Petition link to close schools

Having caught back up, Alternativeperspective has saved me the trouble of typing the majority.

It only demonstrates the lack of critical thinking behind the hysteria when posters refer to keeping nurses and the police in work. With all due respect to both, the NHS and society depend on a hell of a lot more people. From the people that produce the food for patients, to the manufacturers of plastic syringes, and delivery companies.

Perhaps if schools do close, all the sahps/ part timers/ those happy & able to jack in work etc that form the main body of those in favour of closing schools could be made responsible for providing community childcare. After all there was the suggestion up thread that teachers should do their duty so essential workers could send dc to school. It would be far more practical, and equal if all those whom are, or are planning to be economically inactive provided that service. Barring of course carers and those with disabilities.

Other countries are managing with school closures.
There is no doubt it will be hard, there will be difficulties there will be shortages.
However think how bad things will be if 80% of working people are all off sick for one month plus all at once overlapping over a short term period of around three months.
No one is proposing to close school for a jolly holiday. It is science based and the lesser of two evils.
Drastic times call for drastic measures.

Apologies for the lack of punctuation in my post above.

It's not that people are 'happy to jack in work' it's that a response of being denial is likely to lead to worse outcomes. All the statistics and infection rates globally show we are at a tipping point. It's not about being easy. It's about saving lives.

However think how bad things will be if 80% of working people are all off sick for one month plus all at once overlapping over a short term period of around three months.

The worst case estimate suggests that yes, in total 80% of the population would get it, but only up to 1 in 5 of the population would be ill at one time. Otherwise the whole thing would be over in a fortnight!
Drastic times call for drastic measures but 200 people is not drastic. It's likely to spread anyway and what then - healthcare workers, single parents on the poverty line and more, having to take yet more weeks off for.quarantines, for being ill themselves and then again to care for others? Society will end up worse affected by a recession, by poverty and job loss, by blighted educations, more than by the illness itself.

Thanks @Kokeshi123 no choice but to go now really - we spent over 5k on the trip now - non refundable hotels, flights, rail pass!!

Being quiet doesn’t bother me - we hadn’t lots of super touristy activities booked! So that aspect is ok!

I suppose once we can wander around, eat lots of food and at least we are staying in lovely hotels so it will be a treat/ relaxing?

It’s go and have a quieter less activity based trip - or lose all the money and have no trip at all!

What can I do!

Cheers for the info x

TheMagicians Just as soon as we have any figures on how many lives will be saved by closing schools, versus how many will be risked when parents can't work, we'll be able to make a rational decision.

We can project those figures by looking at the countries that have had a proactive response versus a reactive one. There's no good scenario here - people are going to get ill; people are going to die; the economy and our infrastructure are going to struggle. There's only different degrees of bad outcomes.
I think we have to be pragmatic about it.

School is not child care, as parents of children with special needs who regularly get called in to collect them unfortunately already know.

A short school closure of a few weeks is far better and less disruptive than the alternative.

No, school is not childcare and while I do agree with you that closure may be better than the alternative, I am really concerned about my D.C. who is about to sit their Highers if the schools do close. For kids who have exams starting next month, closure could be a disaster.

Hong Kong has 107 confirmed cases to date.
In a population of 7.4 million.
If their population was 66 million, that would be like having 900 cases.
Right now UK has about 210 cases.
In a population of 66 million.
Soooooo... I know where seems to have had more cases adjusting for popn size.

(same kind of math applies for Sinagpore, 130 cases in popn of 5.6 mln)

The most sensible advice would be for the over 70’s to stay at home, plus anyone else from a high risk group

Yeah, and close the borders and expel the forriners

If they close the schools there will be absolute panic. They'll put off a decision like that until it's really necessary.

200 odd cases. Really not worth disrupting society to such a huge extent at the moment.

Hong Kong had one new case today, only three yesterday. Their outbreak started weeks before ours and they have it under control. The % rate of infection is higher, obviously, but their outbreak has clearly been managed better than ours. We had forty-odd cases both days.

School is considered childcare for the purpose of requiring women of school age children to work. No spousal maintenace, no benefits for Mums at home. Therefore, to keep a roof over our heads, we must work.

Unless the govt is going to top up child benefit with a special "quarantine stipend", what are single mothers with no family help supposed to do? How are they to pay rent/mortgage, pay gas, water, council tax, buy food and medicine?

Unless there is some special payment coming, I can't see how this will work in a country like the UK where so few have family help to raise children and so many children have feckless, absent Dads.

China had 100 new cases today in a population of 1.3bn vs 45 new cases in the UK in a population of 66m.

Perhaps if schools do close, all the sahps/ part timers/ those happy & able to jack in work etc that form the main body of those in favour of closing schools could be made responsible for providing community childcare

But.. doesnt that kinda defeat the object if closing schools?

Kids are still gonna mix out of school. Esp kids of parents who have no choice but to work!

Latest research on transmission supportive of school Closures: twitter.com/doctorsoumya/status/1236378362886660096?s=21

You can project the figures for coronavirus perhaps. Can you project the figures for the impact of people being unable to work because they don't have childcare? Both on a personal level, and the consequences for infrastructure and the economy? Because at the moment the risks from corona are looking significantly less.

This is highlighting the economic vs social cost argument. It is coming to light that some countries find loss of life more troublesome than economic cost, whereas countries such as the U.K. emphasise individual rights and economics over collective wellbeing.

But you realise the not working/economic hit is going to happen anyway? You either take it with a largely healthy population that can get back to work quickly. Or you wait & take it when people are really sick & your health system is fucked. Median age in ICU in Italy is now 46. We really really do not want to be Italy.

Yes it is going to happen anyway. I think the U.K. government is waiting until social pressure becomes so much that schools are forced to close, meaning that the economic disruption caused by huge social change (for a limited time period) is not attributed to them.

The talk of closing schools is not including isolating children so they will still be out and about but all day.Teens will be off and around town in groups.Children will be at soft play,parks,playgrounds.
Closing universities,do all the overseas students go home for their break and then come back from wherever they've been when uni opens again?
If you close schools you have to close everything.
However parents with children with health problems that make them vunerable should be allowed to withdraw their children without penalty.

Collective well being and the economy aren't two separate areas.

I am also wondering what happens to children whose parents get the virus as at present the parent would have to move to one of the treatment hospitals.This would affect all children up to 17ish as they'd be all be for at least 2 weeks.

If schools are closed, soft play will be closed too ffs. In parks and playgrounds you can maintain 2m distance.

Also, if children do mix it will be with a few others rather than with 1000 others in close proximity.

In China, they closed basically everything except supermarket and pharmacies. Life as they knew it was over for a while, it will be the same here, sooner or later - it will be lockdown or breakdown one or the other. Breakdown results in more deaths, but lockdown may be culturally less acceptable as it would need to happen earlier. People are in denial.

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries?utm_campaign=SciMag&utm_source=JHubbard&utm_medium=Facebook