Labour will not campaign for AV

[longfingernails]

www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/nov/05/labour-will-not-campign-alternative-vote

I am still not completely sure about AV. On balance, I think I will vote to keep FPTP.

On the other hand, Labour were the only party to have AV in their manifesto. It is a bit rich of them not to campaign for it!

Their hope is obviously that the referendum is lost, and that it somehow splits the coalition. I can't see that happening - though perhaps Lib Dems troublemakers might feel they have more of an excuse to force the coalition's centre of gravity leftwards.

If Labour have decided to vote against it's because they realise it will keep them out of power. Lib-Dem voters are statistically less likely to choose a Labour candidate as their second choice and Tory voters definitely won't vote Labour as their second choice. So under AV the net result is more likely to be a re-run of the current coalition than anything else. Tories are seriously considering voting in favour I understand.

There is a real possiblity we may end up with a two party system anyway in the UK so whether it be a FTTP or AV system the election result will be virtually the same if we ae a two party system with some minority nationalist parties in Scotland, Wales, NI.

In my view, once the boundary changes occur Labour and LibDem may join (formally or informally) anyway after the next election. Labour clearly has done the calculation and with boundary changes has realised it may never get back into majority power again under AV.