You go by your gut feeling and if you love it. I can’t say it’s something I gave much thought to. It was more a matter of picking a house we loved that would give us the right lifestyle and an area of the country that felt right for us in terms of things to do, quality of life, safety, commute. We’ve done lots of small moves (within 10 minutes), but only 1 big move, to 2 hours away.
We chose the area because of the quality of life, things to do, how easy it would be fus to commute, affordability, and how much we loved the house. It’s slightly different here as we aren’t locked into a choice of primary (several options, none oversubscribed). I visited a couple and liked them both, we chose the closest and because it was slightly bigger.
In terms of schools though, it’s very changeable. When we moved here, our secondary was Ofsted outstanding (old report), a couple years later when my eldest started, it’s requiring improvement. 🤷🏻♀️ You can plan and worry all you want, but you can’t control everything.
But yes, you’re overthinking it. Live your life. Make friends. Create a community. So what if you move? My dd still keeps in touch with her friends from years ago in primary who are now two counties over.