24/04/2011 15:56

Link to Tory HQ? I don't think LFN has.

MotherSnacker · 24/04/2011 16:06

My nan is a cornish lib dem voter. She would never put a Tory preference down.

I am in devon. Under av I would probably vote Green,Labour, lib dem.

Cornwall actually is quite deprived. Poorer people are not natural fans of the Tories. So a bit Hmm

claig · 24/04/2011 16:22

If you are a Green, Labour voter, I fully understand why you are Blush and Confused. Your nan sounds like she is a Coalition supporter, so she may well repppraise her second preference and vote Tory Smile

GiddyPickle · 24/04/2011 16:38

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

HHLimbo · 26/04/2011 13:45

Thats because they are all forced to vote tactically by FPTP. So noone actually knows, but for each person, AV will mean you can vote for who you really want, and your vote wont be wasted. No more second guessing how everyone else is voting.

GiddyPickle · 26/04/2011 13:59

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

MotherSnacker · 26/04/2011 17:28

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/av/this-is-our-chance-to-hurt-cameron-2274688.html

Labour voters should vote YES according to Mandelson. To hurt theTories.

munstersmum · 26/04/2011 17:50

All I can see is that people are all ready trying to vote for tactical reasons on whether a system of more tactical voting is desirable. If everyone would vote for what they thought truly best then we would have a representative democracy. I don't mind who people vote for but they shoiuld all get off their backsides & vote in every election.

Lilmeena · 26/04/2011 17:54

I was going to vote yes as I believe AV is a fairer system,
however weighing it all up, I'll be voting no.

MotherSnacker · 26/04/2011 18:15

I think AV is fairer. I was just not convinced by LFN's OP because why are the conservatives resisting it if it benefits them?

GiddyPickle · 26/04/2011 19:40

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Lilmeena · 26/04/2011 19:51

AV has not grabbed my attention enough to get me really interested , so although my initial response was yes, I will be taking advice from David Cameron and voting no.

meditrina · 26/04/2011 19:52

Mandelson's endorsement has rather put me off - especially as he's explicitly linking it to tactical advantage. I never thought I'd find myself saying this, but Reid and Beckett are talking more sense.

Paul88 · 26/04/2011 20:46

GiddyPickle and I have argued on several threads about whether you can vote tactically with AV.

The bottom line is that - yes you can - but only if you already know what everyone else is going to do. Otherwise the best option is to vote in order of preference - i.e. not tactically. The fact that in Oz parties distribute "how to vote" cards is irrelevant.

This is the most useful link:

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/2010/09/02/tactical-voting-isn%E2%80%99t-a-practical-strategy-in-alternative-vote-elections/

More interestingly:

I think it is true that noone really knows what the effect will be short term or long term. This is largely because people have to vote tactically at the moment and so it is unclear what will happen if they don't have to. It is certainly true that the change in hue of the LDs means that at the next election it is the right wing vote that will be split, so labour will probably lose out under AV. In the past - including the most recent general election - it was the left wing vote that was split.

Cable is trying to appeal to labour voters who are the ones who will make the decision on AV.

Having started out feeling like voting NO in the hope of Clegg getting sacked by the LDs and the coalition falling apart I have decided to vote YES as it is clearly the fairest way to elect a constituency MP. It is not PR - PR is incompatible with constituency MPs.

One big worry for people is that they don't like the current coalition's approach which is to throw away all manifesto pledges and make it up in back rooms. And that AV might increase the likelihood of coalitions as it decreases slightly the under representation of smaller parties.

I genuinely believe that coalition governments could be a good thing even though this one is not. This is why:

Since Thatcher governments have moved more and more to whipping MPs, making cabinet decisions in private and forcing them through parliament etc etc. I would MUCH prefer to see a parliament where the issues were actually discussed, MPs voted more on principle or (shock horror) in the interests of their constituents rather than because the party whips told them to (and bye bye government jobs if you rebel).

A coalition government clearly needs to have some 'coalition agreement' - enough to get a budget and at least some manifesto commitments of the biggest party through. But the detail and other issues would be better discussed in parliament, and we would end up with much better legislation if the biggest party had to publicly convince their coalition partners to vote with them.

This is Clegg's biggest mistake. He could have worked with the tories without having to take 'collective responsibility' for every cabinet decision.

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