limonejelly, it really is an incredibly huge area [housing] and impacts and is impacted by so many things.
However, I am very worried about the future of housing in the country as it is already so dire for so many.
You are right, that the main problem is the lack of social housing full stop. The way I see it is that the tories sold it all and then the labour governemnt tried to build more, set up plans for key workers etc but it wasn't enough and then the downturn started. if there were more new builds,the cost of housing would go down and so would housing benefit. more new builds also means production, which also means employment, again saving money in the long run.
in response to your points I think the following:
capping of housing benefits: do you mean the 50% being reduced to 30% or the cap in benefit overall? [me being thick]. either way, great swathes of people will be forced out of london and other more expensive places, they will be unable to afford decent housing, there will be more overcrowding in homes, it will increase the homelessness budget, see a lot more rent arrears, a lot more debt and acute poverty ? and then more homelessness.
In the near future housing benefit will be less due to the change in relating to the different indexes, it will also be further 10% reduced if you are on JSA for than a year. So, where and how do people make up the shortfall? Will landlords be more likely or less likely to accept someone on housing benefit? The answer is that it will be much harder to find a private landlord to accept you and i expect they will change contracts, there will undoubtedly be lots of people moving around a lot more and more homelessness.
There is also the issue of house builders. They are incentivised in part to build for 'shared ownership' and they are encouraged by buy to let people too [whose tennants get HB] as well as 'normal buyers'. so the knock on effect of the changes to benefits and housing benefits will have an effect on building too and of course, without careful planning and other measures this will result in less production, less employment and less money for more people [fewer buyers]. It is probably quite a simplistic view, but there is so much to be done to sort it all out and i cannot see how capping it will help anyone-not the landlord, not the rentor, not the deficit, not the HB administrator, not the country! Of course I could be wrong and many may disagree.
About reassessing peoples need to live in their council home or housing assoc house...not sure. it sounds good in the first instance, but what about if for example, you have children with big age gaps. say one leaves home and the other 2 are still at the local school and there is no other housing in the area? they have to leave school, move, loose friends, communities etc to move into a one lesser bedroomed house? what if your husband walks out? same again? it's tricky and again other measures need to be in place as well as availiable housing stock to make it ok i guess-or am i being too idealistic?
lastly, where will the old people go? i dont know. will their children have room for them? if not i have no idea. maybe a 'halls of residence' type place-shared kitchen, breeze block rooms, shared loo with 20 other old people? cammeron said in his manefesto he would reward those in old age who made the right choices and saved. i guess for a lot of elderly in social housing it will be awful and i dread to think how they may have to live in the future. it is scary stuff and i will probably be one of them.
sorry for going on and on, and off the topic a bit, but housing is a bit of an issue with me!