Active discussions

Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Talk
Politics
Original poster

Economy shrinks by 0.5%. Georgie is blaming the weather

36 replies

LadyBlaBlah · 25/01/2011 11:07

A great opportunity for Georgie to repeat a pun of "we will not be blown off course by bad weather". He has said it 4 times already in a single interview. Seems a lame excuse - there is never just one factor.

He doesn't dare mention that elusive word confidence

OP posts:
Chil1234 · 25/01/2011 11:12

I know that Osborne-bashing is a fun pastime and everything but 'the weather' did have an impact in two important areas of the economy last month. Retail sales and construction.... both of which had been showing good growth previously. Realise it's not the full story but three weeks of chaos was bound to have an effect on trade.

Original poster
LadyBlaBlah · 25/01/2011 11:15

Yes indeed the weather I am sure contributed

Therefore I would wonder next how the government attempted to minimise the impact of the weather? Hmm

But amazingly we do agree that Osbourne bashing is indeed a fun pastime. Smile

OP posts:
BaroqueAroundTheClock · 25/01/2011 11:16

but don't we Brits blame everything on the weather - this isn't news Wink

Seriously though - I know we had bad weather for a couple of weeks - but would 3 or 4 weeks of disrupted trade really have such a dramatic impact on the economy over a quarter? I'm not really clued up on how they work all this stuff out but doesn't the fact that it shrunk by 0.5% (because of the 3/4 weeks of chaos) over the last quarter mean that perhaps things we already a little dicey?

Surely a strong growing economy wouldn't have shunk as a whole by that much over the entire period?

TheCrackFox · 25/01/2011 11:20

TBF the weather really didn't help but I honestly think the Tories are talking us into another recession.

Original poster
LadyBlaBlah · 25/01/2011 11:21

And the weather was no more prolonged than last year. It was colder which is what Georgie is saying - it was " the coldest for 100 years", but it wasn't necessarily for a longer period of time or deeper snow than early 2010.

OP posts:
Tolalola · 25/01/2011 11:22

From the BBC website

"The severe weather hit activity in the quarter, but the ONS said even if the weather impact had been excluded, activity would have been "flattish"."

Apparently a rise of between 0.2 and 0.6% had been expected, so this would have been an unexpectedly bad result, even without the weather.

FreeButtonBee · 25/01/2011 11:23

It did hit at a critical time for retail though - just before Christmas, which did have a massive impact on the busiest time of year for shopping. I know that a deal that my Oh was working on had a significant price adjustment because their Q4 sales were massively lower than expected because of the weather. Dunno about construction.

LilyBolero · 25/01/2011 11:51

four times in one interview!

I notice that this bad figure is 'entirely down to the weather', but the global recession was 'entirely down to Gordon Brown'.

Gideon has learnt his lines well...

Hullygully · 25/01/2011 11:53

It was the wrong kind of shrinkage

Original poster
LadyBlaBlah · 25/01/2011 11:56

I think he might be gorging on the Fray Bentos pies right now

OP posts:
littlebabynothing · 25/01/2011 11:59

maybe we had the wrong type of snow?

mycounty · 25/01/2011 11:59

The weather is 'partly' to blame as people couldn't get out to waste their money!

Niceguy2 · 25/01/2011 12:01

This really is a storm in a teacup.

We're talking about the UK economy. One of the largest in the world. As such its complex. We've got one set of unexpected figures of 0.5% (0% if you exclude the weather) over 3 months and people are using it to claim the cuts are all wrong.

The only thing which matter is the long term trend, not a one off set of figures. If the next one is bad....and the one after that. Then perhaps that will be more proof.

To be frank, given the cuts and uncertainty in the air right now, I'm surprised it was 0% at all.

I always thought the prospect of a double dip recession was likely no matter who was in charge or what came out of the poltician's mouths. You can't slash public spending by over 25% and not expect a short term blip.

Original poster
LadyBlaBlah · 25/01/2011 12:06

Complex yes, not just about the weather then?

OP posts:
Remotew · 25/01/2011 12:06

It was before Christmas one of the busiest in the retail calender. People will buy under normal circumstances whatever they weather. If they cannot get out they will shop online.

Cannot remember his name but an outgoing business leader said just yesterday that this government lack vision. Basically they are cutting this and that for ideological reasons and they haven't a clue what they are doing. It doesn't need an expert to tell us this.

sfxmum · 25/01/2011 12:08

well to be fair, as much as I dislike him, the weather was a big factor not to mention all the illnesses about, it certainly affected my spending

Original poster
LadyBlaBlah · 25/01/2011 12:10

Einstein's definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results..........

OP posts:
OhYouBadBadKitten · 25/01/2011 12:14

snorted on my tea at 'Einstein's definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results..' How true!

Chil1234 · 25/01/2011 12:18

"If they cannot get out they will shop online."

I know that December is a long time ago but don't you remember the major problems caused by the backlog of parcels and gifts not arriving in time for Christmas? Many were cancelled or returned. Many didn't even bother ordering. And supermarket online orders couldn't get through either.

LilyBolero · 25/01/2011 12:19

lol @ Einstein

If the next quarter shows contraction, then we're back in recession. Perhaps then Gideon might listen....

...but probably not.

sfxmum · 25/01/2011 12:23

you can do the same thing over and over again and expect different results if ' the same thing' is done under different circunstances/conditions , I would guess, plently of factors can affect outcome

Original poster
LadyBlaBlah · 25/01/2011 12:24

Einstein also said "Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either"

The snow, my arse.

OP posts:
sfxmum · 25/01/2011 12:25

I don't think there is any doubt that there will be a double dip recession, stronger excuses for deeper cuts too and we are all in this together Hmm bless

LilyBolero · 25/01/2011 12:44

Perhaps they will finally realise that you can 'do' economics by just saying the same thing over and over and hoping that makes it true (eg Child benefit cuts - tough but fair....but they're not fair....they're TOUGH but FAIR).

Or perhaps that is just hoping too much.

Remotew · 25/01/2011 13:49

I'm the most last minute person when it comes to Christmas shopping but must have ordered stuff on-line in good time this year as I received everything. We were hit with heavy snow twice in December but I somehow managed to spend as usual.

I will not be spending anything that isn't absolutely necessary in the next few months and reckon alot of people may feel the same. Be interesting to see what the growth figures are for the next quarter.