Jānis Urbanovičs. There is no harm in being scared!
On the 1st of March the diplomatic reality has changed and there is no need to question it. The most important thing is our political elite's reaction. Will they, as always, start intimidating everyone around and asking NATO for more security guarantees? Or after all our top politicians will understand that there is a better option to stop the eloquence and begin the work to reduce tensions.
The world, Europe and of course Latvia itself, took the annual address of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Federal Assembly in different ways. Some saw nothing else but show-off and bluff ahead of the election campaign. The rest believe it was a start of a new arms race and Washington has already answered the call.
But the keynote of Russian President's speech to the loud applause was a clear and well considered call to the Golden Billion - to the entire western world with all its rules and values. It was an imperative demand to take Russia as she is without crossing the red lines and proposing the country as enemy to the US and EU.
No one considers communist China, or Wahhabi Saudi Arabia, or the New-Ottoman Turkey as the enemy of the West. Even Egypt, with its one of a kind democracy of General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, not on the list. Both Washington and Brussels take them with all their oddities. POTUS was angry because of cheap steel exports, but not because of one-party system or Internet censorship. Russia presses the point, and very likely, will get the desired respect.
It is hoped that among all NATO decisions in the nearest future, the restraint will become the key feature. It will help to keep space for maneuver in relations with Kremlin and prevent the security risks turning into a real nightmare. Driving Russia into a corner will be a fatal mistake because every experienced hunter knows what a despaired beast can do...
From now on the West has two ways to go - beside a peaceful scenario, a military one is in the list. Foreign policy of Eastern Europe, and especially in the Baltic states, falls back on George W. Bush's legacy where America is the policeman of the world ready to punish every offender, even potential one, who tries to break their one and the only order. The recent rumble between Trump and North Korea is the evidence par excellence.
That's exactly why Latvia and its neighbors always try to solve their foreign policy challenges by frightening their societies with the menace coming from the East. That's how NATO membership was obtained, the same way the EU referendum was held and even euro accepted as national currency.
After Crimea's annexation the horrification of people reached the highest level of dramatics, and it became really annoying. As a security guarantee they asked to bring NATO troops, turning them into hostages.
So what will happen now, after the 1st of March, what will be the next steps of our President and National Security Council? Will they set the alarm and ask for more hostages, or they will ask NATO to place here a tactical nuclear weapon?
However, the tinder box being created for the sake of Baltics security may explode between NATO and Russia. If this happens, Latvia and the Baltic states will turn into a battleground of two military powers. Something may go wrong, whether it is a stressed soldier accidently pulling the trigger, or an aircraft approaching too close to another one, or a political radical behind the provocation designed to finally cut the Gordian knot.
In this case we, the Latvians, will turn into dust. The same for our song contests, Freedom Monument, Māra of Latgale and Rēzekne Gors, Dainu skapis and Slītere National Park and many more. Unlikely those who will survive will be satisfied with the fact that our guys secured a victory.
Well, consider me an alarmist, but the continuous pumping of hybrid or real war turned to a habituation. Sense of threat became blunt and we can't even imagine is it possible to all these evils to come true.
Now it is time for politicians to fear, maybe life instinct will force them to lay down the weapons. The example of South Korean diplomacy which started separate negotiations with Pyongyang came right in time. For decades they lived in conditions of possible aggression. Millions of landmines were placed in the ground and military budget was bloating just because the government relied on America's help and continuous presence of US forces.
People were so much scared of possible communist invasion that they were burning flags of their neighbors and dolls of all Kim family. (In our case we limited ourselves to a cross with a mannequin that reminds Putin). By the time when Kim Jong-un and Trump began to show whose red button is bigger, the politicians in Seoul have a fright of their life. They realized that POTUS has both ambitions and options to put Kim Jong-un into historical dump, but the same time the whole Korean Peninsula will be grinded into dust. At this moment scared politicians understood that the time for diplomatic steps has come not to give the initiative into hands of a powerful but very cranky ally.
If we can't ease the tensions so maybe we should stay out of the way and let the ones who can do their job. The Western governments since the cold war know how to get along with ideologically hostile neighbors. Finland's experience is a good example - they know not only how to be a border state, but also how to make profit of it.
Much to the consternation of Baltic political elite, the core Europe sees a lot of ways to lure the bear again - using Moscow's ambitions in favor of EU countries. Denying the real politics and engaging sabotage would be the height of irresponsibility. For border states and nations like us, there will be always a fear of what will happen if the enemy comes...
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