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Original poster

If you have two children of the same sex, are you statistically more likely to have a third child of the same sex??

62 replies

Beetroot · 28/01/2006 13:03

I have a bet on this!!!!

OP posts:
mears · 28/01/2006 13:05

I would say not. You have the same chance of having either sex each time you conceive IMO.

SoupDragon · 28/01/2006 13:05

Statistically, yes but it's an average for everyone IYSWIM. Some people who have 2 the same will have had 2 the same because of a predisposition to that sex. These skew the statistics.

Obviously some who have 2 the same have 2 the same simply because of the standard 50/50 odds and these still have a 50/50 chance of having either sex next time.

collision · 28/01/2006 13:06

Yes, I think so.

I have 2 boys and KNOW I would have a 3rd boy.

Not that it matters.

Most people I know have a family with all the same sex children.

One lady had 6 boys!!!!

Original poster
Beetroot · 28/01/2006 13:08

I want statisitcs though as I agree with Mears

OP posts:
Enid · 28/01/2006 13:13

let you know in May

gomez · 28/01/2006 13:16

This might help Beety sex selection

SoupDragon · 28/01/2006 13:16

Thing is though, Beety, you can prove anything with statistics.

gomez · 28/01/2006 13:24

Think it can get skewed however as couples with 2 same sex children are more likely to go on and have a third therefore the stats are unevenly weighted and you could need to normalise.

In general if you took each pregancy in isolation you have a 50/50 situation more or less. But if you refer to other factors (i.e. previous children) then you are more likely to have another of the same sex - i think!

Prufrock · 28/01/2006 13:30

Once you have 2 boys, you still have a 50:50 chance of having a boy/girl in your next pregnancy.

However, stastitically speaking you do have less of a chance of having 3 same sex babies.

Starting from no children, and knowing your end outcome is 3. you could have:

Boy, Boy, Boy
Boy, Boy, Girl
Boy, Girl, Boy
Boy, Girl, Girl
Girl, Boy, Boy
Girl, Boy, Girl
Girl, Girl, Boy
Girl, Girl, Girl

So you have a 12.5% chance of having 3 girls, a 12.5% chance of having 3 boys, a 37.5% chance of having 2 Boys and a girl, and a 37.5% chance of having 2 girls and a boy.

That means your chance of having a mixed sex family is 75%, and a single sex family only 25%

SoupDragon · 28/01/2006 13:31

But that doesn't take into account and predisposition to one sex which some couples do have.

cod · 28/01/2006 13:31

Message withdrawn

Prufrock · 28/01/2006 13:39

No soupdragon - it's purely the maths side.

SoupDragon · 28/01/2006 13:51

I think it's one of those statistics that, whilst technically true across the population, isn't necessary true on an individual basis.

JanH · 28/01/2006 13:53

There was a thing about this on the radio this week - not just about 3rd child after 2, but explaining all those families who have BBBBBBBBG or GGGGGGGGGB - they really only wanted one of each but kept going until they got one!

What Prufrock said is what the prog said - basically 50:50 each time.

Hausfrau · 28/01/2006 14:01

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Dottydot · 28/01/2006 14:04

lesbian couples are statistically 2/3rds more likely to have boys apparently - because if you try to conceive exactly when you've ovulated you're more likely to have a boy (male sperm swimming faster and all that...). And because same sex couples (and maybe IVF couples?) usually have limitations on how/when they try they tend to go for the day of/after ovulation. This is certainly the case for us - 2 ds's and our friends - lesbian couple and have 2 boys!

If we were to go for a 3rd I think we'd try to conceive a few days before ovulation - give the female sperm a chance..!

tamum · 28/01/2006 14:09

Soupy has it right- there are genetic factors that can predispose to one sex or another. It's only the case in a proportion of couples, so it's impossible to know on an individual basis, but on balance the chances are just slightly higher of going on to have more of the same sex.

tamum · 28/01/2006 14:10
NatalieJane · 28/01/2006 14:13

My mum had 5 girls, all of her Grandkids are boys, my eldest sister had a m/c (unknown sex), then a healthy boy, and another m/c (a girl), my next sister had a healthy boy, then 4 m/c's (3 girls and 1 unknown sex) and then a healthy boy, and I have had one healthy boy, maybe whole families can be predispositioned to a certain sex?

tortoiseshell · 28/01/2006 14:13

I think Soup Dragon is right - if you've had 2 of the same sex, then you may be someone who is genetically more likely to have that sex, so statistically a third child is more likely to be the same. If you've had 2 different, then you're probably not someone who is genetically more likely to have the same sex. Of course you MAY have had 2 of the same sex on 50-50 odds, so the statistics are purely statistics, not probability!

lucyep · 28/01/2006 15:26

I had 2 girls and then went on to have a boy

Mud · 28/01/2006 15:26

2 boys 1 gril

HellyBelly · 28/01/2006 15:27

My friend had 3 girls then a boy (although 5 m/c's too, not sure of sexes)

mears · 28/01/2006 18:10

I am one of 5 girls.

My sister had 4 girls.

My younger sister had girl, boy, girl.

I had 3 boys and 1 girl.

hub2dee · 28/01/2006 21:32

My mum is one of 8 girls, 7 survived childhood. I have aunties all over the place !

Grandmere was busy hey, and her husband died young !

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