Is there a difference between these phrases?

[HoollyWugger]

" Schools are not expected to open ..." and "Schools are expected not to open..."

It's turning my brain to mush trying to explain a possible difference!

The first suggests we don't think schools will open (reporting the likelihood).

The second could mean the same, but suggests we think schools should not open.

There's something jarring though, isn't there, like a split infinitive?

It is different, but the more I read the less I can explain.

First is absence of expectation
Second is expectation of a negative event

Logically speaking:
If I toss a fair coin, I don't expect it to land heads. After all, it could equally well land tails: expecting it to land heads would be irrational.

But that doesn't mean that I thereby expect it NOT to land heads. After all, not landing heads would mean it landed tails, and I shouldn't expect it to land tails any more than I should expect it to land heads.

But, pragmatically speaking, I'll bet the ordinary user of these sentences isn't making these kinds of fine distinctions.

Excellent example :)

First: the author is telling you that their or the general perception is that schools will not open.

Second: can be read as above or additionally the imposition of an expectation on the school, with the decision now resting with them.

Thank you so much!

Although I've read the word "expected" so many times now it's turned into a nonsense word

Although I've read the word "expected" so many times now it's turned into a nonsense word

When I read your OP I thought oh that’s straightforward. By the time I revisited it to check my understanding it had turned to nonsense

Schools are not expected to open ..."
They don't have to and probably won't open.
"Schools are expected not to open..." schools won't open. Eg not permitted.