Very strong +0.8% growth in Q3

[longfingernails]

Labour doommongering shown to be baseless, yet again.

From low exchange rates boosting manufacturing and exports. From improved private sector wages and employment. From high spending tourists attracted by the low FX rates. From recovery in financial services. From greater international demand, especially from India and China for some of our expert service industries. All sorts of places.

Not from the government though. The government's job is to create the conditions for growth, build as much growth-enhancing infrastructure as possible, and then get out of the way.

Yes the poorest spend the largest proportion of their money. But considering how many of them there are, they are a considerable chunk of consumer demand.

Sadly, I don't think the Chinese will have much demand for quangocrat diversity co-ordinators.

The poor diversity co-ordinator (no doubt also a union rep) may have to suffer until she decides to rejoin the real world.

What manufacturing? Thatcher got rid of all that! Our economy only has a trade surplus in services.

Why on earth would the private sector improve wages in an economy with increasing unemployment? I think you misunderstand the mechanisms of the labour market.

Boosts to demand from tourists? Seriously?

International demand is really a bad thing to rely upon right now, because as much as the Tories would prefer us to blame this crisis all on Labour, this is a world economic crisis. India? China? Are you for real?

I agree that the government's job is to create the conditions for growth, I think they've failed.

I really doubt the Chinese and Indians would come to us for any kind of services, they have no shortage of well-educated people.

The figures show strong growth in manufacturing.

Well-educated and skilled are very different, though they can overlap.

I know for a fact that I wouldn't trust the judgement of many people with PhDs as far as I could throw them.

The growth figures are reasonable but no better IMO. I've got to disagree with dizietsma though we really need to push into emerging markets in the world economy such as China and India as the emerging economys are in far better shape than the established economys eg USA. We need to maximise our exports into these markets if we are to get growth in the next decade.

"really doubt the Chinese and Indians would come to us for any kind of services, they have no shortage of well-educated people."

there are things beter done by the UK than China (don't know about India) - it is a dictatorship and there are services simply unavailable there - particularly in financial services. the company i work for has Chinese clients (that supply UK companies) for that reason.

i was listening to the radio and the weakness of the pound has served to boost exports.

also, there was a long hot period in july and that always serves to boost spending.

I'm hoping this will be the end, or at least the beginning of the end. I had forecast 5 years of downslide - in 2007. still looks a bit on the optimistic side though.

There will be another boost to trade in the final Q of 2010 as consumers bring forward purchases to beat the January VAT rise. Manufacturing industries are still re-stocking. Sterling is weaker against Euro at the same time and many of the Eurozone countries are picking up. Interest rates are still historically low. Private sector is recruiting again having shed workers in the 2009-10 period. Public sector job-losses are being staggered over four years and a lot can happen in that time. I think there's more to be optimistic about than in the recent past, quite honestly.

Last quarter there was growth of 1.2%. This quarter was 0.8% growth

What is there to celebrate? I have missed something obviously

And despite the fake celebration, haven't the government been telling us that the country is fucked and thus the dire need for cuts - which apparently are going to stimulate growth. Still not sure how cuts stimulate growth but hey ho, all very confusing.

In the last week retail sales were reported to have disappointed by coming in 0.8% lower than expected in September.

It is very likely that the UK will go into a recession again in Q1 2011 with public spendng cuts. The consumer is 70% of the economy so retail sales matter. At best the economy is bumping along the bottom.

LadyBlaBla Cuts stimulate growth by boosting productivity and by getting rid of the dead hand of the State. I have no great desire for Labour's colossal interest bill on our national debt to go up even faster than it is doing.

Cutting public spending also allows lower taxes, eventually. Low taxes mean more inward investment, more entrepreneurs, more tax generating private sector jobs.

At the moment ths share of GDP spent by the State is around 50%. That should be cut back to around 35%, at the most.

Lady B

To quote my earlier post:

"It appears to be the biggest q3 growth in 10 years"

The point being that Osborn's first round of cuts haven't (yet) killed economic growth. But it's early days and you can always hope .

"LadyBlaBla Cuts stimulate growth by boosting productivity and by getting rid of the dead hand of the State"

What evidence do you have that cuts stimulate growth? You can't just say it and expect it to be true.

LadyBlaBla Private sector productivity has improved hugely over the last few decades; the public sector is still bloated and inefficient - the figures on NHS productivity, despite the mountain of cash Labour shoved in, are truly horrific.

Productive economies grow fast. Cutting unproductive state spending will improve the productivity of the economy as a whole, if only by making tax cuts possible.

It's strange, isn't it. All those millions pumped into the "union modernisation fund" over the last few years have had precious little impact on union productivity...

You sound like a conservative party political broadcast......

even your beloved times only says it "fuels hopes" of avoiding a double-dip recession,not that it dosen't mean it won't happen.

I think todays growth figures are very good when you consider this is the highest amount of growth in this quater for the last 10 years. One thing that does worry me for the future is inflation it is too high and it has been too high for the last couple of years and this could cause problems further down the line.

I disagree with many, many Conservative policies. I am obviously, though, a Tory voter.

I thought about joining the party but paying £25 a year to a political party seems a bit much. I might help Boris in 2012 by delivering leaflets and going canvassing - though I have never done it before!

huddspur Yes, and the VAT rise will just add to inflationary pressures. Hopefully the public spending cuts will help control inflation though.

The NHS is not a money making machine and cannot be compared to private sector companies

And if so, why have the Tories not cut spending in the NHS?

I don't think a double dip recession is going to happen but growth may be quite low for a few years as the cuts in public spending take effect. However the cuts are essential to maintain investor and market confidence or we could end up with a greek style firestorm and the loss of our credit rating.

Consumer confidence is at rock bottom since the government started to tell everyone we are verging on bankruptcy and in the worst situation ever and ever amen.

That is what you Tories never mention. It is the white elephant in the room apparently

Unfortunately all the hard measures you talk of are nothing without consumer confidence

I would cut the NHS.

The NHS is being protected for political reasons, but there is plenty of fat there.

As for confidence - well, we have been taken off the credit downgrade risk list because of the government's strong deficit reduction plans. That will do quite a lot for business confidence.

Consumers will also bring forward Q1 spending into Q4 to avoid the VAT rise.

In many ways, Q1 and Q2 next year are going to be the most dangerous times in the next 4 or 5 years. If we can get through those few months, and assuming global growth continues at a reasonable pace, even if it doesn't come from America and/or Europe, we should be OK.

I personally will not be cutting back on my spending on Christmas from last year.